Washington is 19-10-1 against the Falcons, all-time, in a rivalry that dates back to 1966. Washington has won all four matchups with Atlanta in this decade, and are hoping to make it five-in-a-row this afternoon.
History seems to be on the Commanders’ side — they have dominated the Falcons for decades aside from a 5-game losing streak from 2006 to 2018 — but the injury situation seems to favor the home team.
Washington will be without:
- QB Jayden Daniels
- WR Terry McLaurin
- WR Noah Brown
- TE John Bates
- S Percy Butler
Of course, the Commanders have already lost two starters for the season — RB Austin Ekeler and DE Deatrich Wise. They also have CB Jonathan Jones and S Will Harris on short-term IR and have been without RG Sam Cosmi since he injured his knee in the playoff win against the Lions in January.
The most significant injury for the Falcons is CB A.J. Terrell.
The Commanders come into Atlanta hot off of a dominating win against the Las Vegas Raiders in which backup QB Marcus Mariota and the Commanders running attack made Jayden Daniels’ absence seem to be of no real consequence. The Falcons, on the other hand, were shut out by division rival, the Carolina Panthers, and starting QB Michael Penix was benched in the 4th quarter for former Redskin and the NFL’s highest-paid backup, Kirk Cousins, who was tasked with handing the ball off 7 straight times on Atlanta’s final drive, possibly to avoid the possibility of the veteran leading a scoring drive that could have thrown gas on a possible QB controversy. Instead, head coach Raheem Morris threw cold water on it immediately after Sunday’s loss by proclaiming that Penix remains the Falcons’ starter.
The one aspect of the Falcons team that is crystal clear is the play of RB Bijan Robinson. He has been outstanding as both a ball carrier and receiver. He has accounted for 40% of Atlanta’s offensive yardage in the first 3 weeks of the season. Washington’s biggest challenge defensively will be to contain him — no small feat.
The Commanders enter the game with a ton of defensive metrics that indicate that Joe Whitt’s crew is doing its job the right way. For example, the Commanders defense leads the league in limiting opponents’ 3rd down conversion percentage. They are also getting pressure on the passer; per Ben Standig, Washington’s defense ranks 6th in sacks, 3rd in total pressures, and 1st(t) in total pressure rate.
The burgundy & gold defense may have an opportunity to lead Washington to a win by clamping down on an Atlanta offense that has scored only one touchdown in its past two game, and rattling a young quarterback who looked frequently confused last week against the Panthers.
Washington’s wounded offense may struggle against a solid Falcons defense that is ranked 2nd in the NFL in total yards per game surrendered, and 13th (right behind Washington) in points allowed per game.
The Commanders advantage could come down to special teams, which are at or near the top of the NFL rankings in a host of special teams metrics.
The 2-1 Commanders are looking to close out the month of September with a win that will keep them in the hunt for the NFC East division crown and among the shrinking pool of NFL teams with a winning record. The 1-2 Falcons are fighting to avoid a loss that would bury them in 3rd place in a relatively non-competitive NFC South division and possibly seeing their season begin to unravel. It feels like the keys to the game will be the Commanders ability to pressure and harass Michael Penix on defense, and to find a way to move the ball against an extremely stingy Falcons defense. More explosive plays from Washington’s special teams unit could be what’s needed to tip the balance in favor of the visitors in what shapes up to be a fight between two tough defensive teams.
First Quarter
The first possession belonged to the Falcons at the 35-yard line following the opening kickoff which went into the end zone for a touchback.
After a Bijan Robinson run and an dropped pass, it was 3rd & 5. On the 3rd down play, Penix hit a wide-open Kyle Pitts who ran the ball to the Commanders 34-yard line. Not good from the NFL’s top 3rd down defense.
A pair of Robinson runs added another first down. Two plays later, Daron Payne forced a fumble, but it went straight to Penix, who recovered for a loss of 6 yards.
On 3rd down, Lattimore stretched out for a near interception to force the 38-yard field goal attempt, which Parker Romo converted easily. Atlanta 3 – Washington 0.
Marcus Mariota led the offense out for the Commanders first offensive drive, which began at the 33-yard line after a Luke McCaffrey return.
With about 10 1/2 minutes to play in the opening period, the drive starts with a 4-yard loss when the Falcons swarm Deebo behind the line. On 2nd down, things got a bit worse with a sack of Mariota. On 3rd & 16, Mariota’s throw deep downfield hit the grass. 3 & out. Tress Way on to punt.
The Falcons took over at the 27-yard line with 9 minutes left in the 1st quarter.
Bijan Robinson got his 7th & 8th carries of the game to earn another first down — Atlanta’s 3rd. Two plays later, he ran for the team’s fourth 1st down of the game across midfield.
Penix then hit Drake London for another 1st down on a 15 yard completion against Mikey Sainristil.
Tyler Allgeier came on the field, earning 9 yards on 2 carries. On 3rd & 1 at the 25-yard line, Allgeier was stuffed for no gain.
