We can finally focus on football. The San Francisco 49ers will travel to Seattle to take on their divisional rivals. We’ll go over what’s changed about each team since the last time they played. Spoiler: A lot.
Both teams have plenty of questions heading into 20205. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, the Niners are short favorites at -2.5, with a total of 43.5 on the game, juiced to the under. That’s the third-lowest total of any game in Week 1.
How are these odds different from a year ago? When the Niners
traveled to Seattle in Week 6, they were 3.5-point road favorites, with a total on the game of 46.5, although that number was as high as 49.5 by kickoff. San Francisco won handily, 36-24. Week 6’s result, combined with the addition of Christian McCaffrey, led to a three-point adjustment to the spread and a two-point adjustment to the total. Despite being 6.5-point home favorites, Geno Smith led a game-winning drive in a low-scoring victory for Seattle, 20-17.
Geno ain’t walking through that door. Seattle won’t have seven receptions and 70 yards from DK Metcalf, either. Ideally, Nick Bosa will be on the field in the fourth quarter for Robert Saleh, another “newcomer” for the Niners.
Verdict: Lay the points with the Niners.
Potential props
Brock Purdy’s passing prop is 243 yards. He went under that number only four times last season. In Week 1, the 49ers had a comfortable lead over the Jets and didn’t need to throw the ball in the fourth quarter. In Week 7, the Niners lost Brandon Aiyuk and were throwing to Ronnie Bell in the second half. In Week 11 and Week 15, two divisional games.
The question might be, “Who is Brock going to throw it to?” When I would counter with Who is going to rush the passer for Seattle? Purdy’s yards seem low, and that’s for a reason. We’re not going to jump in when he doesn’t have weapons against a defensive-minded coach who had half a year to prepare for him.
Seattle figured to take a leap defensively in Year 2 under Mike MacDonald. The fact that his units were above average last year is a testament to who he is as a coach. However, they were 21st in rushing success rate. Seattle was near the bottom in EPA per rush, rushing yards allowed, and explosive rushing percentage. Welcome back, Christian. The Seahawks can easily be gashed in the running game if McCaffrey can make one person miss. His rushing prop is 72.5.
McCaffrey is healthy. When that’s the case, he gets the ball—a lot. We’ll take the Niners’ best player and trust Kyle Shanahan’s scheme to bring him closer to 100 rushing yards than 70.
