Let’s set the table for a second. As of today, August 27th, 2025, our Houston Astros are currently leading the AL West by 1.5 games with a record of 72-60. In a season dominated by injuries to major players like Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Peña, Isaac Paredes, and Lance McCullers Jr., the fact that this team has not cratered as a result is an achievement in and of itself. To which, much credit is due to Manager Joe Espada and GM Dana Brown.
Objectively, this team has no business being in this position.
Because, not only have they gone through one of the worst medical gauntlets we’ve seen in recent years for the club, but they have had to contend with a historical offensive season from Mariners Catcher Cal Raleigh that has helped to keep the Mariners hotly on the Astros’ tail. For reference, here is how chaotic things have been for the season for the Astros and their playoff chances:
As it stands, the Astros and Mariners are basically neck and neck as we have reached the final season sprint of 30 games to play. In recent years, the Astros have benefitted from fellow AL West teams, like the Rangers in 2023, faltering down the stretch while they get prepared for October ball. However, this time around they may not be as fortunate. This is due to the fact that, injuries notwithstanding, the Astros have had to deal with an offense that has been a collective albatross all season long and a pitching staff that has regressed. It has led to blown games, pristine starts from Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez being wasted, and has caused somewhat of a free-fall since the end of All-Star break.
Before the break they were sitting at 56-40, having just swept the Dodgers in LA, and held a 5.0 game lead for the division. According to Brain McTaggart, they also have the second-easiest schedule remaining in MLB. Then, the proverbial “bottom fell out” stretch started to occur.
Since then, the Astros have gone 16-20, including sweeps at the hands of the Boston Red Sox and the [Redacted] A’s, as well as a grotesque spanking by the Orioles where they were outscored 23-5 and shutout in two of three(which was also their fourth in five games). And speaking of shut outs, they also were shut out for three games straight against between the Orioles and Tigers, accomplishing a dubious feat not seen since 1985, which was the last three game shutout streak for the club.
The pitching staff has fallen from a top five unit with a 3.61 ERA, to bottom seven at 4.67. The offense also has slumped from being tied for 1st in baseball with a collective .258 AVG to being almost bottom 10 with .239. With many other stats I could reference in mind, this has led to this moment in time where the Astros face the prospect of either losing the division outright or falling backwards into a playoff spot in one of the most embarrassing playoff races you’ll see this side of the 2010 NFC West.(Seahawks made the playoffs with a 7-9 record)
Fangraphs projects the Astros to finish the season with an 88-74 record, as shown here:
By the math, that would mean they would go a combined 32-34 to close the season. That’s a losing baseball team trying to hold off another in the Mariners. Now, we don’t know how much the metrics factor in players like Jake Meyers, Luis Garcia, and Isaac Paredes possibly returning. We also have to account for acquired players like Carlos Correa, Ramón Urías, and Jesús Sánchez. But, the eye test thus far suggests that the numbers may be spot on.(if not a bit generous)
Yordan returned last night to a raucous Daikin Park crowd, where he went 0-2 with two walks against Tanner Gordon and the worst team in baseball in the Colorado Rockies. However, they lost that game 6-1, and the mood around the team by the fans seems every bit of “believe it when we see it” in terms of hoping for any major turn around.
They seemingly have stunk since their final homestand prior to the ASB and it hasn’t necessarily changed since. Hopefully, something clicks and this team can muster a strong finish to the regular season and possibly gear up for a deep playoff run. Only time will tell though.
