The Royals have made the playoffs once in the last decade, and their disappointing seasons in 2025 and 2026 have raised questions about whether the front office can build a contender. One way to get a better sense of how the Royals are doing is to compare their decisions with those of another franchise. In my recent evaluationof Royals president of baseball operations J.J. Picollo, I tried to assess how well he had done at acquiring talent. This piece takes the same approach with Milwaukee Brewers
president of baseball operations Matt Arnold, giving us a point of comparison with a franchise that has been more successful over the past four seasons.
The goal of my exercise was to attempt to determine which of resources or talent evaluation were the primary culprit behind the Royals’ back-to-back disappointing seasons after the surprise playoff run in 2024. I cannot realistically evaluate how big the hits or misses are without knowing what the alternatives might have been. I can’t know what the alternatives were without knowing intimate details about the Royals’ free-agent and trade negotiations to which I am not privy. It’s obvious on its face that Picollo has not done a good enough job at building a contending roster, so I am merely attempting to determine the primary limiting factor as best I can with publicly available knowledge. To that end, wins represent appropriate or surplus value for the acquisition cost, not necessarily a good add to the roster.
When we compare Picollo and Arnold, I think we need to acknowledge the reality that the Brewers have been more successful over the past four seasons than the Royals. So the expectation should likely be that Arnold is going to have a higher “win percentage” than Picollo. If that’s the case, it doesn’t mean Picollo should automatically be fired. We want to see the degree to which Picollo is being beaten to get an idea of whether this is something he is at least close on. Arnold has won Executive of the Year two years in a row, so he is considered one of the best in baseball. If Picollo is even close to the best, he’s worth keeping around for a bit. If he’s wildly worse, then I might be forced to run this exercise again with a different franchise to see how he compares to someone who is not the best because we’d have to allow for the possibility that Matt Arnold leads the best front office in baseball and it isn’t close.*
Anyway, with that all out of the way, let’s get into the scoring. In an attempt to preserve my sanity and time, I’m going to try to do less writing about individual transactions since most of you probably don’t care about these players anyway. In fact, feel free to skip to the end to read my conclusions; I won’t be offended. The only reason I’m even writing them down is as a sort of bibliography for that conclusion.
2023
Signed Blake Perkins
They paid him the minimum to be a replacement-level player.
0-0-1
Signed Wade Miley
$4.5 million for 1.0 fWAR.
1-0-1
Signed Brian Anderson
$3.5 million for 0.4 fWAR.
2-0-1
Signed Justin Wilson
Never pitched for the Brewers.
2-1-1
Signed Darin Ruf
Below replacement level.
2-1-2
Signed Julio Teheran
$1.5 million for 0.3 fWAR.
3-1-2
Signed Raimel Tapia
Below replacement level.
3-2-2
Signed Jahmai Jones
They paid him the minimum to be a replacement-level player.
3-2-3
Traded Reminton Batista for Payton Henry
Neither has appeared in the big leagues again.
3-2-4
Traded Hunter Renfroe for Elvis Peguero, Janson Junk, and Adam Seminaris
Renfroe was still useful in 2023, but Peguero was a useful piece, too.
4-2-4
Traded Kolten Wong for Abraham Toro and Jesse Winker
Wong and Winker were both awful.
4-2-5
Traded Esteury Ruiz for William Contreras, Joel Payamps, and Justin Yeager (three-team trade)
William Contreras is a perennial All-Star; Payamps was good for a bit.
5-2-5
Traded Justin Topa for Joseph Hernandez
Topa was good; Hernandez never made it.
5-3-5
Traded Taylor Floyd and cash for Trevor Megill
Megill has been a terrific closer for a couple of years, though he wasn’t this good straight out of the gate.
6-3-5
Traded Jhonny Severino for Carlos Santana
Santana was helpful
7-3-5
Traded Justin Jarvis for Mark Canha and cash
Canha was great; Jarvis never made it.
