The Colorado Rockies (45-71) and St. Louis Cardinals (58-58) meet again tonight at Busch Stadium after the Cardinals took the series opener 3-2.
Colorado is tied for the worst record in baseball and sits four games behind the San Francisco Giants for fourth place in the NL West.
St. Louis has worked its way back to an even .500 despite carrying a minus-9 run differential. The Cardinals are 14 games behind in the NL Central, but remain just 3.5 games out of the final National League Wild Card spot.
The standings suggest a fairly wide gap between these teams. The matchup itself is a little more interesting.
Colorado has been the better offensive team, while St. Louis has been more complete and efficient defensively. Neither bullpen has been a particular strength.
The Cardinals frustrated the Rockies throughout Friday’s opener. Colorado finished with 10 hits but went 0-for-10 with runners in scoring position, allowing St. Louis to win despite collecting only four hits of its own.
That puts some added weight on a starting pitching matchup featuring two left-handers coming off excellent outings.
Kyle Freeland will try to even the series for Colorado.
Freeland enters at 3-10 with a 6.81 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and 93 strikeouts across 108.1 innings.
Those numbers look nothing like his last start.
Freeland threw the first complete game of his career against the Kansas City Royals, allowing one run on five hits while striking out eight in an 8-1 victory.
The way he did it was also notable.
Freeland generated 19 whiffs on 55 swings, well above his season norm. His knuckle curve did most of the damage, producing eight misses on 12 swings and accounting for five of his eight strikeouts.
He also changed his pitch distribution.
Freeland threw his sinker 22% of the time after using it only 7% this season. His four-seamer and sweeper usage both came down, while the cutter remained his most frequently used pitch.
Freeland has used six pitches this season, mixing the four-seamer, cutter, sinker, knuckle curve, changeup and sweeper. His fastball results have been poor overall, but his command has remained a strength. His 4.7% walk rate ranks among the best in baseball.
The question tonight is whether some of what worked against Kansas City carries into St. Louis.
Matthew Liberatore will make the start for the Cardinals.
Liberatore enters at 5-8 with a 4.97 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and 107 strikeouts across 108.2 innings.
He is also coming off one of his best performances of the season.
Liberatore held the Toronto Blue Jays scoreless for six innings, allowing one hit and striking out seven.
Like Freeland, the shape of the outing was a little different from his season-long profile.
Liberatore’s four-seam fastball has been one of his least effective pitches this year, but Toronto missed five times on 11 swings against it. Four of his seven strikeouts came on four-seamers.
He also leaned more heavily on his slider and convinced Toronto hitters to chase 40% of his pitches outside the strike zone, well above his 29.8% season chase rate.
Liberatore works with six pitches, led by a 94.4 mph four-seamer and slider. He also mixes in a curveball, changeup, sinker and cutter.
The arsenal gives him ways to miss bats, especially when hitters help him outside the zone. The season results have been less convincing. His fastball and breaking-ball results have both been poor, while his offspeed pitches have been the strongest part of his profile.
Liberatore’s arsenal can still make the Rockies uncomfortable, particularly if they expand the zone and let his secondary pitches dictate the at-bat. But his season numbers also suggest opportunities if Colorado can force him back over the plate and handle the fastball when it comes.
That was the missing piece Friday. The Rockies created traffic but could not turn it into enough offense.
Tonight, the larger question sits on the mound. Does Freeland look more like the pitcher who dominated Kansas City, or the one who has struggled for much of the season? And does Liberatore carry over the version that overwhelmed Toronto, or fall back toward the uneven profile his season numbers suggest?
We’ll find out which versions show up tonight.
The details…
First Pitch: 5:15 p.m. MDT
TV: Rockies.TV
Radio: KOA 850 AM/94.1 FM
Cardinals SB Nation site: Viva El Birdos
Lineups:
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