It’s really hard to write a preview about the Miami Marlins after the San Francisco Giants took two out of three from the Dodgers. That series was the ultimate RETVRN to tradition in that the Giants overcame their longstanding Giantsness to actually dominate the Dodgers for 18 innings of the series. It’s a staggering embarrassment for the previously perfect if not impervious Dodgers, and it’s an early feather in the cap of Tony Vitello. But now he and these confident Giants now host the Marlins,
and they have proven to be a thorn in the Giants’ side as long as they’ve existed.
The Giants haven’t won the season series since 2022, and last season, their three-game sweep in San Francisco prompted headlines on here like “Not good enough!” and “So many opportunities, so little made of them” and “Done in by friendly fire.” That series also saw the Marlins register 4 hit by pitches in the first two games of the series, prompting retaliation in the finale (Hayden Birdsong plunked Otto Lopez). Previously, there was the Marlins Death Fog, which I guess — given last year’s sheninghans — remains relevant here.
The Marlins built their modest 12-13 record atop a very soft schedule to open the season, hosting the Rockies and the White Sox (5-1). They’re just 2-7 on the road so far, too. But, they’ve got a middle of the pack lineup (102 wRC+) and middle of the pack pitching staff (+2.7 fWAR 3.59 xERA) on the season and only the lineup has really fell down over the last two weeks (96 wRC+).
In fact, their last two weeks is a good comparison point with the Giants, when most people would agree that the team has started playing better. The Marlins’ team batting average since April 9th is .253, 10th in MLB. Their team OBP has been .330 and they’re slugging .364. They have a 9.4 BB% and 21.5 K%. They’ve scored just 53 runs (24th in MLB). Meanwhile, the Giants have a superior team batting average (.254 — 9th in MLB) but among the dregs of the sport everywhere else: .287 OBP (28th, ahead of only the Phillies & Mets), .366 slugging (24th), 40 runs scored (29th, ahead of only the Mets). And their 4.1 BB% (30th) and 20.7 K% (20th) and .112 ISO (26th) show just how little they produce in a rate sense. Their .292 wOBA (28th) is a key factor in their 84 wRC+ (25th).
The Giants might be a better team on paper, but through the first month of the season, the Marlins have been better. Leading the way are three acquisitions over the past few years: shortstop Xavier Edwards was acquired by Marlins exec Peter Bendix after he left the Rays and is off to a great start (.869 OPS). Otto Lopez, whom the Giants discarded at the end of Spring Training 2024 and the Marlins then grabbed, has a 3:1 strikeouts to walk rate but an .877 OPS to start out (101 PA). And then there’s 2024 Rule 5 acquisition Liam Hicks, a left-handed designated hitter who had a sub-.700 OPS last season but is hitting .321/.368/.513 with 4 homers and 21 RBI to start this season (87 PA).
Their pitching staff remains a work in progress but with two anchors: former Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara, who appears to be rounding back into form just in time for this year’s trade deadline (2.80 ERA plus a shutout under his belt already); but also, 23 year old Eury Perez who received some Rookie of the Year votes back in 2023 after striking out 108 in 91.1 IP.
Anyway, this figures to be a pesky series, but one the Giants should be competitive in, unless that Dodgers series was a complete mirage. The Giants have had the fifth-best team ERA over the past two weeks (3.48) and they’re playing a team that struggles on the road. The Marlins do have a raft of pesky players they can deploy to annoy us this series — Connor Norby, Esteury Ruiz, Owen Caissie, Kyle Stowers (more on him in a moment) — but so do the Giants — Christian Koss, Jerar Encarnacion, Drew Gilbert — so, hopefully, this doesn’t look like Miami’s last visit to Oracle Park.
And just to make sure we’re all a little tense or annoyed, the General Manager of the Marlins working under Peter Bendix is Gabe Kapler and the Marlins DFA’d Austin Slater before they left Miami for San Francisco.