On 4th & 1, Raheem Morris kept his offense on the field. This time Allgeier got the needed yard to earn a fresh set of downs at the 22-yard line.
The Falcons tried a gimmicky play that was read perfectly by Javontae Jean-Baptiste, and Wagner made the tackle for a loss of 7 yards. One play later, it was 3rd & 3 after another completion to London. On 3rd down, Penix hit Robinson for an easy thrown & catch on the sideline against Lattimore.
It was now 1st & goal from the 9-yard line. On 2nd down, Drake London caught a TD pass from Penix to stretch the home team’s lead to two scores. After the PAT, the score was 10-0, Atlanta in front. The drive covered 73 yards in 14 plays in 8:13.
With less than a minute left to play in the first quarter, the Washington offense needs to get on track. So far, the Falcons have out-gained the Commanders 118-6; Penix is 7-9 for 68 yards and a TD.
On the Commanders’ 2nd drive, the first running back carry of the day went to Chris Rodriguez.
On CRod’s 2nd carry of the game on 2nd & 7, he broke loose for a 49-yard run to end the quarter, setting his tam up at the Atlanta 19-yard line.
Second Quarter
Kliff Kingsbury stayed with Chris Rodriguez. After a CRod run and a Zach Ertz catch, it was 3rd & 1 at the 10-yard line. Rodriguez got stuffed for no gain.
Dan Quinn, of course, never hesitated. On 4th & 1 (almost 2), Mariota hit Deebo Samuel on a sideline pass for the 1st down at the 6-yard line.
McNichols came on the field and carried for a yard; then it was back to the passing game. Mariota hit Luke McCaffrey in the back of the end zone on a touchdown reception that looked exactly like several I’ve seen Jayden Daniels throw to Terry McLaurin! McCaffrey had his 2nd TD catch in as many weeks.
Score: 10 – 7 with 11:31 left in the half. The Washington drive covered 70 yards in 8 plays.
Kick returner Natrone Brooks was injured on his return (he left the game with a concussion and never returned). There was a penalty on the Commanders on the kickoff to force a re-kick.
Penix and the Atlanta offense took the field at the 37-yard line for their 3rd offensive drive of the game having scored on each of the first two possessions.
The Commanders blitz on 1st down resulted in a 6-yard Frankie Luvu sack of Penix.
Penix had plenty of time on 2nd down, and hit London 43-yards down field on a double move. Falcons set up at the WAS 26-yard line.
Two plays later, Penix hit Mooney for 15 yards and another 1st down. Penix looks very good.
On the next play, Bijan Robinson ran right through the middle of the Commanders defense to score another Falcons touchdown.
After the PAT, Atlanta led 17-7.
Washington’s defense simply isn’t getting the job done. The Falcons have been moving the ball at will on the ground and through the air.
Luke McCaffrey broke a huge 58-yard kick return across midfield to the Falcons 41-yard line.
For the 2nd week in a row, Mariota and his offense have great field position after a great return. The offense needs to score a touchdown here.
A pass to Jaylin Lane on 1st down was followed by a run by Bill Croskey-Merritt to earn a 1st down at the 29-yard line.
A penalty for intentional grounding pushed the ball back 10 yards — 2nd & 20. On the subsequent play, Mariota scrambled; hit Deebo for a completion. Deebo fumbled, but then recovered the ball himself.
On 3rd & 17, Deebo had an 11-yard catch & run. Matt Gay came on the field for a 43-yard field goal attempt that split the uprights. New score: 17-10, Atlanta in the lead.
The Falcons offense returns to the field at the 33-yard line with about 5 1/2 minutes left before halftime. It’s time for Washington’s defense to force a stop.
Tyler Allgeier was stuffed for a loss by Javon Kinlaw, but on 2nd down, Drake London had another catch near the line to gain, earning a 1st down. Allgeier lost 2 (again) on 1st down with the clock ticking down towards 3 minutes. Penix hit Mooney waaay downfield, but the receiver bobbled it and went out of bounds. A defensive holding call against Trey Amos on the play gave Atlanta a fresh set of downs a their own 45 yard line.
Penix went deep again, but couldn’t complete the pass against tight coverage by Lattimore. London, however, took an underneath pass to the 46-yard line, where Eddie Goldman stopped Bijan Robinson cold on 3rd & 1 as the officials gave the 2-minute warning.
Following the time out, on 4th & 2, Atlanta’s offense lined up but took the delay of game penalty before punting.
Mariota would have the opportunity to tie the game by halftime, and Washington’s offense will get the ball to start the 2nd half.
Jaylin Lane muffed the punt, but fell on it. Washington’s drive would start at the 8-yard line with 01:51 on the clock.
Mariota completed passes to Ertz and Lane before nearly throwing an interception with about 01:20 to play.
McNichols carried the ball for minimal yardage and the clock kept ticking under 60 seconds. On 3rd & 8, Mariota was sacked inside the Washington 30-yard line to force the punt with 35 ticks on the clock.