8-3-5
Traded Luis Urias for Bradley Blalock
Nothingburger.
8-3-6
Traded Alex Jackson for Evan McKendry
Ditto.
8-3-7
Traded Peter Strzelecki for Andrew Chafin
One more time.
2023 Total: 8-3-8
2024
Signed Joe Ross
$1.75 million for 0.9 fWAR.
1-0-0
Signed Wade Miley
Turns out J.J. isn’t the only one who hangs on to guys too long, sometimes. Only threw seven innings this year.
1-1-0
Signed Eric Haase
$1 million for 0.2 fWAR/
2-1-0
Signed Rhys Hoskins
$34 million for two years totaling 1.1 fWAR.
2-2-0
Signed Jakob Junis
$7 million for replacement-level play.
2-3-0
Signed Gary Sánchez
$3 million for 0.4 fWAR/
3-3-0
Signed Brandon Woodruff
$17.5 million for 1.7 fWAR.
3-4-0
Signed Elieser Hernández
League minimum for replacement level.
3-4-1
Extended Jackson Chourio
Already paying dividends.
4-4-1
Traded Mark Canha for Blake Holub
Canha wasn’t bad in 2024. Holub has yet to make his big-league debut. He showed off some nice strikeout numbers in AAA, but he’s 27. So we’ll call it a draw for now.
4-4-2
Traded Hendry Mendez and Robert Moore for Oliver Dunn
Both the prospects traded look like they could be something, Mendez in particular looks like a potential stud (now with the Twins). Dunn was basically replacement level.
4-5-2
Traded Abraham Toro for Chad Patrick
Vice versa from above.
5-5-2
Traded Brian Sanchez and Jace Avina for Jake Bauers
Jake Bauers has become a mainstay in the Brewers lineup
6-5-2
Traded Cam Devanney and Ryan Brady for Taylor Clarke
We covered this one on the Royals’ side.
6-5-3
Traded Tyrone Taylor and Adrian Houser for Coleman Crow
Crow has been disappointing while Taylor and Houser have each had their moments.
6-6-3
Traded Justin Chambers for Bryan Hudson
Nothing for nothing.
6-6-4
Traded Corbin Burnes for DL Hall and Joey Ortiz
Joey saves this one for the Brewers because Hall has not been helpful.
7-6-4
Traded Clayton Andrews for Joshua Quezada
Quezada is speedrunning the Brewers’ system; he pitched at every level of full-season minor leagues this year at 22. I’m not sure I see it, but they sure do. Still, to stick with the conservative approach of Picollo’s review, it’s a draw.
7-6-5
Traded Thyago Vieira and Aneuris Rodriguez for Garret Stallings
Stalling debuted this year and looked pretty good.
8-6-5
Traded Gregory Barrios for Aaron Civale
Civale was good, not great; Barrios is well-regarded as a prospect but isn’t putting up numbers. No winners here.
8-6-6
Traded TJ Shook for Tyler Jay
Nothing for nothing.
8-6-7
Traded Yujanyer Herrera and Bradley Blalock for Nick Mears
Ditto
8-6-8
Traded Jakob Junis and Joey Wiemer for Frankie Montas
Wiemer has been mostly worthless as an MLB player, but Junis was fire for the Reds after the trade, and Montas wasn’t great. Without knowing more about the Brewers, it’s hard to call this a loss – maybe the mediocre starter’s innings were more valuable to them than the relief innings they gave up. So I’ll call it nothing.
2024 total: 8-6-9
Two-year total: 16-9-16
2025
Signed Grant Wolfram
Never pitched in the big leagues for the Brewers.
0-1-0
Signed Elvin Rodríguez
Below replacement level.
0-2-0
Signed Tyler Alexander
$1 million for 0.4 fWAR but DFA’d in early June because he had a 6.19 ERA.
0-2-1
Signed Jose Quintana
$4 million for 0.8 fWAR in 24 starts.
