Arsenal welcome rivals Chelsea to the Emirates for a high-stakes London derby as the second leg of the EFL Carabao Cup semifinals commences, with the hosts looking to finally secure a trip to Wembley after
falling short at this stage last season.
The Gunners enter Tuesday’s tilt with one foot in the final after winning the first leg 2-3 at Stamford Bridge two weeks ago. Mikel Arteta’s men were the better side on the night but failed to stick the dagger in late on, which would have rendered Tuesday’s match a formality.
Still, a one goal aggregate lead is nothing to scoff at, especially at home, and it’s certainly an improvement over last season’s semifinal goose egg the Gunners laid against Newcastle. Arsenal’s struggles getting through to cup finals in recent seasons has ramped up the pressure this season to break their slump, as hope continues to spring eternal in north London that this could finally be the year they get the project over the line.
At home with a one goal lead, it’s in Arsenal’s hands, but Chelsea will surely have their say if the Gunners let them. With 90 minutes to play against a highly motivated rival, can the Gunners maintain their rediscovered form and play it smart to punch their ticket to Wembley?
Here are three talking points ahead of Tuesday:
Know the Enemy
The Rosenior era is now almost one month in, and it’s still a bit too early to get a bead on the new Chelsea gaffer. On paper, it’s gone just about as well as could be expected. In seven matches under his care, the Blues have won six and are alive in all available comps. The lone blemish? The first leg of the Carabao Cup semifinal against Arsenal, where his side was bested 2-3 at home. Chelsea fans certainly won’t be upset about the state of their club since that match, having won 5 on the bounce since then.
And yet, that pesky little thing called context exists and paints their run in a slightly less favorable light. Chelsea have not exactly faced a murderer’s row of competitors during their recent stretch, and they have had issues putting matches to bed. Expected wins over Charlton Athletic, Pafos, and West Ham didn’t really move the needle, and they needed nervy late comebacks to secure wins in their last two wins over Napoli in the Champions League and West Ham on the weekend.
Sure, you can only play the matches in front of you, and Chelsea have taken care of business, which is all you can ask of your team. But the nature of some of their results papers over some troubling cracks and raise a few fair questions about the ceiling of their season with only 4 months left. The Blues are plenty talented and exceptionally young, but their massive squad leaves Rosenior with a juggling act as he continues to find out his best personnel.
In their eyes, Tuesday will be a chance to capitalize on their improved form and better understanding of how Rosenior wants them to play. Unlike the first match, they will come to the Emirates with a few key players in tow. Reece James, Cole Palmer, Malo Gusto, and Moises Caicedo all missed the first leg, and their returns for the second leg drastically change the dynamic and approach for the visitors. Whether it will be enough to overcome the deficit is a different story altogether.
If there is anything to be said in Chelsea’s defense (ugh), it’s that they cannot be counted out until the final whistle has blown. They are like a bad cold in that they just have a habit of sticking around as long as possible. In the first leg, they scored in the 82nd minute to close the gap to one goal. Their ability to find goals in the final 10-15 minutes means that the Gunners cannot afford to fall back into the recent frustrating habit of passivity late in matches. They avoided that against Leeds, but need to show more consistency after a slew of questionable performances at the back.
Injuries & Suspensions
I’ve joked before about the one-in, one-out nature of injuries, but it has appeared to be less of a joke and more of a policy once again. Mikel Merino was absent from the Leeds match due to a foot injury before David Ornstein reported that Merino had suffered a broken bone. The injury likely keeps the midfielder out for the majority of the rest of the season with surgery scheduled.
Bukayo Saka’s pre-match hip injury on Saturday is one that has not been elaborated on too much but instills a lot of worry. The video of the incident gives nothing away about the severity of it, but when a player feels something and immediately stops what they are doing, you suspect it’s not minor. Until an announcement is made, it’s safe to assume Saka is out for the immediate future.
OUT: Mikel Merino (foot)
DOUBTFUL: Bukayo Saka (hip)
Predicted Lineup
Attack: Trossard, Gyökeres, Martinelli
Don’t look now, but Viktor Gyökeres is on a bit of scoring tear. Arsenal’s summer signing at the striker spot has found the net 4 times in the last 6 matches, including one in the first leg of this tie. He has earned the start at home for this massive match. With Saka likely out and Noni Madueke looking a little ginger coming off on Saturday, I think Mikel rolls out with Leandro Trossard on the left and Gabriel Martinelli on the right. Both bring ability and experience scoring against Chelsea, and I imagine Martinelli will be tasked with a lot of defensive work to maintain Arsenal’s one goal lead.
Midfield: Rice, Zubimendi, Havertz
Arsenal’s midfield looked vastly improved on Saturday. Whether or not that had to do with the extra rest for starters against Kairat Almaty or the return of Kai Havertz is not wholly certain, but neither hurt. The nature of Tuesday’s match means the Gunners will face a ton of pressure early as Chelsea look to even up the aggregate score. Declan Rice and Martin Zubimendi dropping to a double pivot with Kai as a more central 10 would allow them to snuff out attacks in the middle while utilizing Kai’s progression to take advantage of transition moments. If not Kai, then one of Martin Ødegaard or Eberechi Eze are de facto starters as the CAM.
Defense: Calafiori, Gabriel, Saliba, Timber
Riccardo Calafiori is back. Two cameos should have gotten him the necessary match fitness minutes to start against Chelsea. Piero Hincapie likely gets the nod if Arteta chooses to go more conservative. If Calafiori can put in a shift for at least a half, that could be enough to widen the gap with his attacking contributions before shutting down shop. The rest of the defense are evergreen in big matches, and looked back to full strength after a resounding clean sheet on the road on the weekend.
Keeper: Kepa
Some may call for David Raya to start in such a big match (as I did in the first leg), but I think Kepa has shown that the gap between the two is not as massive as people might think. He got the start in the first leg, and I cannot see Arteta switching them up at this stage.
A lot of fans had written off the Carabao Cup as surplus to demands earlier in the season when injuries mounted and the fixture list got slammed, but a strong lineup and commanding performance in their win away in the first leg showed that Mikel and the players don’t see it that way in the slightest. Silverware has eluded this side for too long, and they are hungry to finally cash in on their near-misses the past few seasons. Winning begets winning, and securing a spot in a cup final will no doubt do wonders for their self belief ahead of the run in. They deserve it. The fans deserve it. It’s time to go out and show that they have earned it.
WHO: Arsenal vs Chelsea
WHAT: The EFL Carabao Cup semifinal second leg
WHEN: Tuesday, February 3, 3:00pm EST/12:00pm PST/8:00pm GMT
WHERE: The Emirates Stadium, London
HOW TO WATCH: Streaming on the Paramount+ app
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