Series overview
Who: San Francisco Giants (11-14) vs. Miami Marlins (12-13)
Where: Oracle Park | San Francisco, California
When: Friday at 7:15pm PT, Saturday at 1:05pm PT, Sunday at 1:05pm PT
National broadcasts: None.
Projected starters
Friday: Sandy Alcantara (RHP 2-2, 3.06 ERA) vs. Adrian Houser (RHP 0-2, 5.40 ERA)
Saturday: Eury Perez (RHP 2-1, 4.15 ERA) vs. Robbie Ray (LHP 2-3, 2.86 ERA)
Sunday: Max Meyer (RHP 1-0, 3.96 ERA) vs. Landen Roupp (RHP 4-1, 2.28 ERA)
Players to watch
Marlins
Kyle Stowers: He was the Marlins’ best hitter last season (25 HR, .912 OPS in 457 PA) but missed the start of this season due to a hamstring strain. He’s 3-for-10 since being activated off the IL, helping the Marlins win two out of the three games in which he’s played. The former Oriole was acquired by the Marlins along with Connor Norby at the 2024 deadline for LHP Trevor Rogers, who is now the apparent #1 starter of Baltimore’s staff. He’s got 2 career homers at Oracle Park in 6 games (23 PA) to go with a .316/.435/.737 line.
Pete Fairbanks: The Marlins didn’t trade him last year and then declined his option after the season which left people scratching their heads as to what was going on with a perfectly serviceable closer (75 saves across the three prior seasons). The obvious answer had to be a health issue. The Marlins signed him to a 1-year $13 million deal and, so far, they’ve been treated to a 7.27 ERA (7 ER in 8.2 IP). But! But… he’s recorded 5 saves in 6 tries, and has just one blown save (a 6-5 loss in Atlanta). His ERA is excused by a 2.34 FIP but also — and most importantly — 3 of the 7 earned runs he’s been charged with came as an opener against the Yankees back on April 5th. So, is he the lights out closer they’re paying for? That’s what Giants fans will find out soon enough.
Owen Caissie: In the offseason, the Cubs traded their #3 prospect at the end of 2025 (per MLB Pipeline) in order to get their hands on starter Edward Cabrera, who’d previously given the Giants some problems (3-0, 1.91 ERA!). He got into 12 games last year with Chicago and this year the Marlins slotted him in as their starting right fielder, and why not? He had a triumphant WBC for Team Canada (7/17 1 HR, 5 RBI, 3 BB). But the results here in the 2026 regular season have been suboptimal: 2 homers, 14 RBI in 23 games (78 PA), sure, but 34 strikeouts to 3 walks. He’s also 5-for-his-last-37, too, with 1 walk and 21 strikeouts! It would be a real shame if this was the weekend he found his swing.
Giants
Rafael Devers: You know what? You don’t have to watch him. He’s been terrible. Unwatchable. Is he washed? Cooked? Finito? Maybe. It’s baseball, after all. Sometimes, players wake up one morning and they’re no longer able to play the game. Devers’ own brand of not being able to play the game is his ability to swing through pitches in the strike zone. On defense, he’s been physically able to stay around the bag but he’s hardly the sturdy defender needed there. In fairness, he’s 7-for-26 going back to the start of the Nats series (6 games), but a .269 average with just 2 extra base hits (doubles) and zero walks to go with 10 strikeouts is simply not the kind of production from Devers one might call “fine.” He’s slugging .320 on the season. He’s off to his worst start ever.
Erik Miller: Ryan Walker’s triumphant return of sorts to the closer role was certainly heartening to see, but in this series, Miami will be flashing some dangerous lefties and it’ll be up to the Giants’ most dangerous lefty to corral them.
Christian Koss: He last got into a game on April 12th. Play him or option him!
Tony Vitello watch
The Marlins have flummoxed many a Giants manager before. Will Vitello be different?
Prediction time
The Giants will win the series.
