It might seem cliche to say, but Saturday afternoon presents an important opportunity for both the Toledo Rockets and the Kentucky Wildcats.
The Rockets, favorites of the Mid-American Conference in the eyes of many, bring a lot of firepower to Lexington and the ability to keep stronger opponents close. Last year saw UT pull off a spanking of Mississippi State on the road, and Toledo has shown moxie against SEC teams in the past, including an upset of a ranked Arkansas squad back in 2015. A win in Lexington would
go a long way towards propelling the Rockets into the national spotlight as a potential non-Autonomous contender as a College Football Playoff contender.
Kentucky, meanwhile, is coming off a lackluster campaign which saw them finish 4-8. It was a less-than-ideal effort, as UK extended head coach Mark Stoops for eight seasons midway through 2022, assuming he would propel the Wildcats from a perennial postseason contender to a legitimate SEC threat. Instead, UK has cooled off rapidly after getting as high as #7 in the AP Poll in 2022, going 14-16 the last two years. A win here would help steady what has been a sinking ship and perhaps serve as a launch pad for bettering the team’s potential.
There’s a lot on the line at Kroger Field on Saturday afternoon; what can we expect to see?
Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, August 30th, 2025 at 12:45 p.m. Eastern time
- Location: Kroger Field in Lexington, Kentucky
- TV network options: The game will be aired nationally on SEC Network; a valid cable subscription is required for viewing. Coverage by Taylor Zarzour (play-by-play) and Matt Stinchcomb (color analyst.)
- Radio options: Mark Beier (play-by-play) and Jack Mewhort (color) will provide the Toledo call for the Rockets Radio Network; Tom Leach (play-by-play) and Jeff Piecoro (color) will provide the Kentucky call for the UK Sports Network.
- Gambling considerations: Kentucky favored by 10 points, with an over/under of 47.5, per DraftKings.
- All-Time Series: Kentucky won the only meeting between the two teams back in 2019, by a final margin of 38-24.
About the Kentucky Wildcats
The Wildcats were quite accustomed to winning under Mark Stoops, reaching bowl games in eight consecutive years highlighted by a pair of 10-win seasons. However, Kentucky’s recent run of success came to a screeching halt in 2024 when the team mustered up a 4-8 record. But when the Big Blue meet the MAC, the Wildcats typically end up on top, winning 17 consecutive matchups dating back to 2006, including a 41-6 thrashing of 2024 MAC champion Ohio.
Stoops’ crew looks to reload with an emphasis on creating more explosive plays on offense. After ranking 112th in passing offense burdened by a 53.5 completion rate and a TD-INT ratio of 15-17, Kentucky brought in 7th-year senior Zach Calzada, a former Texas A&M starter who bounced back to the SEC after a stellar run at FCS Incarnate Word. Calzada diced FCS defenses with 3,744 yards, 35 touchdowns, and nine interceptions last year, all while vastly improving his mobility.
Kentucky retains a leading rusher in Jamarion Wilcox but loses effective receiver talent in Dane Key and Barion Brown — the only two Wildcats to amass more than 20 receptions in 2024. Transfers Dante Dowdell (614 rushing yards, 12 TD at Nebraska last season) and Kendrick Law (105 receiving yards, 1 TD at Alabama last season) are among the new arrivals hoping to fix Kentucky’s 114th-ranked total offense.
The offensive line earned a pair of portal upgrades as well, bringing in All-CUSA and All-MAC selections Shiyazh Pete (from New Mexico State) and Alex Wollschlaeger (from Toledo’s arch rival Bowling Green) — much needed remedies after allowing 2.92 sacks per contest a year ago.
Defense is the strength of a typical Kentucky team, and even in last year’s 4-8 debacle, the unit stood firm with a 21st-ranking in run defense, allowing only 22.1 points per game. Half of the Wildcats’ 2024 opponents scored under 21 points, including some of the conference’s elite in Ole Miss and Georgia.
