12/13 – 12/17 games ATS: 2-1 (1-1 National, 1-0 B1G – 3 games pending)
Season ATS: 134-114 (66-57 National, 68-57 B1G)
Bowl season is underway and the games are about to start coming fast and furious. Much like Vin Diesel said, “I live my life a quarter of a bowl game at a time.”
Alright, that might have not been the exact
quote but it’s close enough for this time of year! With Christmas just a week away, my gift to you is a bunch of winners.
Next up are the first four playoff games, along with all the bowl games that will be played through Christmas Eve.
College Football Playoff first round picks
No. 9 Alabama (-1.5) v. No. 8 Oklahoma – Friday 12/19 8:00 p.m. ET – ABC/ESPN
Alabama had a stretch earlier in the season where they looked like they were a real threat to win the College Football Playoff. In a four-game span the Crimson Tide beat Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Tennessee.
Since then Kalen DeBoer’s team has failed to impress, limping into the playoff after losing at home to Oklahoma in mid-November and then getting demolished 28-7 by Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. The good news for Alabama is they should have Jam Miller back after the running back missed the loss to Georgia with an injury.
After playing four straight ranked teams at the end of the regular season before closing with a game against LSU, Oklahoma had to be thrilled to have some time off.
The Sooners will not only have an advantage since they didn’t have to play in the SEC Championship Game like Alabama did, quarterback John Mateer should look a lot better than the first time these two teams met. Mateer rushed back onto the field after injuring his hand earlier in the season and didn’t look right but the extra rest should have his as close to 100% as possible.
While Oklahoma’s previous history in the CFP is laughable, something feels off about Alabama. Ryan Williams has disappeared after a phenomenal freshman season, Ty Simpson has thrown four of his five interceptions on the season over the last four games, and who knows how much talk about Michigan being interested in DeBoer is weighing on the team, even though DeBoer has pledged his future to the Crimson Tide.
Oklahoma’s defense frustrates an Alabama offense that enters this game with confidence issues.
Oklahoma 24, Alabama 17
No. 10 Miami (FL) v. No. 7 Texas A&M (-3.5) – Saturday 12/20 12:00 p.m. ET – ESPN/ABC
I know who definitely won’t be watching this game. Notre Dame. The Hurricanes and Aggies each beat the Fighting Irish early in the season, so it’s fitting these two teams are squaring off while Notre Dame is sitting at home. With the tremendous athletes we’ll see on the field on each side of the football, this should be the most entertaining game of the first round.
Since beating Notre Dame to open up the season, what has Miami actually done? They did beat Florida and Florida State but those victories lost their luster as the season went on. Even though Carson Beck had a strong close to the season, tossing 10 touchdowns over the last three games, we can’t forget his performance against Louisville where he threw four interceptions. The defensive line of the Hurricanes is really good with Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain Jr., I’m just not sure if they have lived up to the preseason hype.
When it comes to the win over the Fighting Irish, we could ask the same question about Texas A&M as we did about Miami. What have the Aggies done since? Four wins for Texas A&M came over teams that fired their head coach during the season, and then to close the regular season the Aggies were handed their first loss of the season by rival Texas. Defensive lineman Cashius Howell has been a force in 2025, registering 11.5 sacks.
This game is so tough to call. Can we trust Mario Cristobal in a big game? How will the Aggies respond to losing their first game of the season? Which Carson Beck shows up in College Station? I actually think Cristobal and Beck keep their heads on straight for a game before they are rolled by Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl.
Miami’s defense has the athletes to contain quarterback Marcel Reed, putting even more pressure on a Texas A&M defense that drops off after Howell.
Miami (FL) 31, Texas A&M 23
No. 11 Tulane v. No. 6 Ole Miss (-17.5) – Saturday 12/20 3:30 p.m. ET – TNT/HBO Max/truTV
If we’re being honest, there is more intrigue with the head coaches in this game than what we’ll actually see on the field. Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall has accepted the Florida job and is currently balancing the responsibilities at both programs before heading to Gainesville once the Green Wave are bounced from the playoff.
On the other side, Lane Kiffin is officially the most hated man in Oxford after leaving Ole Miss for LSU, leaving defensive coordinator Pete Golding to coach the Rebels the rest of the way.
