When the playoffs started a couple of weeks ago, I thought there was no way we would be looking at the possibility of a Game 7 in Round 1. If you told me it was the Pistons needing to win to force that Game 7, I would have called you crazy. However, that is the reality for the Pistons.
It is no longer a 7-game series, but a single-elimination tournament against the same team. No room for mistakes, no chance to redeem yourself if you have a bad game. Win and you have a chance to bring the series back
home and send the Orlando Magic packing. Lose and you become one of the seven number one seeds to lose to the eight seed. You will enter a Summer full of questions and have to face the reality that this may have been your best shot at making the NBA Finals in a weaker East at the top.
The pressure is on the Pistons to perform. The Magic will once again be short-handed without Franz Wagner, but as they proved last game, they can still put up a fight without him.
Let’s get this series back home.
Game Vitals
Where: Kia Center in Orlando, FL
When: Friday, May 1 at 7 pm EST
Watch: Amazon Prime
Odds: Pistons (-3.5)
Analysis
As I mentioned above, the Orlando Magic will once again be without Franz Wagner due to the calf injury he suffered in Game 4. Given what has happened with players recently who have suffered calf injuries, I would suspect we would not see Franz in a potential game 7, but I guess that remains to be seen and ultimately may not matter if the Pistons aren’t ready to play tonight.
The Pistons injury report is not clean either as Tobias Harris is questionable with an ankle injury. I would assume that he plays given the circumstances, but if he does not play the Pistons will be facing an uphill battle offensively, as he has been their number 2 option throughout the series.
Luckily for the Pistons, the Magic had much less success slowing down Cade Cunningham without Franz Wagner’s size and strength. The Magic threw a slew of defenders at Cade in Game 5 and nobody had any success as he went off for a Pistons’ Franchise Record 45 points and did it on high efficiency. He was 13-of-23 from the field, 5-of-8 from beyond the arc, and 14-of-14 from the free throw line.
Cade has been successful scoring the ball throughout the series, but it came on poor 3-point shooting and low efficiency with a mind-numbing amount of turnovers. Cunningham still turned over the ball 6 times in Game 5, but they were not as damaging as the 24 turnovers he had over the previous 3 games since Orlando had less success with scoring off of them.
A noticeable change the Pistons made in Game 5 was allowing Ausar Thompson to play on the ball more while Cade Cunningham played off the ball. This allowed Cade to hunt mismatches, which he obviously had a lot of success with. The most important development from Thompson being on the ball is it allowed him to push the pace on rebounds, which scrambled Orlando’s defense and opened up the offense a bit, they also could not have Thompson’s man roam as much off ball to reek havoc in the passing lanes because they had to guard Thompson. When he is camped out in the corner, he is not a threat to shoot and you can get away with not guarding him since he won’t beat you from deep.
Some of the above is also likely due to the loss of Franz Wagner, who has done a fantastic job defending Cade Cunningham throughout the series. He is pretty much the only defender on Orlando’s roster that has the size, strength, and defensive chops to stay in front of Cade without needing much help.
The main reason why the Magic were able to keep Game 5 close and even almost steal it at the end is because of an out-of-body shooting night from Paolo Banchero. Banchero has a reputation as being a “playoff-riser,” but he rose to a level far beyond even his best playoff performance of his young career. He did absolutely everything for Orlando on offense. It started with drives to the basket that the Pistons could not stop. That lead to the Pistons bringing an extra defender to slow him down which opened up wide open 3s for the other players on the team who actually made them. Finally, in the 4th, Paolo was unconscious from 3 and many of them were pretty contested attempts.
It led to a 45% shooting night for the Magic from beyond the arc, which I don’t expect them to replicate given their 3-point shooting numbers on the season. If the Pistons are unable to find a way to slow down Paolo Banchero, the Magic have a shot at repeating what they did on Wednesday. It is one thing to overcome a shooting night like that when you are on your home floor, but it is another thing to try to do it on the road.
If Tobias Harris is unable to play, the Pistons may want to consider starting Isaiah Stewart at the 4 since he has the size and movement skills on the perimeter to at least slow down Paolo Banchero. It may lead to a disastrous night offensively, but I think that would be the case with anybody you start in place of Tobias Harris.
Game 5 was a thriller between two young superstars trying to will their team to the win and Game 6 likely has to have a similar formula. If the Pistons are forced to play without Tobias Harris, I have a hard time seeing how they can generate enough offense to win.
Jalen Duren probably had his best game of the series on Wednesday, but he still only scored 12 points on 6 shots and grabbed 9 rebounds. In theory, he should be the one to take on Tobias Harris’ scoring load if he cannot play, but he has given no reason to believe he can do that during this series.
Let’s hope Tobias Harris guts out the injury and the Pistons are able to steal a win on the road and bring it home for a Game 7.
Lineups
Detroit Pistons (2-3): Cade Cunningham, Duncan Robinson, Ausar Thompson, Tobias Harris, Jalen Duren
Orlando Magic (3-2): Jalen Suggs, Desmond Bane, Jamal Cain, Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr
Question of the Day
This one is pretty easy, will the Pistons force a Game 7?