1-2-1
Signed Erik Fedde
Below replacement level.
1-3-1
Traded Devin Williams for Nestor Cortes and Caleb Durbin
Caleb Durbin saves this trade.
2-3-1
Traded Mason Molina for Grant Anderson
I want to call this a loss because Molina looks far more interesting as a prospect than Anderson has been as a reliever, but Molina hasn’t been quite good enough for me to pull the trigger.
2-3-2
Traded Mark Canha for Cesar Espinal
Canha was bad; Espinal is not good.
2-3-3
Traded Grant Wolfram for Daz Cameron and cash
Bad for bad.
2-3-4
Traded Yophery Rodríguez, Competitive Balance pick A, and John Holobetz for Quinn Priester
Priester was good, but not great, and underwent thoracic outlet surgery this year. Holobetz and the CB-A Pick (Marcus Phillips) look pretty good in the minors.
2-3-5
Traded Aaron Civale for Andrew Vaughn
This was when I was convinced that the White Sox were actively making everyone on their team worse and wanted the Royals to go after Luis Robert Jr.
3-3-5
Traded Jorge Quintana and Nestor Cortes for Brandon Lockridge
Nothing for nothing.
3-3-6
Traded PTBNL for Jordan Montgomery and Shelby Miller
Nothing for nothing, but an interesting example of the Brewers being willing to take on money to pay less in prospect capital. They actually wanted Miller, but took Montgomery’s salary so they didn’t have to give up much. It’s hard to tell if they ever did this again in the four-year stretch we’re evaluating, but even doing it once is more than the Royals have been willing to try.
2025 total: 3-3-7
Three-year total: 19-12-23
2026
Signed Brandon Woodruff
$22.5 million for 1.2 fWAR, a second whiff on the same player.
0-1-0
Signed Akil Baddoo
Never even appeared for the big league team.
0-2-0
Signed Gary Sánchez
$1.75 million for 0.9 fWAR; Gary is another win.
1-2-0
Signed Luis Rengifo
He was so very bad.
1-3-0
Signed Bryse Wilson
It worked again.
2-3-0
Extended Cooper Pratt
Fantastic in limited playing time so far.
3-3-0
Extended Luis Lara
Lara has not been good yet, but the extension can’t be a loss this early.
3-3-1
Traded Isaac Collins and Nick Mears for Angel Zerpa
We covered this from the Royals’ side.
3-3-2
Traded Freddy Peralta and Tobias Myers for Brandon Sproat and Jett Williams
You’d rather have Peralta than Sproat, and while Myers wasn’t much, Williams has regressed a bit in AAA this season.
3-3-3
Traded Caleb Durbin, Competitive Balance Pick B, Andruw Monasterio, and Anthony Siegler for Kyle Harrison and David Hamilton
This looked like a hilarious win to start the season, but Durbin actually had a really good year by the end and Harrison fell off. Owen Hull, the CB-B pick, tore up High-A, too. I think we have to consider this a loss.
3-4-3
Traded K.C. Hunt for Jake Woodford
Nothing for nothing
3-4-4
Traded Jadyn Fielder for Lance McCullers Jr., Colton Gordon, and cash
Fielder’s got a little juice, but still very low. This is a tie leaning toward a loss. This would probably be at least a second example of taking on money to give up less; they cut McCullers less than two weeks after they acquired him. We don’t know how much cash they got in the deal to offset his salary, though.
3-4-5
Traded Craig Yoho and Blake Perkins for Codi Heuer and Bo Naylor
Nothing for nothing.
3-4-6
Traded Josiah Ragsdale and Alexander Frias for JoJo Romero and Dustin May
Frias is a 50 FV, and Ragsdale is tearing up the minors. Romero is a competent lefty reliever, and May has been a disappointment.
3-5-6
Traded Juan Martinez and Mark Manfredi for Antonio Senzatela
Manfredi has looked good in relief; Senzatela has not. Martinez showed a little juice in the minors, not enough to sway this, but it was already a loss.
