The Spurs depth in the regular season was one of their strengths, with up to 11 current players having rotation spots at some point or another. That includes veteran Harrison Barnes and rookie Carter Bryant swapping places midseason, but even as the rotation has shortened, they have both still been situationally used in the playoffs (albeit in short leashes).
Despite all that depth, how the game has gone for the Spurs has depended more and more on how Victor Wembanyama has performed as the playoffs
progress. When he’s great, the Spurs usually win, but when he’s merely “good” but doesn’t get a lot of help (or, you know, has to leave the game for reasons he either did or didn’t cause), the Spurs have struggled. Now that we have reached the NBA Finals against a similarly deep and stronger Knicks team, everyone will have to step up.
The Spurs have seen almost everyone step up at some point or another in these playoffs, but there’s one player they seem to benefit the most from when he has a big game, and that’s rookie guard Dylan Harper. In our In the Bonus article from after Game 7 against the Thunder, this was part of my answer to the question, “Who was the second most important Spur” after Victor Wembanyama:
I’m going to go out on a limb (and probably differ from everyone else) and say Harper because he is the biggest wildcard of the group. Outside of Wemby, perhaps the biggest deciding factor in each game was if the Spurs’ bench would hold on when he sat, and when Harper was out for most of Game 2 or ineffective from games 3-5 with the sore adductor, it was a much bigger hurdle for them to overcome. When he was on point in games 1 (which he admittedly started), 6 and 7, the Spurs had the upper hand almost the entire time.
This got me to thinking, as many X factors as the Spurs have in this series, Harper could be the most important one, just like he was against OKC. An X factor is defined as “a circumstance, quality, or person that has a strong but unpredictable influence,” and that certainly applies to Harper. He’s a rookie, and despite having a poise and maturity level beyond his years, he‘s still going to have his ups and downs, but perhaps nothing showed his value more than when he was at his best against the Thunder, and that is bound to be the case against the Knicks as well.
None of this is to say he needs to be their second best player or leading scorer after Wemby or completely take over games, but he needs to help keep the offense flowing for the second unit when De’Aaron Fox and/or Stephon Castle sits and keep hitting big, timely shots like he did in Game 7. As previously stated, when he’s been on, the Spurs have had the advantage; when he isn’t, they suffer when the starters sit. The Finals is all hands on deck, and even though Keldon Johnson was Sixth Man of the Year, the second unit’s performance and perhaps the Spurs’ fate begins and ends with Harper.
(For added proof, FanDuel Sportsbook has Harper as 4th most likely Spur to win Finals MVP behind Wemby, Fox and Castle. How far has he come that a rookie bench player is looked so highly upon?)
Other Spurs X Factors
Julian Champagnie — After a hot first round, Champagnie’s three-point shooting has been up and down in the last two rounds, and his impact is pretty clear. In their 12 wins, he has shot 40% from three; in their six loss, just 29.8%. Almost every rotation player on the Knicks is an above average three-point shooter, which could be their biggest advantage. The Spurs will need everyone to step up in that regard, especially their best shooter, who needs to either help prevent double-teams on Wemby by making shots or capitalize off them — by making shots.
De’Aaron Fox’s ankle — As an All-Star, Fox himself is not a X Factor, but his gimpy ankle turns him into one. After suffering a high ankle sprain in the second round against Minnesota, he missed Games 1 and 2 against the Thunder, which the Spurs split thanks to a fantastic performance from Harper in Game 1. However, it took him until about Game 6 or 7 to look right again, but while the Spurs certainly missed his slashing ability and automatic offense in that time frame, his mere presence was able keep the turnovers down. They’ll need that at a minimum from him again, but the closer he can get to the healthiest version of himself, the better.
Keldon Johnson — It goes without saying that KJ has suffered the Curse of the Award in these playoffs (a.k.a. when a player wins something, then their production in the postseason suffers — it’s especially known to attack MVP’s). Similar to Harper and another player to be listed below, the Spurs need the bench to perform in those crucial non-Wemby (and Fox, Castle, etc.) minutes. KJ got some redemption with an offensive explosion in the fourth quarter of Game 7, and they’ll need of his Sixth Man of the Year form throughout the Finals.
Luke Kornet — Kornet has and will continue to be the target of driving lanes the instant Wemby sits because opponents know how valuable those minutes are. He’s not the only reason the non-Wemby minutes have been largely negative, but he’s the one carrying the burden, fairly or not. Like KJ, hopefully his redemption from Game 7 carries over. We may also get some French Vanilla minutes since the Knicks are equally as capable of playing two bigs, so that’s another scenario he needs to be ready for and could be a huge factor.
