Having given up their months-long possession of a playoff spot, the New York Mets (80-76) are set to begin a three-game series against the Chicago Cubs (88-68) tonight at Wrigley Field. Neither team has
been playing particularly well lately, as the Mets are 4-6 over their last ten games, while the Cubs have gone 5-5 over their last ten.
At the beginning of September, the Mets could at least dream about catching the Cubs for the first Wild Card spot in the National League. At the time, they were nearly as close to that spot in the standings as they were to the Reds, who trailed them by four games. Now, the Mets and Reds have identical records, and the Reds have the tiebreaker, having beaten the Mets four times in six games this season. And the Diamondbacks, who would also have the tiebreaker over the Mets, are looming just one game behind.
While everyone is dreading the Mets’ final series of the year against the recently-hot Marlins, the Cubs have demonstrably been a better team than the Mets this year. Even with their uneven play lately, they’ve won twenty more games than they’ve lost thus far, something the Mets accomplished earlier this year before playing miserably for the past three months.
The Cubs rank eight in baseball with 4.81 runs scored per a game, a few spots ahead of the Mets and their average of 4.74 runs per game. But they’ve been much better at preventing runs, as Chicago has allowed 4.01 per game, which has them tied with the Cleveland Guardians for the fifth-best mark in baseball. While the Mets had excelled at run prevention early in the season, they’ve fallen to just about league average with 4.38 runs allowed per game. Between issues with many of their pitchers and some shoddy defense, the Mets have really fallen off in that regard.
Former Mets prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong had a phenomenal first half for the Cubs this year, but he, too, has fallen off quite a bit. After putting up a 131 wRC+ with 25 home runs and 27 stolen bases in the first half, Crow-Armstrong has just a 65 wRC+ with four home runs and eight stolen bases in the second half. His defense in center is still enough to carry him, and he still has 5.0 fWAR on the season.
The Cubs’ offense is now led by Kyler Tucker (139 wRC+), Michael Busch (131 wRC+), and Carson Kelly (120 wRC+), but there are solid contributors in other spots of their lineup. Seiya Suzuki (116 wRC+), Ian Happ (116 wRC+), and Nico Hoerner (110 wRC+) have all been solidly above league average, and Dansby Swanson (100 wRC+) has still been worth 3.0 fWAR despite the league average year at the plate.
We’ll get into the Cubs’ starting pitchers below, but their bullpen has a 3.80 ERA that ranks 12th in baseball this season. Like the Mets, however, their second half performance has been worse than that. Cubs relievers have a 4.24 ERA since the All-Star break, while Mets relievers have a 4.21 ERA over that stretch.
The fact that the Mets need help to make the playoffs now shouldn’t be too intimidating, as neither the Reds nor the Diamondbacks seem like to rattle off six wins over the final six days of the season. But the Mets haven’t inspired any confidence that they can win more than a couple games over the course of any individual week this season.
The best case scenario over these three nights is that the Mets sweep the Cubs while the Pirates sweep the Reds, leaving the Mets three games up with three to play when they get to Miami on Friday. But the worst case scenario in which the Reds sweep the Pirates and the Mets get swept by the Cubs would end the Mets’ season on Thursday night. At absolute minimum, the Mets have to find a way to win this series, but even winning two of three could leave them two games back with three to go—and, again, no tiebreakers in their favor.
For what it’s worth, FanGraphs’ playoff odds give the Mets a 50.1 percent chance of making the postseason this morning. On September 1, those odds gave the Mets a 94.5 percent chance.
Tuesday, September 23: David Peterson vs. Cade Horton, 7:40 PM EDT on SNY
Peterson (2025): 167.1 IP, 149 K, 63 BB, 11 HR, 3.98 ERA, 3.47 FIP, 97 ERA-
Peterson’s season serves as a microcosm of the Mets’ season, as he was clearly the team’s ace early in the year, putting up very good numbers and seeming to prove that what he did in 2024 was no fluke. But as he’s pitched more and more in the second half, upping his single-season best for innings pitched with every start, he’s really struggled. Over his last eight starts, Peterson has a brutal 7.59 ERA, even though his 3.82 FIP would suggest that he should have fared much better than that. The Mets need him to snap out of that skid immediately for a start that could end up being his last relevant appearance of the season.
Horton (2025): 115.0 IP, 95 K, 33 BB, 9 HR, 2.66 ERA, 3.53 FIP, 64 ERA-
Having recently turned 24, Horton is having a very good rookie season, and ever since he got rocked on June 27, he’s been even better than his overall stat line would suggest. Beginning with his start on July 3, Horton has a 1.29 ERA and a 2.83 FIP over the course of his last 70.0 innings.
Wednesday, September 24: TBD vs. Matthew Boyd, 8:05 PM EDT on ESPN
TBD
While the Mets haven’t publicly announced their pitchers for the second or third games of the series, Jonah Tong is the most likely pitcher to make this start per Roster Resource, and his most recent major league start went very well. Here’s hoping we see more of that from Tong if he does make this start.
Boyd (2025): 174.1 IP, 151 K, 41 BB, 18 HR, 3.20 ERA, 3.60 FIP, 77 ERA-
The 34-year-old lefty is having a very good year in his first season with the Cubs. After a rough return to the Tigers in 2023 that saw him finish with a 5.45 in fifteen major league starts, Boyd has been great for the Guardians and Cubs since the beginning of the 2024 season with a cumulative 3.11 ERA. He’s under contract with Chicago next year, too, as he signed a two-year, $29 million deal with the Cubs ahead of this season.
Thursday, September 25: TBD vs. Shota Imanaga, 7:40 PM EDT on SNY
TBD
Nolan McLean seems like the most likely pitcher to make this start, per Roster Resource, and no matter what the context of the third game is, there’s nobody you’d rather have on the mound right now than him if you’re a Mets fan.
Imanaga (2025): 139.0 IP, 114 K, 25 BB, 29 HR, 3.37 ERA, 4.78 FIP, 81 ERA-
Home runs have been a major problem for Imanaga this year, as he’s surrendered a staggering 1.9 of them per nine innings. Somehow, he’s worked around that, putting up a good ERA even with his relatively modest strikeout rate. Imanaga barely walks anybody, which means the Mets will have to slug their way to a win against him. Let’s hope they have that in them by the time this game comes around.
