Coming off back-to-back narrow 3-2 victories over Hoffenheim and Villarreal, two games which, quite frankly, had a bit of everything, Dortmund would surely welcome a more comfortable scoreline this weekend. Paderborn, who earned promotion after pulling the chair on Wolfsburg over two legs, have yet to beat Borussia Dortmund in a competitive setting and are listed as the team with the lowest total market value in the Bundesliga. This matchup certainly has some hallmarks of what Germans call an “Arbeitssieg”.
A strenuous, less-than-pretty day at the office that ultimately still gets the three points.
Looking around the league, there is simply no room for complacency against any team this early in a season. Bundesliga first-timers Elversberg (shoutout Ole Book) have put everyone on notice by flat-out winning their first two games! And our favourite blue neighbors are the reason Bayern have already dropped points.
BVB under Kovac have certainly been a results machine, but not exactly a goal-scoring machine. Which, a lot of the time, leaves the door open for teams like Paderborn, who want to prove that they belong in the first tier and have little to lose.
While the possibility of a slip-up is always real with Dortmund, there isn’t necessarily a reason to bet on it… right? Of the last ten Bundesliga campaigns, Dortmund have won 26 out of 40 games against newly promoted sides (including six draws and eight losses). That’s 84 points from a possible 120. Paderborn defend with structure and discipline, but will they have an answer for the inevitable force that is Silvassy? Or GuiraSilva? Have we decided on a name yet?
Player to Watch: Marvin Pieringer
Not only a marquee signing for coach Ralf Kettemann this summer, but also the club’s record transfer (€ 3.5M). Leapfrogging former Bayern talent Gabriel Vidovic, who arrived just days before for about three million euros from Zagreb. The 26-year-old poacher returns to a fairly young SCP (average age: 24.6) with three years of valuable Bundesliga experience from his time at Heidenheim. Pieringer has scored in Dortmund before. By the way, Steffen “Tigginator” Tigges is on this team.
Predicted Lineup:
First piece of positive injury-related news this season: Schlotti and Ramy are back! With them, Daniel Svensson can finally set his center-back boots aside for now. For many, Schlotti wasn’t expected to be available until after the international break, so the prospect of him already starting this week is definitely a surprise. Veerman was absolutely world-class on Tuesday, and I struggle to imagine him on the bench in a game where we should dominate possession.
Kovac is facing a delicate decision regarding Fabio Silva’s role, similar to the one that Nagelsmann had with Deniz Undav this summer. Obviously, Silva has earned a start by this point. When he has come on, the entire dynamic of the game shifts. But maybe for that exact reason, Kovac will want to save that firepower for later in the game. I think it’s only a matter of time until we see Silva and Guirassy start together.
With Karetsas out and Inacio suspended, the attacking options are limited. Could this be a Mathis Albert game?
Your Thoughts
We need to take control of these types of games earlier. I’d hope for shades of the first 45 min. on MD1 versus Hamburg. 3-0 is my prediction.
