Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is just one day away from the upcoming UFC Vegas 115 mixed martial arts (MMA) event, which is set to go down tomorrow night (Sat., April 4, 2026) on Paramount+ from inside Meta Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. UFC Vegas 115 features a lightweight main event between 155-pound standouts Renato Moicano and Chris Duncan, a five-round showdown that could shake up the division Top 15.
Before we dive into the main and co-main event, which includes the 115-pound collision between
Top 10 strawweight contenders Virna Jandiroba and Tabatha Ricci, check out Andrew Richardson’s “X-Factor” breakdown for the rest of the UFC Vegas 115 main card by clicking here. Get all the latest “Moicano vs. Duncan” odds and betting props courtesy of FanDuel right here.
155 lbs.: Renato Carneiro vs. Chris Duncan
Renato “Moicano” Carneiro
Record: 20-7-1 | Age: 36 | Betting line: +145
Wins: 2 KO/TKO, 10 SUB, 8 DEC | Losses: 3 KO/TKO, 2 SUB, 2 DEC
Height: 5’11” | Reach: 72” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.17 | Striking accuracy: 48%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.57 | Striking Defense: 59%
Takedown Average: 1.67 (41% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 62%
Current Ranking: No. 10 | Last fight: Unanimous decision loss to Beneil Dariush
Chris “The Problem” Duncan
Record: 15-2 | Age: 32 | Betting line: -175
Wins: 7 KO/TKO, 4 SUB, 4 DEC | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 0 DEC
Height: 5’10“ | Reach: 71” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 5.02 | Striking accuracy: 46%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 4.82 | Striking Defense: 51%
Takedown Average: 3.27 (42% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 50%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Submission win over Terrance McKinney
Renato Carneiro has been with the promotion for nearly 12 years, starting out as a featherweight before eventually moving up to lightweight. In 28 professional fights, “Moicano” has only scored two wins by knockout and one of those came by way of doctor’s stoppage. What he lacks in knockout power he more than makes up for in grappling technique, hitting double-digit submission wins by choking out Brad Riddell at UFC 281. Carneiro was able to challenge for the 155-pound strap when Arman Tsarukayn fumbled the bag at UFC 311, but Islam Makhachev made the Brazilian look like some bum they pulled out of the stands. To be fair, Makhachev does that to just about everyone, though I was not as forgiving about Carneiro’s follow-up loss to Beneil Dariush at UFC 317, especially when you consider how bad Dariush has looked over the last few years. Sherdog’s Ben Duffy previously referred to “Moicano” as a poor man’s Charles Oliveira and it’s apt comparison, as Carneiro is built like “Do Bronxs” and also fights like him, to inferior results.
“Last year was not that good for me,” Carneiro said during the UFC Vegas 115 media day. “In 2025, I lost two fights in a row and then I was scheduled to fight [Brian Ortega], a fighter that I lost against. Since last year I’ve been focused on fighting. So I kind of took a little bit of time off from social media, so that was beneficial for my training camp. $100,000 is going to be beneficial, it’s going to be good, but at the same time, I feel like I have to win. I’m not thinking too much about the bonus. I’m thinking about the win … It’s never good to lose. It’s f–king terrible. But it’s so good when you win, I want to get that feeling of winning again, especially in the main event. One-hundred percent that adds pressure.”
Chris Duncan is a former Bellator MMA fighter who failed in his first attempt on Dana White’s “Contender Series” back in late 2021. He was called back the following year and stopped Charlie Campbell by way of first-round knockout to earn his spot on the 155-pound roster. The results have been nothing short of stellar, as Duncan has won six of seven and put together a four-fight winning streak heading into his first main event. That’s important to note because “The Problem” has never been asked to go five rounds in his UFC career (Carneiro went 25 minutes against Rafael dos Anjos at UFC 272). The 32 year-old Scot is a savvy submission specialist who can also hit for power, making him a threat wherever the fight goes. He’s also a tireless offensive wrestler who averages more than three takedowns per fight. I’m not sure the Brazilian’s guard is a place Duncan wants to spend any significant time in during the fight, but it’s a nice way to disrupt rhythm, rack up points, and keep Carneiro from committing to his strikes — or takedowns of his own.
“I feel like I get to express myself a little bit better with the five rounds,” Duncan told reporters during the UFC Vegas 115 media day. “He’s obviously a fantastic opponent. Unfortunately, he’s a teammate, but I’m absolutely ecstatic to be stepping across the octagon in front of him. What an opponent. The actual caliber of opponents he’s had in the past. Jose Aldo. Islam Makhachev. The resume is insane. He was there (at ATT). He was in the same gym and we were in the sauna together. A lot of people don’t get what I’m doing and what me and Moicano do. We have so much respect for each other that it’s going to be fighting and it’s going to be an equalizer on Saturday night. Whoever wins, wins. People can’t fathom that, and that’s why people like to watch, because people are not bred like me. I’m on a different level.”
