That was… I mean… well… what can I say about that? I had zero expectations about a win, but I hoped it would be somewhat competitive. It was not. That just plain sucked. That is all. Thank you for reading.
Oh, you’re still here? In that case, I’ll hit on a few things I noticed from a quick watch of the game. As usge, I will preface by saying the best way to dissect the game if through All-22 film, which I will not get to watch today.
Setting the table
This loss sucked, but let’s look at it with some aqua-colored glasses
for a moment. The 49ers are a Super Bowl contender. The Dolphins are not. There was plenty of discussion this week about the total number of Pro Bowls on the San Francisco 49ers roster versus the Miami Dolphins roster. There was the payroll discrepancy discussion. The broadcast highlighted how the 49ers were the oldest team in the league facing the youngest team in the league. The week prior, the 49ers went across the world to face the Los Angeles Super Rams and left with a 27-7 win. Reigning MVP Matthew Stafford went 15-of-25, 155 yards, no touchdowns, one interception, a passer rating of 61.2, and a QBR of 37.5. He had current 1st-team All-Pro Puka Nacua and three-time 1st-team All-Pro Davante Adams. They were limited to 290 yards of offense, 2-9 on 3rd down, and ran 57 total plays. The Super Rams defense allowed 379 total yards, 27 points, and generated 3 pressures with no sacks despite having the reigning DPOY and single-season sack leader Myles Garrett on their team. The Super Rams were considered THE top contender for the Super Bowl championship this season, and they were shut down by the 49ers.
Enter the rebuilding Dolphins. They have a QB with limited NFL snaps, 3 rookie WRs, a ton of rookies on the defensive side of the ball, and are considered THE top contender for the 1st overall draft pick. Remember back in the day when kids would make those paper shuriken? The Dolphins brought THAT to a nuclear war. Calling this an unfair fight is an understatement. Still, the Dolphins produced 284 yards of offense, were 7-15 on 3rd downs, and Willis had an arguably better stat line than Stafford against this same team in THEIR building.
My point is that fans should not view this through the lens of how far away the Dolphins are from contention. We know that – and more on that later. The point is that the 49ers did the same thing to a far superior opponent the week before, and they’ll likely do it to others most weeks.
The offense can move the ball
One of the few positives from this game is that the Dolphins offense showed they can move the ball. At least in the first half. The Dolphins controlled the clock and generated 155 of their 284 yards in 3 drives. I don’t think it would have changed the outcome, but how different would it have felt if they could have scored a TD or two on those drives? Imagine if they entered halftime 17-14, 14-13, or 14-10 instead of 14-6. I don’t think the defense was stopping the 49ers at all, but let’s say the score after the 49ers’ opening 2nd-half drive is 21-14. Wouldn’t that change how the offense plays? Instead of being down 21-6 and having to force things, they could run a more balanced offense and grind down the clock. Maybe the score still ends up wild, but we would feel a little better knowing they performed well against a top tier opponent.
The non-existent pass rush
The elephant in the stadium for this Dolphins team isn’t the secondary or Malik Willis. It’s the pass rush that does not exist. Pro Football Focus did not have the advanced stats at the time of writing, but they now show Miami had two QB hits. That’s it. Purdy had all day to throw, and it showed. He had only two incompletions that day. The San Francisco OL is pretty good, and they limited the LA Super Rams to 3 pressures, so let’s not forget that part. But the Dolphins did not generate much pass rush against the Raiders last week. PFF has a preseason ranking of offensive lines, and Miami only plays 1 team listed outside their top 20 – Green Bay at 27th. They face 8 of the top 11 ranked OLs, including the two games against Buffalo (6th) and New England (11th). Based on a quick Google search, the lowest number of sacks ever recorded in a season was the 1956 Packers with 9. In recent history, the 2008 Chiefs only recorded 10 sacks. The 2026 Dolphins will be flirting with this record. I can’t see a game soon where the Dolphins have a good opportunity to get a sack. The Chiefs have a good OL and a QB that can avoid sacks well. The Vikings also have a good OL. This secondary needs all the help it can get and without any pressure up front, games are going to look more like this one.
This and that
- Caleb Douglas was quiet, then got injured. That’s bad news for a team that has nothing at pass catcher. Chris Bell is still working his way back, and he should become a bigger factor. But no one else can get open. Turns out having adequate offensive skill players IS important.
- Willie Gay Jr. had too many mistakes in this game, and his playing time should be reduced. In fairness, I would expect a rookie like Trey Moore to make mistakes. But WGJ is a veteran and at this point, should be depth and not a starter.
- Malik Willis is making some inexperienced mistakes that need to be cleaned up. He ran out of bounds behind the line of scrimmage not once, but twice. Those should be throwaways. Those lose yardage and count as sacks on the stat sheet. The box score says he sacked 4 times, but only 2 of those were actual defenders getting him to the ground. These moments are coaching moments, and I kinda understand what he may be thinking. He’s likely thinking “I can make it on the run”, but that window closes quick. He is also missing some throws he should not miss. But that may be because of…
- The offensive line sucks again. Namely, the right tackle position. Willis and the Dolphins cannot drop back into standard passing situations without getting pressure almost immediately. Jackson is healthy but has now become a liability. For what he gives you in the running game, you lose in pass protection. At some point, the Dolphins really need to consider moving Kadyn Proctor to RT and letting DJ Campbell start at LG. I know that goes against what they said earlier this offseason, but the status quo isn’t working. Caedan Wallace may be the next guy up, but he hasn’t shown enough to feel confident he’ll be an upgrade.
