The San Diego Padres president of baseball operations, A.J. Preller, will be in Las Vegas over the next several days with other baseball executives and player agents to plan the offseason following the 2026 season.
That job will be complicated this year by the looming labor unrest and lockout that will almost definitely begin late on Dec. 1. The only previous precedent for this was the 2021-2022 offseason, when the last Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) was set to expire. During that short window
of 2021, teams spent $1.9 billion before the lockout began.
Although that free agent class was deeper, there are still over 180 free agents on the market looking for jobs before the next season begins. When the GM Meetings begin today there will be 22 days of free agency before the deadline for the expiration of the current CBA. Obviously, not all of those players will sign over that time, but a good portion should find homes for next season.
The top of the list, starting with starting pitcher Tarik Skubal, will pull down big deals with big-market teams but that might not happen right away. Selling to the highest bidder often takes time, and with nothing having happened yet, the window is closing for complex deals that require teams to match bids with one another.
Super agent Scott Boras, who has multiple players on the market, likes to shop his prizes around and often works out megadeals late in the game.
Padres need a lot of help
There is no hiding the fact that the Padres are in the market for starting pitching. After losing all but one starter to free agency, the Friars have an entire rotation needing pitchers. With the exception of Randy Vásquez, A.J. Preller has not only four spots to shore up but also depth to build.
Assuming that Joe Musgrove will pitch in 2027, there is no guarantee he will be a starter. His balky elbow, unwilling to bounce back quickly from the stress of pitching, has kept him from being a starter so far.
Yu Darvish has not given any definitive indication of his decision about pitching in the future. He was seen around the team and at Petco Park during his rehab last season but he has made no public statements about his contract next season.
LHP Luis Gutierrez was added to the 40-man roster to avoid losing the starter to free agency but remains unproven beyond the Double-A level. It is unlikely he would win a job out of spring camp.
RHP Kannon Kemp is probably the closest other minor league pitcher to reach the major leagues but is also probably not an option to start the year.
LHP JP Sears is a depth piece, at best. He has not come close to being able to contribute effectively to the Padres since his arrival in 2025.
RHP Jhony Brito is returning from Tommy John surgery but was unproven as a starter or a reliever prior to his injury. He will definitely get a test during the run-up to the 2027 season but his contributions is a question at this point.
Everyone else on the roster is a reliever. It seems to have been decided that trying to return Mason Miller to a starter role is not wise and the Padres don’t seem inclined to try it.
Based on the unwillingness of the organization to trust Vásquez in the playoffs last season, they don’t view him as anything other than a back-end starter. His inconsistency so far in his career has undermined any trust the organization might have developed in his ability. He should be viewed as a 4 or 5 guy in the rotation.
Preller has a lot of work to do
With all that, it seems obvious the Padres need to sign multiple pitchers and investigate the trade market as well. Not knowing the budget that Preller has to work with, we have to assume the team can’t splurge on any big contracts. What capital they have has to be spread out over multiple pitchers, not just one big investment.
Starting with the meetings in Las Vegas, the organization has to lay the groundwork for multiple deals and it wouldn’t hurt to sign or trade for some help quickly.
After declining the option for Nick Pivetta, the Padres signaled their unwillingness to risk significant money on an injured pitcher without any guarantees or protections. It remains possible Pivetta could return on an incentive-laden contract that provides protections to the organization. If that is the case, there is no way to depend on that player for anything going forward.
Based on an article written by Tim Britton, Johnny Flores, Jr. and Chad Jennings, in The Athletic, the list of free agents contains top level Skubal and is then followed by multiple starters who rank below him in performance.
As a group, they ranked the players and listed projections for their 2027 contracts. Of the pitchers listed, here are some options that we could see in Padres brown and gold. The ages listed are for the 2027 season.
RHP Sonny Gray – the 37-year-old will probably get a two-year deal due to his age. He was still highly effective in 2026 with a 2.72 ERA in 169 innings. Their projection was for two years, $55 million.
RHP Freddy Peralta – the 31-year-old had an up-and-down 2026 but finished strong with the World Series-contending Tampa Bay Rays. He had a 4.44 ERA over 169 innings with the New York Mets and the Rays.
RHP Michael King – after opting out of his contract with the Padres, there is still a chance they re-sign King. He is projected to receive a three-year, $78 million deal. That would give him similar money to what the Padres already had him signed for but with another year added.
RHP Clay Holmes – the 34-year-old was once a reliever but his elite sinker helped him successfully convert to starting. His 2026 season was interrupted by injury and he was unable to return to his old form after recovery. He is best suited to a team with a strong infield defense due to his high ground ball rates. The projection is for three years, $57 million.
RHP Michael Soroka – the 29-year-old has had multiple injury issues since his arrival in the big leagues and his durability is in question. When healthy, he has been in the 80th percentile in chase rate, hard-hit rate and walk rate. He threw 116 innings in 2026 with a 3.41 ERA. His projection is for three years, $54 million.
LHP Shota Imanaga – the 33-year-old has been plagued by home run issues since his debut in 2024. He ranks as a middle rotation starter or better and pitched 174.1 innings last season with a 3.77 ERA. He is projected to get a two-year, $34 million deal.
RHP Nick Martinez – Since leaving the Padres, Martinez has turned himself into an All-Star. He was Tampa Bay’s No. 2 starter during their pennant-winning season. He isn’t a strikeout pitcher but is effective nonetheless. In 180 innings in 2026, Martinez had a 3.10 ERA. He is projected to receive a two-year, $38 million contract.
RHP Kaima Taira – the 27-year-old Japanese free agent enters the MLB class after throwing 146 innings for the Seibu Lions. He was a reliever for much of his career but converted to a starter this past season. He pitched to a 1.36 ERA with a big arsenal of pitches and a fastball that tops out at 100 mph. His diminutive size (5-foot-8) could be a concern, as well as his brief track record as a starter but it will be up to teams to decide what they are willing to risk.
RHP Hiromi Itoh – At 29 years old, the Japanese free agent has been durable and consistent in his career so far. He threw 172.2 innings in 2026 with a 3.18 ERA for the Nippon-Ham Fighters.
There are other starters on the list but these seem the most suited for the Padres needs. Signing one or two should be the minimum goal before the onset of the lockout. Any trades made by the team will be dependant on how other organizations value their minor league talent as well as which roster players they are willing to deal. The trade market is much more of a question at this point with the limitations the team has with their farm system.
The next 22 days will be interesting to watch. And it might be the last fun baseball fans have for awhile.