This feels like a case of a fighter on the way down (Carneiro) meeting a fighter on the way up (Duncan). “Moicano” turns 37 in just a few weeks and may be answering for all the wars he’s had over the years. He remains dangerous in every capacity and this won’t be an easy out for Duncan, but I do expect him to shake off a close call early in the fight, turn the lightweight tide, and take over late in the contest.
Prediction: Duncan def. Carneiro by technical knockout
115 lbs.: Virna Jandiroba vs. Tabatha Ricci
Virna “Carcara” Jandiroba
Record: 22-4 | Age: 37 | Betting line: -130
Wins: 1 KO/TKO, 14 SUB, 7 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 4 DEC
Height: 5’3“ | Reach: 64” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 2.33 | Striking accuracy: 41%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 2.90 | Striking Defense: 55%
Takedown Average: 2.85 (37% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 74%
Current Ranking: No. 3 | Last fight: Unanimous decision loss to Mackenzie Dern
Tabatha “Baby Shark” Ricci
Record: 12-3 | Age: 31 | Betting line: +110
Wins: 2 KO/TKO, 3 SUB, 7 DEC | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 2 DEC
Height: 5’1“ | Reach: 61” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.18 | Striking accuracy: 36%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 5.19 | Striking Defense: 57%
Takedown Average: 2.69 (37% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 78%
Current Ranking: No. 7 | Last fight: Technical knockout win over Amanda Ribas
I picked Virna Jandiroba to defeat Mackenzie Dern at UFC 321 but she came up short on the judges’ scorecards. I still think she’s one of the best strawweights in the division, accurately reflected by her ranking, and she’ll soon celebrate her seven-year anniversary in UFC. There’s not a lot to deconstruct here, as Jandiroba has 14 submissions in 22 wins and averages nearly three takedowns per fight. She also lands a paltry 2.14 significant strikes per minute — one of the lowest percentages for any fighter, male or female. At the same time, she’s never been finished in her career, holds two “Performance of the Night” bonuses, and remains one of the toughest outs at strawweight. The only downside is that “Carcara” turns 38 in just a few weeks and may soon be on the downside of her UFC career, if she isn’s already.
“Tabatha is very good in MMA as a whole,” Jandiroba told reporters during the UFC Vegas 115 media day. “She’s very good at combining the different aspects of MMA, but I’m more than ready for it. I know in some specifics I’m probably going to have an advantage over her, but her overall game is very fluid. She’s good at the whole thing. I think that she’s at a different point in her career than mine. She’s coming off a win, so maybe she has a little more confidence, which can be useful for me, but we’ll see when the fight comes. I’m ready to fight for the belt whenever, but that doesn’t depend on me. To be conservative, and it all depends on my performances, that’s very important, but I’d say two wins, and I could be fighting for the belt again. To be conservative, two or three more wins.”
Tabatha Ricci is similar to her opponent in her offensive attack, utilizing her wrestling and outworking her opponents. Unlike Jandiroba, the younger Ricci does not have a great finishing rate, splitting her stoppages between two knockouts and three submissions in 12 wins. Ricci’s size is also a concern in this fight, clocking in two inches shorter in height and three inches less in reach. Not that I expect a boxing match between these two ground specialists but in a closely-matched contest, every advantage counts. Working in her favor is “Baby Shark’s” explosiveness and athleticism, which will both be tested against the pressure of Jandiroba. I don’t want to oversell her finish against Amanda Ribas (because Ribas stinks) but it demonstrated her ability to handle bigger, longer fighters. Ricci also has good takedown defense, so this battle of attrition could boil down to which fighter wants it more, especially this close to the 115-pound title.
“I think it’s a huge opportunity,” Ricci told UFC.com. “I think it’s the right time, she just fought for the belt, so that puts me right in the spot to where maybe I’ll be next, maybe we’ll see what’s going on. It’s a huge opportunity for me, and it’s the right time, so I’m ready for this. When they match up two grapplers, usually the fight stays on the feet, but I don’t know what Jandiroba has been training since her last fight because she was also fighting a grappler then, so she might have made some improvements watching the fight. I think the fight will be everywhere, stand-up, cage, ground; I think we’ll be showing a little bit of everything, and hopefully I can (finish) the fight. (After that), of course, I would love my chance for a title shot. I think this will put me in the perfect position, but we have to see what Weili (Zhang) is gonna decide, and whatever she decides, I’ll be next in line.”
Ricci is in a position where she will spend most of the fight on defense because she doesn’t have the power or the submissions to keep Jandiroba from barreling in, guns blazing. I think she’s got the skills to survive but I don’t know if she has much else against an opponent who stylistically, is a terrible matchup.
Prediction: Jandiroba def. Ricci by decision
Don’t forget to check out the rest of the UFC Vegas 115 main card predictions RIGHT HERE.
