With 18.5 percent of the season gone, the Cubs have emerged statistically as a Top 5 offense in baseball. Where they fall in that top five depends on which metrics you value most. The point is, this offense is pretty elite so far. It’s interesting, because there are still some very key bats that the Cubs haven’t gotten a ton out of. Two of those guys who haven’t been on top of their game so far both had clutch hits in the seventh inning to put this game out of reach. It was so comfortable that I was able to nap
through the late innings and didn’t have to watch the Cub bullpen after Hoby Milner work. Of course, this means that Ryan Rolison still doesn’t actually exist to me.
Pete Crow-Armstrong has been slowly turning around his slow start to the season. After the first 10 games (ending with the first game in Tampa) his OPS bottomed out at .487. With his homer and walk in this one, he’s up to .637. That the Cubs are 14-6 over that stretch is probably not coincidental. I’m just not sure which one is the chicken and which one is the egg. He’s not tearing the world up over that stretch. But he’s contributing. He’s got both his homers, his only triple and two doubles in there. Over 82 plate appearances, the pop isn’t quite there. I always love good announcer timing and hat tip to Rick Sutcliffe on the broadcast saying just before the homer that taking his walks will lead to him getting more pitches he can drive.
Rick was on fire that inning. He also went way out on a limb and said that Alex Bregman was going to come through in a clutch spot as he pinch hit right in front of PCA. Unsurprisingly, Bregman has that same break in his season line. After 10 games, he was at an OPS of .544. Now he sits at .710. Alex did have two homers before that stretch, but all three of his doubles this season and his one triple are in that stretch. Again, not setting the world on fire. But he went the other way with a ball with two outs for an RBI single that kept the line moving and set the stage for PCA’s three-run homer.
On the other side, I’ll give shout outs to Edward Cabrera looking pretty solid again, falling one out shy of a quality start. Health alone would make Hoby Milner more useful than a lot of Cubs relievers so far, but his performance has been rock solid for this team. Ryan Rolison is slowly drifting out of novelty territory and into intriguing with his early success.
All in all, a very nice road win. The Cubs have now played 12 straight games with the last five of those being on the west coast against two of the three best teams in the NL to date, and they are 9-3. The Cubs have one to go, then an off day before some home games. It won’t get a ton easier, but Fangraphs at least preliminarily gives the Cubs a slight (or better) edge in every one of those seven games on the next homestand. After the off day, the Cubs have 10 straight scheduled for a total of 23 games in 24 days. It’s going to be wild when this team reaches the end of May and the easiest teams it has faced will have been the Phillies and Mets. Changing of the guard.
Three Positives:
- PCA’s big night. A walk, a three-run homer and two runs scored.
- Seiya Suzuki had two hits and a walk. He scored a run. He remains scorching hot.
- Hoby Milner four up four down.
Game 30, April 28: Cubs 8, Padres 3 (18-12)
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Dansby Swanson (.194). 1-1, 2 RBI
- Hero: Nico Hoerner (.175). 1-5, 2 RBI
- Sidekick: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.142). 1-4, HR, BB, 3 RBI, 2 R
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Matt Shaw (-.158). 0-4
- Goat: Edward Cabrera (-.075). 5.2 IP, 25 BF, 6 H, BB, 3 ER, 7 K, HBP (W 2-0)
- Kid: Moisés Ballesteros (-.075). 0-4, BB
WPA Play of the Game: With two outs in the sixth inning, Nico Hoerner batted with runners on second and third and the game tied at two. Nico doubled, driving in two runs. (.269)
*Padres Play of the Game: Luis Campusano batted with runners on first and second and two outs and the Padres down two. He singled, driving in a run and sending the other runner to third. (.148)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 29 Winner: Moisés Ballesteros received 129 of 137 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 3/Bottom 3)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Nico Hoerner +9.5
- Michael Conforto +7
- Moisés Ballesteros +6
- Jacob Webb/Pete Crow-Armstrong -9
- Matt Shaw -10
Current Win Pace: 97.2
Up Next: At 3:10 p.m. CT, the third and final game in San Diego. Jameson Taillon (1-1, 4.55, 27.2 IP) gets his sixth start of the season. Last time out he started in Los Angeles and didn’t go so well. He allowed four runs on four hits and three walks in five innings. As is somewhat usual for a back of the rotation guy, he’s been up and down. He had a strong start, then a decent one, then a rough one, then a good one, then a rough one. So we can hope he’ll bounce back again.
29-year-old Matt Waldron (0-1, 12.46, 8.2 IP) makes his third start of the year for the Padres. Matt was an 18th round pick of the Indians in 2019 (550th overall). He allowed six runs on eight hits and three walks over five innings in his last start at Colorado. For his career, he is 8-16 with a 5.19 ERA in 38 appearances (35 starts). He’s never faced the Cubs in his career.
Hopefully the offense can keep rolling against Waldron and Taillon can keep them in the game. That just might get the Cubs one more win on this trip.
Go Cubs.
