The Portland Trail Blazers are off to a 5-5 start to their 2025-26 NBA regular season. The record is an improvement on their performances in recent years, especially when considering signature wins against the Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets as part of the package. But .500 is a waypoint on the journey to success, not a destination. The up-and-down nature of Portland’s journey has at least one fan asking if the proverbial Blazers groundhog shouldn’t see the shadow of mediocrity and burrow
back in for six more weeks (or months) of winter. That’s the subject of today’s Blazer’s Edge Mailbag.
Dave,
I’m enjoying the new Blazers as much as anybody but let’s not kid ourselves. The results are still not there. We all know mediocrity is the worst place to get stuck in the NBA. If we aren’t going to win, shouldn’t we be rooting for just one more year of tanking at least? This team still needs talent and the draft is the best place to get it right?
Walt
You might have a 50-50 argument, especially since the 2026 NBA Draft is projected to be talent-heavy, except for one factor.
Way back in 2021, the Blazers traded a first-round pick to the Chicago Bulls for forward Larry Nance, Jr. Nance has long since gone on to the New Orleans Pelicans and beyond. Because the Blazers were smart, though, they lottery-protected the pick in question. Since Portland has been in the lottery for each of the last four years, that pick still hasn’t conveyed to the Bulls.
The first time the Blazers rise past the lottery between now and 2028, Chicago will get their first-round pick. Until then, the debt is not settled.
Here’s a bit of good news. If the obligation isn’t fulfilled by 2028, the pick becomes a second-rounder, much more palatable to the Blazers.
Here’s the bad news: an icky thing can happen between now and then.
When the Blazers traded Damian Lillard to the Milwaukee Bucks in 2023, one piece of their return compensation was the right to swap picks with the Bucks in the 2027 NBA Draft. At the time, it looked like a risk. Portland was starting a deep rebuild. Milwaukee just got one of the best guards in the league to pair with MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo. Chances seemed good–or at least fair–that the Blazers would own a better pick than the Bucks in 2027 organically, making the swap rights useless. (Who would want to move down in the draft, after all?)
Things have changed in the meantime. Portland is improving. Milwaukee is still better, but they’ve cut Lillard and there’s open debate nearly every month about whether they’ll end up trading Antetokounmpo to start a rebuild of their own. If Giannis isn’t with the team in 2027, Milwaukee’s pick could be very valuable, maybe even top of the line. And the Blazers hold the rights to swap with them.
Except hold on a minute. There’s a nightmare scenario on the horizon.
Remember that pick owed to Chicago? If the Blazers don’t make the playoffs in 2026, the lottery protections on it will hold. Portland will keep their own pick and the obligation gets punted to 2027.
But 2027 is the year of the pick swap with Milwaukee.
Let’s say the Chicago trade goes unfulfilled until then.
If the Blazers failed to make the playoffs again in 2027 in this scenario, there’s no issue. The lottery protections would hold. They’d keep the pick and still have the right to swap with the Bucks if Milwaukee’s pick was higher.
If Portland got good enough to make the playoffs in 2027, though, their first-round pick would go to Chicago. And if they don’t have a first-rounder, the Blazers don’t have anything to swap with the Bucks, making the pick swap null and void. They’d watch the Bucks pick in the lottery from a position they could have been in, but for a trade for a minor-ish forward made six years earlier.
The bad outcome triggers from the Blazers falling into the draft lottery in 2026, then making the playoffs in 2027. They want to avoid this at all costs.
One way to avert the nightmare would be to negotiate with Chicago. If the Blazers miss the playoffs this year, they could say, “Hey, we’re holding a low 2026 lottery pick. By definition that would be better than any non-lottery pick you got from us in the future. Can we work out an agreement to trade this pick as compensation for the Nance deal?” That would fulfill the obligation.
But there’s a much better way than that. Just win now. If the Blazers fall outside the lottery this season and the protected pick conveys to Chicago next summer, they don’t have to worry about 2027 anymore. Holding their own pick for sure, the 2027 NBA Draft becomes a free pass for Portland. If they had the best record in the league that year and selected 30th, they wouldn’t care. They’d just trade with Milwaukee, drafting wherever the Bucks’ pick fell instead.
Summarizing: Barring an ancillary deal with the Bulls to fulfill the Bulls trade obligation, Portland’s choices look like this:
- Lose enough to get into the lottery in 2026 and then MAKE SURE you lose enough to get into the lottery in 2027 too to avoid losing your pick and voiding the pick swap
- Win as much as you can both years, knowing that the 2026 pick will fulfill the Bulls trade and the 2027 season is a free ride because of the pick swap with the Bucks in the draft
Given the choice between intentionally losing two straight years and trying to win as much as possible for two straight years, the Blazers are going with the winning route. It’s better for morale, it makes more sense, and after years of (more or less) winking at losing, it’s time.
After years of barely-conceled tanking, it must feel pretty good to say, “Win as much as you can because this year’s pick is going to Chicago anyway. Then win as much as you can again because we want to finish with a better record than Milwaukee in ‘27. All you gotta do is just win, win, win!”
For that reason alone, I don’t think you’re going to see tanking this season unless something goes seriously awry. Even mediocrity is ok in this scenario. Because of that trade obligation, a middling result would be better than making the lottery! (Unless Portland got promoted to a Top 4 pick, of course.)
Whatever dichotomy of strategy might have existed between the front office, coaches, and players in past years has now evaporated. It’s good for all of them if the Blazers succeed. Whether it ends up working or not, that’s a better approach to take to a season. I expect they’ll be holding onto it.
Thanks for the question! You all can send yours to blazersub@gmail.com and we’ll try to answer as many as possible!
