The Diamondbacks are coming off a disappointing series where they dropped two out of three to the Red Sox, but did get a solid, extra innings win in the finale. Absolutely nothing else of any importance happened.
The Reds have faded from the conversation. After being semi-close by for a while, they have fallen to last place in the NL Central 18 games behind the Brewers, and seven games behind the Padres for the NL Wild Card. They’re 4-6 in their last ten and just kind of coasting.
Game 1 — 8/21, 6:40 PM: Eduardo Rodriguez (4.4 bWAR, 12-4, 2.71 ERA/155 ERA+, 1.21 WHIP) vs. Nick Lodolo (1.3 bWAR, 3-2, 4.52 ERA/95 ERA+, 1.42 WHIP)
After a (potentially
very significant) hiccup against the Padres, normal service has resumed for Eduardo Rodriguez. He threw seven innings of two run ball against the Dodgers, recording a season high nine strikeouts, and then another six inning, two run performance against the Braves. He’s done well in a lot of statistics, but I think one that says a lot is the team’s 19-6 record in games that he starts. At the end of the day, winning baseball games is the goal, and Rodriguez has given the team a chance to do that in basically every start he’s had this season.
Lodolo missed a month due to a blister, and he has made two starts since coming back. His first start was rough, giving up four runs in four innings, but his second start was a good bounce back, holding the Marlins scoreless for five innings in his most recent start. This will be his second time facing the Diamondbacks this season, after he pitched 5.1 innings against them on June 12th, holding them two two runs on five hits and one walk.
Game 2 — 8/22, 5:10 PM: Michael Soroka (2.5 bWAR, 8-3, 2.93 ERA/143 ERA+, 1.10 WHIP) vs. TBD
There is always the concern that an extended lay off due to injury can cause rust to build up on a pitcher, but the 51 days between starts doesn’t seem to have been much of a hinderance for Soroka. That first start back was a little short, only 4.1 innings, but he held the Rockies scoreless and struck out four. The three walks weren’t great, but he worked around them. Next time out, he faced a much tougher level of opponent and held the Braves to just two runs in 5.2 innings. It wasn’t enough, but he did keep the team in the game. The bullpen just let it get away from them.
Game 3 — 8/23, 1:15 PM: Mitch Bratt (0.3 bWAR, 1-2, 4.17 ERA/101 ERA+, 1.47 WHIP) vs. Andrew Abbott (2.3 bWAR, 6-8, 4.07 ERA/105 ERA+, 1.40 WHIP)
Bratt is being basically the perfect definition of a #5 starter. He’s not going to be an all-star, and he’s going to have bad starts. His last time out against the Red Sox was one of those. He was only able to manage three innings and gave up three runs in them. He also gave up three walks, something he has struggled with. In his last five starts he has given up a whopping sixteen. If there is one thing he needs to reel in, it’s that. Other than that, if he can just keep up what he’s doing overall, he’s going to be just fine.
Abbott has been pretty consistent since the start of July. You’re going to get five or so innings out of him. He’s going to give up three runs, a handful of walks, and 4-6 strikeouts. That sums up approximately 75% of his games over the last month and a half. If it’s not that, it tends to err on the side of a worse performance, but there were a couple better ones. That said, I’d expect to see something pretty close to that hypothetical line I drew up.
Conclusion
I won’t insult your intelligence by saying this is a must win series. They all are from here on out until the magic or tragic number says 0. On paper the Diamondbacks should have a pretty good shot. The pitching matchups are strongly in their favor, especially. But the off-field clouds hang low, and it remains to be seen if Lovullo will be able to keep them at bay and keep the team on the field focused. I don’t envy him at all on this one, but if he can pull it off, I don’t think anyone will argue he deserves at least another season on the top step of the dug out.