Four of Kentucky’s top six tacklers from 2024 return, including outside linebacker Alex Afari Jr. (62 tackles, 11 tackles for loss) and free safety Jordan Lovett (63 tackles, two interceptions). Outside of the returning talent, Kentucky brings in Mi’Quise Humphrey-Grace to spearhead the defensive line. An FCS First Team All-American at South Dakota, the 6’4”, 270 pound Humphrey-Grace brings 9.5 sacks and 17.0 tackles of loss to production to the group. On a transformed d-line, he’ll line up alongside Washington State transfer David Gusta, a 317-pound force who tallied six quarterback hurries last year.
About the Toledo Rockets
The Rockets, as mentioned, have been crowned favorites to win the MAC. There’s optimism in Jason Candle and crew to be able to navigate a severe talent loss on defense and incorporate some key transfer pieces into a consistently good offense.
Their schedule is also pretty favorable for success; Kentucky being their first opponent is ripe for grabbing the national pulse. If they can navigate through Saturday with a win, it’s entirely possible to run the table or take a loss and still be considered for the 12-team tournament.
The good news for Toledo is most of the offense returns intact. Jerjuan Newton (2,942 receiving yards, 32 touchdowns in six seasons) will be missed at receiver, but the Rockets return dual-threat quarterback Tucker Gleason (233-of-385 for 2,808 yards, 24 touchdowns, eight interceptions; 364 rushing yards, seven rushing touchdowns), GameAbove Sports Bowl MVP receiver Junior Vandeross (85 receptions, 957 yards, five touchdowns) and three of their five starting offensive linemen from last season, with Pitt transfer Terrance Moore providing both size and experience at center.
Other new names should plug right in to the Rockets offense, with four-time all-MAC selection Trayvon Rudolph (151 receptions for 2,032 yards and 10 touchdowns from 2020-24) joining the roster after transferring from Northern Illinois to play opposite Vandeross, while much-ballyhooed running back Chip Trayanum — a former Kentucky Wildcat — seeks to take the starting role and propel the Rockets to better numbers than last season.
The defensive side of the ball loses stars like day two NFL Draft selection Darius Alexander and perennial First Team All-MAC safety Maxen Hook, but the Rockets still exhibit elite talent on that side of the ball. The secondary should be the most stout unit with All-MAC cornerback Avery Smith (58 tackles, 14 pass breakups, and two interceptions), free safety Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, and nickel Nasir Bowers leading the charge.
Toledo allowed just 208 passing yards on an opponent completion rate of 57.5% last year, statistics that bode well for 2025 considering the returning talent. However, there’s considerable turnover in the first two levels of the defense. All five players that generated at least 7.5 tackles for loss in 2024 are gone, meaning defensive end Anthony Dunn Jr. and South Florida transfer middle linebacker Langston Long (44 of his 57 career tackles transpired at Virginia in 2022) are among the new faces leading the backfield invasion.
Final Thoughts
Most of the early-season games have been of the lower-scoring variety so far, especially contests involving the MAC. Considering the stature of the respective defenses, this one should see a similar lack of points. Kentucky’s refurbished defensive line and linebacking corps headlined by Alex Afari Jr. look to stifle Toledo at the line of scrimmage, while the Rockets’ stars in the secondary hope to prevent Kentucky from discovering an explosive gear on offense.
With two sharp defenses controlling the game flow, this one likely comes down to which offense can string together longer sustained possessions. Given Toledo’s experience with an established Tucker Gleason, who led a victory over Mississippi State in SEC country last year and edged Pitt in bowl season, along with effective receiving targets in Junior Vandeross and Trayvon Rudolph, the Rockets might have that edge. But offense is more than skill position talent, and this game comes down to how effectively the o-line can stave off a fierce Kentucky front.
Plenty is on the line for a Toledo team that eyes a CFP bid with a manageable schedule, and a victory in SEC territory for the second-straight season would be the perfect impetus for those talks to commence.
