Has anyone watched a Big 12 game this year and enjoyed it? Too bad. That shouldn’t matter. Not enough people made the same decision you did. That’s right. It’s late October and it’s time for Ratings Discourse.
This should come as a surprise to no one, but the Big 12 isn’t doing great in the tv ratings department this year. The SEC is the king of television, and the Big Ten is lagging behind. To be honest, the SEC cracked the code. Can you remember the last time a non-SEC game was broadcast on ABC? I certainly can’t. This year is the year that ESPN decided to stop messing around and go all-in on their $3 billion investment. FOX has spent plenty of money on the Big Ten, and while they have surprised by electing a couple of Big 12 hosts for Big Noon Kickoff this year, it’s about time for Ohio State and Michigan to dominate that timeslot on that network for the rest of the year.
I am not naive. I know that the Big 12 wouldn’t rate as high if we were on a network all day, every Saturday. The “brands” are consolidated in different conferences. But it is pretty easy to see why the other conferences lead the way, when they are literally the only ones shown on network tv. The Big 12 and the ACC are relegated to cable, which less households have. If you want to identify a cause, that’s it. As a football fandom, we also have to stop focusing on how many people watch certain schools. It’s the stupidest argument and the worst way to pay attention to college football. I’ve never watched a game and thought to myself, “This is fun, but it would be more fun if 10 million people were watching.” Just watch the games and celebrate this sport for what it is. And lastly, if the Big Ten wants to get in bed with private equity, good luck. The bottom half of that conference is signing their death warrant if that’s the route they choose to go.
Anyway, enough ranting. Speaking of enjoying college football for what it is, it’s the best sport to gamble on, even if it is impossible to predict. I’ve been treading water on the picks for the last couple of weeks. It feels like now is as good of a time as any to picks things up again. Let’s win some games.
THE GAMES
Kansas State (3-4, 2-2) at Kansas (4-3, 2-2)
Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: TNT | The Line: Kansas -3.5 | O/U: 55.5
Kansas State has won this game I think 37 years in a row. There is absolutely no way you’ll catch me betting on Kansas in this matchup until they win it. I could be wrong here, but that’s a chance I’m willing to take.
Pick: Kansas State +3.5
#11 BYU (7-0, 4-0) at Iowa State (5-2, 2-2)
Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: FOX | The Line: Iowa State -2.5 | O/U: 48.5
Well, look. There’s only one way to bet this game, and that’s to take Iowa State. There could not be a bigger letdown spot for BYU, and with the Cyclones off a bye week. Iowa State even has a healthy kicker! Now here’s the part that scares me: BYU is the most physical team on our schedule, and our run defense is not in a good place, especially with Dom Orange unlikely to play. Let’s hope we can jump out to a lead and force the freshman QB to beat us with his arm. I’m not sure he can do that.
Pick: Iowa State -2.5
Oklahoma State (1-6, 0-4) at #14 Texas Tech (6-1, 3-1)
Kickoff: 3:00pm | TV: ESPNU | The Line: Texas Tech -36.5 | O/U: 54.5
Sheesh. This might be the biggest spread we’ll ever see in a Big 12 with an improved Kansas and no Oklahoma. I know Tech is starting a backup QB here but that shouldn’t affect how easily they’ll run the ball on Okie State. There’s no parade of banana costumes to save them this week. Give me Tech, by a whole lot.
Pick: Texas Tech -36.5
Baylor (4-3, 2-2) at #21 Cincinnati (6-1, 4-0)
Kickoff: 3:00pm | TV: ESPN2 | The Line: Cincinnati -3.5 | O/U: 67.5
Bet it and forget it. They cannot make the total high enough on this game for me to not take the over. Both defenses are bad and both offenses are really good. Next!
Pick: Over 67.5
TCU (5-2, 2-2) at West Virginia (2-5, 0-4)
Kickoff: 5:00pm | TV: ESPN+ | The Line: TCU -16.5 | O/U: 56.5
I’m not going to look back at it, but I’m pretty sure I’ve faded West Virginia in every game since beating Pitt, and they continue to not cover. No reason that trend shouldn’t continue here, even at home. This is just not a good football team.
Pick: TCU -16.5
#24 Arizona State (5-2, 3-1) at Houston (6-1, 3-1)
Kickoff: 7:00pm | TV: ESPN2 | The Line: Arizona State -7 | O/U: 46.5
Is Houston the most disrespected team in the country? They sure might be. They’re 6-1 with only a loss to Texas Tech, and nobody is looking at them as a threat to win anything, or even close to the Top 25. Arizona State doesn’t blow anybody out, and Willie Fritz is a great coach. That’s a recipe for a close game.
Pick: Houston +7
Colorado (3-4, 1-3) at Utah (5-2, 2-2)
Kickoff: 9:15pm | TV: ESPN | The Line: Utah -13.5 | O/U: 49.5
Much in the same way that BYU is due for an emotional letdown, I think Utah is in the same boat. They put a ton into that game, and didn’t come through. Now they take on an inferior opponent at home. I would not be surprised at all to see Utah get off to a slow start. I don’t think Colorado can win this outright, but they’ll keep it within the number.
Pick: Colorado +13.5
BEST BET AROUND THE COUNTRY
Memphis/USF Over 58.5
This is another game that the total could not be set high enough. These programs just scream “over”. USF in particular should put up close to 40 themselves. I’m really looking forward to seeing how this one goes. The winner should be in the pole position for the G5 playoff spot.
Enjoy the games!
Season Record: 38-31-1 (+3.9 units)