- The Dolphins may be patient with Jackson, but they may also trade him as soon as they feel it’s necessary. Jackson will not be back in 2027. The Dolphins recently amended his contract, which makes it easier to trade him this season. Now, they won’t get much for him. Maybe a later-round pick swap or perhaps a player-for-player swap. But in a season where the Dolphins will not be competitive, getting something for a player who will be leaving anyway would be a smart move for the GM to make.
I said what I said
Ok… here is the “more on that later” material. I could write a couple of articles about the draft, free agency, and stuff like positional value. I will wait until the appropriate time for that. But after two weeks, some areas of need for the 2027 offseason are obvious. The Dolphins will need a new right tackle. They will need 2 new edge rushers. There are a few more needs that may become apparent. That is wide receiver, cornerback, safety, guard, tight end, and sigh… quarterback.
Last week, I mentioned that Hafley could be on the hot seat quickly if the Dolphins go winless. In a glitch in the matrix, even ct1361 agrees with me. Sorta. I’m not saying he SHOULD be fired, but that is a problem for another day. Back during the draft season, I mentioned how a poorly ran draft could be an indicator of how long this rebuild process will go. I was very much against drafting OL in the 1st round because in general, one individual OL will not have the impact that a skill position player will. Caleb Douglas, if he continues to be a hit, will impact the win/loss total more than Kadyn Proctor will if he is a hit. Now, we can argue this until the cows come home and I really don’t want to rehash any of that now – that’s a draft time discussion.
The part of that discussion I want to focus on is the time frame. The Dolphins have 2 major issues entering the 2027 offseason, and possibly a 3rd issue.
The first is a principle issue. The Dolphins and Jon-Eric Sullivan have stated they want to build through the draft. That’s fine. But that will take a ton of time. Most draft classes have one or two hits at best. The Dolphins had a league high 13 draft picks in 2026. If half of them hit, that’s essentially a complete class. That’s wonderful. But no one bats 1.000 in this area and Sully will have his share of misses. He does not have 13 draft picks in 2027. Right now, Miami has 8 picks in 2027, with an extra 5th coming from Pittsburgh. Those will not be enough to put Miami into immediate contention.
In addition to Sully wanting to build through the draft, he also says he wants to use free agency in a very directed manner. He’s not going to spend willy-nilly. During the last rebuild, Chris Grier had no issues spending free agent money. After the 2019 “tank” season, he spent over $236M in contracts the following year. That didn’t go well, but then he had another spending spree in 2022 with a HC change and that one did work out with several players, such as Terron Armstead, Raheem Mostert, and Connor Williams. Green Bay on the other hand has used free agency sparingly with mixed results. They signed safety Xavier McKinney and RB Josh Jacobs to big deals in 2024 and those additions were successes. In 2025, they signed OG Aaron Banks and CB Nate Hobbs to big deals in 2025 and those additions were not so successful. Sully will have the cap space to operate and get free agents, but don’t expect a massive overhaul and all the big names; figure one or two guys at most. The rest will be cheap players who are chasing the carrot. This is how he will run things.
The issue with free agency in 2027 is where Miami’s areas of need intersect with available talent. Spotrac has a list of players expected to be available in the 2027 offseason. There aren’t any special talents available that fit the needs of younger players and game changing talent. I linked two groups: edge rusher and offensive tackle. There are two names of interest to me in the edge group: Kayvon Thibodeaux and Kingsley Enagbare. Both are young players that could help the Dolphins and Enagbare comes from the Packers pipeline. But aside from those two, there is nothing there that makes you want to get excited at either position group. I’m sure someone else will shake free, but those are usually older players that are making too much or whatever. That’s not what Miami is looking to do. They want building blocks. Do you see any in free agency?
That leads to the second issue which is draft need and the quarterback position. So far, Malik Willis hasn’t answered enough questions to prove he’s the one. There is still time for him this season, but it’s clear now that the Dolphins are not getting many, if any wins. Even if he does play great. If the Dolphins do make the choice to draft a quarterback with their 1st round pick, that sets into motion a draft scenario where now they are looking for skill talent or perhaps another OL starting in round 2. Miami’s round two pick will be high also, but Barry Jackson highlighted the concerns of this in a recent article. The Dolphins will have to hope that Sully has another run of good picks later, otherwise they have started spinning their wheels. In other words, if pick 1 is a QB, then the Dolphins will be relying on later picks to fill positions of need. That slows down the process unless Sully has atypical draft results.
The final issue goes back to the tweet from ct. What if the Dolphins go 0-17 and there is a coaching change? That compounds the other two issues because now there is more change to go along with a younger and incomplete roster. When the coaching change happened in 2022, Miami already had some pieces in place PLUS a roster that had been winning. The transition was a little easier. If Hafley becomes a one-and-done HC, then any potential positives that have been build this season could be swept away in the switch i.e. the players that Hafley likes may not be players the new HC likes. One of the comments from last week was disappointed by the HC talk, but I only bring it back up because, well… I’m not the only one thinking it.
I write all of this to say that extreme patience will be the biggest need for this fanbase. There are already people disgusted by the outcomes and wanna change this or that. That’s a little extreme at this stage, but it highlights an underlying viewpoint that I’m afraid will catch many fans off-guard in 2027. And that is there will not be a 5-12 to 10-6 turnaround like from 2019 to 2020. This is going to be 0-17/1-16/2-15 to 4-13/5-12/6-11 type of turnaround. Then MAYBE they get to 9-10 wins in 2028 and then be true contenders in 2029. I made that assertion in the offseason and I’m sticking to that. I haven’t seen anything from this team, particularly from this quarterback and HC combo that would make me feel any different. There is a LONG way to go. I said pre-draft that drafting a guard at 11 would slow the rebuild down and some said I couldn’t link causation of those two things. Perhaps not, but maybe it was a covert indication that Sully already knew this would take several years. Settle in folks… we’re going to be here for a while.
