Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills offense have been really, really good over the past six years. You know this. Everyone knows this. Almost all the ways the Bills offense has been really, really good in the Allen era have been well documented over the last half-decade plus.
One really, really impressive area of Buffalo’s attack I don’t believe is mentioned enough — how tremendous Allen and Co. have been in 3rd and 10-plus situations, when the offense’s back is against the wall, and naturally, the conversion
rate is relatively low.
(Before I show you the rankings, I’ll admit — this the type of research one does in early July.)
Here is the Top 5 in 3rd and 10-plus (along with each team’s conversion rate in those scenarios) since the start of 2020:
The Bills have nearly converted 30% of their 3rd and 10-plus yard scenarios over a giant six-year sample that includes 290 such plays.
Interestingly too, the Bills 290 plays in 3rd and 10-plus represents the lowest figure in the NFL since the beginning of 2020 — Buffalo stays out of these precarious scenarios better than any team in football.
And to put that 27.9% conversation rate into perspective… it was close to the Vikings *overall* 3rd-down conversation rate in any down-and-distance scenario in the 2025 season (31.7%)
Unsurprisingly, the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs came in second but noticeably behind the Bills. The percentage-point difference between Buffalo at No. 1 and Kansas City at No. 2 is almost exactly the same as Kansas City and the No. 5-ranked Chargers.
The Lamar Jackson-led Ravens were just outside the Top 5 at No. 6 at 22.9%, while Joe Burrow’s Bengals were seventh 22.1%.
Other notable ranks:
- Lions – 8th at 21.9%
- Eagles – 9th at 20.9%
- Texans – 13th at 20.3%
- Rams – 17th at 19.5%
- Broncos – 18th at 19.0%
- Buccaneers – 19th at 18.9%
- Cowboys – 24th at 17.8%
Now you know, when a team is faced with a 3rd and 10 (or longer) there’s roughly a 20% chance they ultimately convert the first down.
Or, if it’s the Bills with the ball, that chance is close to 30%.
Given Allen’s pocket brilliance, improvisational mastery, and scrambling acumen, it probably shouldn’t be that surprising he’s been better at converting those 3rd and a mile situations than any other quarterback in the NFL.
