Northwestern 2025-2026 Season
Overall Record: 13 – 16
Big 10 Record: 5 – 13
Previous 3 Games
2/28: W – 63 – 62 vs Oregon @ Home
2/24: W – 72 – 68 vs Indiana @ Away
2/17: W – 78 – 74 vs Maryland @ Home
Personnel
Starters
Bench
Key Analytics
(Per KenPom.com – National Rank / Big 10 Rank in ())
KenPom Ranking – 68
Offense
Adjusted Efficiency: 116.5 (73) – Big 10 Only: 105.1 (14)
Adjusted Tempo: 65.7 (262) – Big 10 Only: 65.4 (9)
Average Possession Length: 17.5 (169) – Big 10 Only: 18.3 (8)
Effective Field Goal%: 51.1 (188) – Big 10 Only: 48.7 (14)
Offensive Rebound%: 27.8 (275) – Big 10 Only:
26.2 (14)
Three Point%: 32.3 (265) – Big 10 Only: 31.9 (12)
Two Point %: 52.5 (152) – Big 10 Only: 49.1 (17)
Defense
Adjusted Efficiency: 104.4 (79) – Big 10 Only: 115.7 (14)
Adjusted Tempo: 65.7 (262) – Big 10 Only: 65.4 (9)
Average Possession Length: 17.5 (169) – Big 10 Only: 18.8 (14)
Effective Field Goal%: 51.1 (188) – Big 10 Only: 53.6 (12)
Offensive Rebound%: 27.8 (275) – Big 10 Only: 34.9 (18)
Three Point%: 32.3 (265) – Big 10 Only: 36 (15)
Two Point %: 52.5 (152) – Big 10 Only: 53.4 (7)
Key Stat for Purdue
(Per KenPom.com – Big 10 Rank in ())
*Note: I’m only using Big 10 stats for this section because I think it better represents how both teams are currently playing.
Offense
Three Point Percentage
Purdue Offense: 37.4 (2)
Northwestern Defense: 36 (15)
Thoughts:
Outside shooting hasn’t been the issue for Purdue, and in times like these, I’m going to lean into the Boilermakers strength. They hit 11/29 (38%) in the Ohio State game, and Fletcher Loyer has been red hot over the last five games, hitting 15/28 from behind the arc, including a 5/9 performance from deep against the Buckeyes. In addition to Loyer, CJ Cox has been hot from deep, hitting 10/ 24 over the last five games. Braden has been the only guard misfiring down the stretch, only hitting 8/24 over the same stretch of games.
I want to say that if Purdue hits 40% from deep in this game, it won’t matter how many defensive abominations occur, but I thought the same thing against Ohio State. If nothing else, Purdue has to hit its outside shots to offset some of its defensive issues and hope they can hold up in the paint.
Defense
Nick Martinelli
If Nick Martinelli doesn’t score and score big, Northwestern can’t win this game. The problem, of course, is that Martinelli is just the sort of athletic wing that gives Purdue fits. He attacks the basket and uses his size and strength to finish around the rim. Even worse, he plays with an energy level that Purdue has failed to match in recent games, outside of TKR and Benter.
CJ Cox will start off on Martinelli, but will he end up on Martinelli? Look for Northwestern to try to get a switch early in the possession, then clear out for Martinelli late and let him attack whatever unfortunate front-court player draws the assignment. He’s scored 20+ points in the last three games, and Northwestern has won all of those games.
If Purdue can hold him under 20 points, it’s going to be tough for Northwestern to score enough to win. If he goes for 25+ as he did against Indiana and Maryland, the Boilermakers might be in trouble. He’s literally the first, second, and third line on the Northwestern scouting report, I’d like to think the coaching staff can figure out a way to slow him down.
Brief Thoughts
This game is more about Purdue than Northwestern. The Wildcats need the Boilermakers’ help to win this game. I see no reason why Purdue doesn’t come out with its hair on fire and dominate this game from the opening tip. I’m not super confident it will happen, but it needs to happen.
These seniors need to make a statement on Wednesday.
The rest of the Big 10 thinks Purdue is a soft touch. They think that if you lean on this team, they’ll mentally crumble. That’s what I see as well, and it’s a self-fulfilling prophecy at this point. Teams come out looking to punk this team because they’ve seen other teams do it. Ohio State beat them up, and I didn’t see much in terms of a response.
Braden, Trey, and Fletcher still have a chance, as fleeting as it seems at the moment, to change the narrative on this season. If they don’t make a statement against Northwestern, I’m not sure that chance still exists.
Predictions
KenPom
Purdue: 79
Northwestern: 70
Drew
Purdue: Don’t know
Northwestern: Prefer not to say
Looking Into My Crystal Ball
Smashes crystal ball with a hammer.
I got nothing, guys.
