This morning, Spencer Nusbaum wrote about the state of the Nationals pitching staff entering 2027, and there was one thing that stood out. He said that Paul Toboni indicated Jake Irvin had “put himself in good position to compete for a rotation spot”. Given the way Irvin has pitched for the past 2.5 seasons, I find that to be discouraging.
Back in 2024, Jake Irvin had a solid season, carried by a great first half. He posted a 4.41 ERA in 187.2 innings with 2 fWAR. Those are solid back of the rotation numbers. However, things have fallen apart since then. In 2025, he posted a 5.70 ERA and this season he had a 5.48 earned run average. With lower velocity and home run struggles, things have not been pretty for Irvin.
Given how bad things have been, I would be quite pessimistic about giving Irvin yet another year in the rotation. We have a very long sample size of Irvin not being effective now. Since the All-Star break of 2024, Jake Irvin has posted a 5.68 ERA in 358.1 innings. I get that the Nats trust their player development team, but running it back with Irvin in the rotation does not make much sense.
In some ways, I get why people would like Irvin. He is a big, strong right hander who generates a ton of extension and throws from a low arm slot. By all accounts, he is a great guy and hard worker as well. I actually think he could have success in the bullpen because of the fact he has shown the ability to sit in the mid-90’s for short bursts.
A big reason why the Nats seem to have faith in Irvin is because they believe that with the right development, he can sit at 95 MPH deep into starts. That is what Nusbaum wrote in his piece. However, I am not as convinced about this. Velocity fluctuation has been a problem for years now with Irvin. Will the light just suddenly come on for a pitcher who is about to turn 30 years old?
That is what the team seems to hope for. Right now, he is working in West Palm Beach trying to increase that velocity. I will have to see it to believe it though because Irvin has been trying to solve this velocity problem for years now. In my opinion, the best way to solve that issue is to move him to the bullpen and just let him rip.
We have a multi-year sample of Jake Irvin being an ineffective starting pitcher. Not many guys get a third opportunity after back to back seasons with an ERA over 5.45. I am pretty confused about why things should be different for Irvin.
If a pitcher goes down and you have to find someone to fill in, Irvin can do that. However, rolling into 2027 with Irvin in the starting five is just asking for trouble. Apparently, the Nats are likely to hold on to CJ Abrams, at least partially due to the fact they want to compete in 2027. Jake Irvin being in the rotation does not line up with that idea.
I really like Jake Irvin as a person, and his fastball-curveball combination can be money when he is on point. However, we have given him plenty of chances and things have not worked out. After winning 11 more games than last year, can the Lerner’s finally invest in this team and help this pitching staff.
Even if the budget is limited, I would want Paul Toboni to get creative and find different ways to fill out the rotation. Whether that is trading Dylan Crews for pitching or taking some higher risk fliers, those would be better than running it back with Irvin.
After last season, the expectations have been raised. We know this offense will at least be solid, especially with Abrams coming back. Now there needs to be some investment in the pitching staff. While player development is part of the equation, we need more talented arms to come into the fold.
I am not asking Lerner and Toboni to go out and get Tarik Skubal here. Just show the fans you are serious about winning and building a competent pitching staff. If the goal is to push for a Wild Card spot in 2027, the Nats have to aggressively look to upgrade the pitching staff with outside additions.