2026 total: 3-6-6
Four-year total: 22-18-29
Conclusion
The most obvious thing is that the Brewers make more transactions than the Royals. And that’s before I realized, as I was going through this, that I had disregarded cash trades, viewing them the same as minor league free agent signings. Let’s at least summarize the cash trades here.
The Royals made 12 trades that included only cash from one side or another in the past four years. The Royals had two trades of that nature that worked out well (Yuli Gurriel and Randy Dobnak) and one that went poorly (Ryan O’Hearn, though the rumor is that there were extenuating circumstances to that one).
The Brewers made 19. They had a pair of small hits (Owen Miller, Bryse Wilson) and traded away no one they’ve ended up missing. You could argue the Royals could make more of these kinds of trades, but they’ve also got as many hits as the Brewers in fewer attempts, so maybe they’re just not wasting as much time on them.
The next most obvious conclusion is that, while the Brewers made significantly more transactions, they’ve “won” on the exact same number as the Royals, lost a handful more, and mostly ended up with extra nothing for nothings.
I went into this assuming that Arnold was going to have significantly more wins on his record over the past four years than Picollo. That fear escalated as I saw them acquire players like Durbin, Contreras, Megill, and Bauers in trades. That said, Picollo had the higher success rate. I suppose it’s possible that Arnold’s team is hitting home runs while the Royals are settling for singles from the front office, but again, some of that goes back to the resources available to them. The Brewers may not have had more money, but they had a lot more talent in their organization after the 2022 season than the Royals. That’s something that could start changing as early as this offseason, as guys like Blake Mitchell fall down the org prospect rankings despite not performing poorly.
And it’s not like the Royals don’t have big wins in the trade department, either. Aroldis Chapman for Cole Ragans was massive, even more so if Ragans can have additional healthy seasons. Freddy Fermin for Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek was even better. If Steven Cruz can take one more step forward, his trade will look as good as the Megill deal – it even took Megill time to reach this level of success. The Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha signings are better than any free agent deal the Brewers have done.
I also found it interesting that while Picollo often held on to guys too long, Arnold often brings guys back to see them underperform in a second tour. Woodruff stands out as a guy who was bad the first time and came back to be worse for more money the second time. Wade Miley was bad in his second tour. Sometimes it’s worked out for them, as with Bryse Wilson and Gary Sánchez. Still, the Royals and Brewers don’t appear to be as different in this regard as you might have imagined. I’m inferring from anecdotes and small samples here, but it seems like all front offices have guys they like and will keep or bring back even if their play hasn’t necessarily justified it. Austin Hedges in Cleveland stands out in this regard, as well.
The Royals’ assertion that they want major-league-ready guys in trades actually fits in with the Brewers’ behavior. Of the four stars the Brewers acquired via trade, three of them had already played in the big leagues before the Brewers got them; Durbin was the lone exception, and he came with Nestor Cortes Jr., who was supposed to improve the Brewers’ rotation. In fact, Durbin and Jett Williams are the only prospects acquired by the Brewers in large-ish trades, and both came with established starting pitchers even if those pitchers didn’t work out. Prospects will break your heart, but they’re worth grabbing if they can give you a second shot on a risky starting pitcher trade, I guess.
That said, one big change the Royals should consider adapting from the Brewers is a willingness to sign the young prospects who look like stars early on. Chourio and Pratt look to be huge wins for the Brewers. Even if Lara ends up being a miss, the value gained from Chourio and Pratt will outweigh what is lost with him. The Royals should absolutely be locking Carter Jensen and Jac Caglianone in ASAP if they want to keep their payroll down and keep options open for filling holes later.
*I wrote that entire paragraph before beginning the evaluation. I was convinced that Arnold and the Brewers were going to do better than the Royals; I just wanted to see how much better. Imagine my shock and delight when I had finished and reached the conclusions above.
