The New York Jets have been eliminated from the playoffs for the 15th consecutive season. You know what the Jets haven’t done even once in those 15 years? They’ve never made the first pick in the NFL Draft.
In fact, they haven’t made the first pick in the NFL Draft since 1996 when the franchise selected Keyshawn Johnson. So how can the Jets get there this year? It’s complicated.
Jets Lose Out
The first step is that the Jets have to lose out. They have the Jacksonville Jaguars, New Orleans Saints, New England Patriots, and Buffalo Bills, with three of those games on the road. A quick reminder in case you’ve forgotten, the Jets have just one road win this season, against the Jake Browning led Bengals.
A loss to the Jaguars and the Patriots seems secured. However, the Saints and Bills, not so much. Why the Bills? Well, there’s no guarantee that the Bills will be playing for anything that week. If the Pats have the division secured and the Bills are locked into their wildcard spot then they probably play backups in that one.
Meanwhile, the game with the most consequence is the Saints game. Both of these teams need quarterbacks and both of them are in contention to pick number one. How this game goes could determine the future of both franchises. Not unlike the Jets/Pats game just two years ago that landed the Pats Drake Maye, or the Jets/Titans game way back in 2014 that landed the Titans Marcus Mariota. Of course, the Jets won both of those games and in return they were rewarded with Olu Fashanu in 2024 and Leonard Williams in 2015.
If the Jets lose to the Saints and completely lose out as a result, they will have a legitimate chance to select first overall. However, they’ll need a lot of help.
Help from others
As things stand the Jets are set to select seventh overall, as they’re caught up in a glut of two and three win teams. The good news is, if they lose out, they just need five others to find one more win, as the Jets would already be past the Saints.
Let’s start looking at the teams in front of the Jets and their upcoming schedules. Starting with the team that currently owns the top pick, the New York Giants.
Giants: Washington Commanders, Minnesota Vikings, Las Vegas Raiders, and Dallas Cowboys
The Giants have the easiest schedule of anyone remaining and will play a huge role in who picks number one. Both the Commanders and the Raiders are currently slated to pick in front of the Jets. But the best case scenario here isn’t a split. As you’ll see when the games for both the Raiders and Commanders come up, the Giants are their easiest opponent left. So, the best case scenario would be the Giants defeating the also under .500 Vikings and losing to both the Commanders and the Raiders.
Let’s use that as a transition to both the Commanders and the Raiders, who currently own the 6th and 3rd selections, respectively.
Commanders: Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles
The best case scenario here is a win against the Giants as previously outlined. However, there does come the option that the Eagles have nothing to play for in Week 18 and send out their backups. A potential win there could also push the Commanders behind the Jets in the draft order.
Raiders: Eagles, Houston Texans, Giants, and Kansas City Chiefs
This is where things get tricky. The Giants are the only winnable game here for the Raiders barring a massive upset. So if they can’t get that win, there’s little hope for the Jets to select first overall. It’s very possible that the Giants and Raiders game in Week 17 could determine who will make this year’s first pick if they both come into that game with 2 wins.
Now let’s take a look at the longshot teams, the Cleveland Browns and the Tennessee Titans.
Browns: Chicago Bears, Pittsburgh Steelers, Bills, and Cincinnati Bengals
It’s pretty much impossible to find a win here for Cleveland. Will the Bears underperform for a week? Will a hurt Aaron Rodgers be limited against the Browns pass rush? Will the Bills implode? Will Joe Burrow be healthy in Week 18? It’s difficult to figure out how they come away with a single win from these games. That said, they do already have a win over the Packers this year. So perhaps lightning can strike twice for them.
Titans: San Francisco 49ers, Chiefs, Saints, and Jaguars
The Titans have a very narrow chance to get a win. It comes in Week 17. The Saints could be riding high coming into that one after defeating the Jets in Week 16. However, the Titans will play that game at home. There’s also a small chance that the Jaguars go into Week 18 with the AFC South title locked up and nothing to play for. In that instance, the Titans would potentially get a game against the Jags’ backups. However, it’s unlikely the Jags will have the division locked up by then.
Can the Jets get the #1 pick?
Well, the Week 14 slate didn’t help the Jets draft position, but it did maximize their chances to the get the first pick. However, those chances are still incredibly slim.
If the Jets do lose out, they are almost certain to lock in a pick in the top-4 given the other games being played between the Commanders, Raiders, and Giants. A top-4 pick won’t land them their likely target, Fernando Mendoza though. And the last thing the Jets and their fan base wants is an expensive trade up after acquiring a bounty of picks for trading away two franchise cornerstones.
The top pick is in sight, even if it’s just a faint light at the end of a dark tunnel right now. Is this the year the football gods help the Jets and land them at the bottom of the pile? It’s unlikely, but hey, they’ve got a chance.
