The 9-seeded Iowa Hawkeyes (24-12, 10-10) are facing down the 3-seeded Illinois Fighting Illini (27-8, 15-5) after they took down the hometown Houston Cougars. The Hawks are looking to advance to their first Final Four since 1980 while Illinois hasn’t been there since 2005.
These team’s first matchup was an Illinois used an early 13-0 run to make a despondent Ben McCollum say “concentrate” a dozen times during an early huddle. The Hawks fought back but could never close the gap to less than 4 down
the stretch.
On the season, there are really no “WTF” losses on the Illini’s resume once people recognized the home loss against Nebraska said just as much about the Cornhuskers’ ability as anything. Like them, Illinois bowed out in their first game in the Big Ten Tournament after the double-bye. It was an overtime loss to Wisconsin, their second loss to the Badgers on the season.
The key to Iowa getting a victory today is as it’s been pretty much all season, though it’s come to focus over the last month: limit runs. Though they yielded the early run to Illinois in their first matchup, that was the only one they allowed per KenPom. Since the frustrating loss at Penn State, limiting runs has allowed Iowa to stick with more highly rated teams.
KenPom didn’t capture any opponent runs against Michigan and Nebraska to close the regular season (both close losses) but a 15-0 run by Maryland and 17-3 run by OSU had their Big Ten Tournament come to an early run. After not yielding a run to either Clemson or Florida, the Hawks had to battle back from a 12-2 run against Nebraska.
The Illini are a load and used a 2nd half 20-2 run to get a big lead on Houston in their own Sweet 16 matchup. Runs against VCU (24-4) and Penn (14-2, 13-2) allowed those to become laughers.
Similar to Nebraska, the Illini will just launch 3s, with 50.3% of their attempts coming from deep despite being the nation’s tallest team, according to KenPom. They shoot 35.1% from deep and it opens up driving & cutting lanes for their bevy of skilled players.
They also use that size to rebound their own misses at a high rate, with a 39.1% offensive rebounding rate. Can Iowa replicate their performance against Florida who rebounded 43.3% of their misses on the season?
Defensively, the Illinois don’t pressure offenses (lowest turnover rate in the country) but balance it with not allowing opponent free throws. Nebraska zagged early and tried to pound the offensive glass to get the Hawks in an early hole. Would the Illini try and turn Iowa over early to try and build an early lead which disallows Bennett Stirtz from dictating pace? Or will they trust their stellar defense to just do it’s job?
Most of the analytics give Iowa another 1/4 chance of winning, much like their chances against Florida. Can the Hawks get another upset and punch their ticket to Indianapolis??
#9 Iowa Hawkeyes (24-12, 10-10) vs #3 Illinois Fighting Illini (27-8, 15-5)
Today, 3/28, at 5:09 PM, TBS/truTV (Kevin Harlan, Robbie Hummel, Stan Van Gundy, Lauren Shehadi)
Toyota Center, Houston, TX
Hawkeye Radio Network | Westwood One
Live Stats (NCAA)
Stat Pack
Brad Underwood (192-109 at Illinois, 300-136 overall)
KenPom ($): +33.98 (131.5; 2nd | 97.5 21st)
BartTorvik: 6th (132.5; 2nd | 97.7; 20th)
Sports-Ref:
PPG: 84.2 (21st) | 69 (56th)
RPG: 41.1 | 30.9
Leaders (via Sports-Ref)
PPG: Keaton Wagler (17.7), David Mirkovic (13.7)
RPG: Mirkovic (8.0, 2.5 off), Tomislav Ivisic (5.7, 1.7 off)
APG: Wagler (4.3), Kylan Boswell (3.1)
FG% (min 10 MPG, 2 FGA/game): Zvonimir Ivisic (51.2%), Andrej Stojakovic (49.5%)
3P% (min 1 3PA/game): Jake Davis (41.2%), Wagler (41.1%)
Last 5 games
3/26: W v Houston (N): 65-55
3/21: W v VCU (N): 76-55
3/19: W v Penn (N): 105-70
3/13: L v Wisconsin (N): 91-88 (OT)
3/8: W at Maryland: 78-72
Let’s go Hawks!