These two teams have already met this season, with Ole Miss embarrassing Tulane 45-10 in September. Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss was unstoppable in the game, throwing for 307 yards, while adding 112 yards on the ground. Running back Kewan Lacy has gotten stronger as the season has gone on, totaling at least 140 yards rushing in three of the last four games. Lacy has 20 rushing touchdowns on the season.
Tulane had some nice wins on the season, beating Northwestern and Duke in the non-conference portion of their schedule, and securing a spot in the CFP by beating North Texas 34-21 in their conference championship game. Jake Retzlaff is a solid quarterback, he just doesn’t have a ton of help on offense. Certainly not enough of a supporting cast to keep pace with Chambliss, Lacy, and the rest of the Rebels.
While some people are pointing to Tulane’s win over USC a few years ago in the Cotton Bowl as to why the Green Wave could shock Ole Miss in this game, that game wasn’t a playoff game and it was at a neutral site. Saturday’s game in Oxford will look a lot like the first meeting between these two schools.
Ole Miss 42, Tulane 17
No. 12 James Madison v. No. 5 Oregon (-21.5) – Saturday 12/20 7:30 p.m. ET – TNT/HBO Max/truTV
If we’re being honest, the only team I would want to see James Madison play in the College Football Playoff is Indiana only because Curt Cignetti coached the Dukes a couple years ago. James Madison only made the playoff because the ACC is a mess. Had Virginia beaten Duke, or if the conference had sent Miami to the conference title game then James Madison would have been on the outside looking in.
It’s not that James Madison doesn’t have some nice pieces. Quarterback Alonza Barrett III has totaled 68 touchdowns over the last two years, while Wayne Knight (Hello Newman!) ran for 1,263 yards this year. The problem is the Dukes haven’t played anyone close to the caliber of Oregon this season. The only Power 4 school James Madison faced was Louisville, losing to the Cardinals 28-14.
Last year Oregon entered the playoff as the top seed before matching up with Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. We all saw how that game went. Now the Ducks get a home game to open up their playoff run against the most unlikely playoff team we’ve ever seen.
Unless Curt Cignetti coaches the Dukes in this game (since he already coached Indiana to a win in Eugene this year) then this shouldn’t be much of a contest. The Ducks are too deep and too fast for James Madison. What’s scary is Oregon could be even scarier in this game since head coach Dan Lanning is optimistic wide receivers Dakorien Moore and Gary Bryant could return to the field after missing time late in the season.
The biggest question is will Oregon have this game in the bag before Packers/Bears kicks off on Saturday night. The good news for Bob Chesney is he’ll get some experience coaching against Dan Lanning before Chesney joins UCLA and the Big Ten after James Madison’s season is over.
If you remember when Oregon played Liberty in the Fiesta Bowl in 2023, this game will likely look similar to how that game played out.
Oregon 41, James Madison 10
Rapid Fire picks
Myrtle Beach Bowl: Kennesaw State v. Western Michigan (-3.5) – Friday 12/19 11:00 a.m. ET – ESPN
Kennesaw State 27, Western Michigan 24
Gasparilla Bowl: Memphis v. NC State (-4.5) – Friday 12/19 2:30 p.m. ET – ESPN
NC State 34, Memphis 23
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Washington State v. Utah State (-2.5) – Monday 12/22 2:00 p.m. ET – ESPN
Washington State 24, Utah State 20
Boca Raton Bowl: Toledo v. Louisville (-7.5) – Tuesday 12/23 2:00 p.m. ET – ESPN
Louisville 31, Toledo 17
New Orleans Bowl: Western Kentucky (-4.5) v. Southern Miss – Tuesday 12/23 5:30 p.m. ET – ESPN
Southern Miss 30, Western Kentucky 27
Frisco Bowl: UNLV (-4.5) v. Ohio – Tuesday 12/23 9:00 p.m. ET – ESPN
UNLV 38, Ohio 28
Hawai’i Bowl: Cal (-1.5) v. Hawai’i – Wednesday 12/24 8:00 p.m. ET – ESPN
Hawai’i 35, Cal 31