After the punt, Atlanta had the ball with 22 seconds on the clock at their own 25-yard line. They couldn’t move the ball, and the half ended with the Falcons punting the ball away on 4th & 7 with 00:07 on the clock. Lane didn’t handle the punt cleanly and took a huge hit, but the Commanders did not lose possession of the ball as halftime arrived.
Halftime Stats
Statistics via ESPN
Third Quarter
The Commanders defense stopped Atlanta twice in the closing minutes of the first half; now, the Washington offense will open the second half with the ball at the 30-yard line, hoping to tie the game. Another Falcons player —- Xavier Watts — was shaken up on the kickoff return.
The Commanders attempted only 8 running plays, gaining 58 rushing yards in the first half. Perhaps the number of attempts can change with the team facing a deficit of just 7 points with the ball in hand.
Bill Merritt opened the half with a 16-yard run on a toss play. Mariota hit Jaylin Lane on the sideline for 31 yards, but a holding penalty on Ben Sinnott erased the play. It was now 1st & 20 at the WAS 35-yard line. Offensive pass interference against McCaffery made it 1st & 30. Goiong backwards is not good.
M1st & 30 – 16-yard completion to McCaffrey in the middle of the field
2nd & 14 – Incomplete pass as Mariota barely escapes a sack by Kaden Elliss
3rd & 14 – Mariota scrambles for 22 yards and a 1st down
Two plays later, on 3rd & 2, Ertz was flagged for a bad false start penalty to bring up 3rd & 7 at the ATL 34-yard line. On 3rd down, Mariota was unable to complete the pass to Chris Moore.
Matt Gay nailed the 52-yard field goal to make the score 17-13.
The drive covered 37 yards in 8 plays with, I believe, 4 penalties against Washington’s offense.
Atlanta began their first possession of the second half at the 24-yard line leading by 4 points.
The first play was spectacular for the Falcons. Penix hit Bijan Robinson out of the backfield for 69 yards. Only a huge amount of hustle by safety Jeremy Reaves saved the touchdown.
Kyle Pitts scored a touchdown on the second play of the drive with Darnell Savage in coverage.
With 9 1/2 minutes left in the second quarter, the Falcons led 24-13. The Commanders need to change the direction of this game in the remaining 24 (or so) minutes.
This key offensive drive for the Commanders opened with Deebo following Ben Sinnott around the end for 5 yards; on 2nd down, Samuel caught a pass for 14 yards to set the offense up with a fresh set of downs near midfield.
Rodriguez was next runner up with a 6-yard gain followed by an 8-yard Deebo run.
Mariota was intercepted in the end zone on the next play trying to hit Jaylin Lane on a 40-yard pass. Xavier Watts came down with the INT. This was a devastating turn of events on a drive that was going pretty well prior to the deep shot.
Starting from their own 20, the Falcons moved the ball to the 38-yard line before Mikey Sainristil came up with Washington’s first turnover of the season with an interception!
Starting at the ATL 25-yard line, the offense now has a chance to make a game-changing score. It doesn’t really happen, though. Washington can’t move the ball, and Matt Gay comes out for his 3rd field goal attempt of the day. The 41-yard attempt slipped inside the left upright to make the score 24-16 with about 4 1/2 minutes left in the 3rd quarter. The scoring drive covered 2 yards in 4 plays.
Good kick coverage gave Atlanta the ball near the 28-yard line on a ST tackle by rookie Ale Kaho.
Penix continues to play well. Under heavy pressure, he hit Casey Washington for a 19-yard gain.
Two plays later, on 3rd & 2, he completed a 16-yard pass.
On 1st down from the 15-yard line, Tyler Algeier made it to the end zone to open the lead up to 31-16 as the game starts to feel like it’s getting out of hand.
After the kickoff return (holding call on Ben Sinnott) the Commanders got the ball at the 24-yard line with 6 second left in the quarter.
Fourth Quarter
There seems little reason for optimism as the Commanders take the field to open the final stanza of the game. Trailing by two scores, they’ve appeared outmatched for most of the game.
For a moment, it looked like Chris Moore had a long reception, but the Falcons DB punched the ball out; a flag for defensive holding on 2nd down gave Mariota a fresh set of downs to work with.
Tay Martin caught a 14-yard pass on 2nd & 12 to get the ball across midfield, and then Chris Moore added another 9 yards on the next play.
Bill Merritt earned the first down with a good run, then, bulled for another 9 yards on the next 2 plays.
On 3rd & 1, Chris Rodriguez lost 2 yards.
On 4th & 3, Mariota hit Deebo in the back corner of the end zone on a fade for the essential touchdown!
On the subsequent 2-point play Mariota made a great play, hitting Zach Ertz in the end zone to close the deficit to 7 points.
The score is now 31-24 with the Falcons in the lead with 8:48 to play.
Atlanta started their next drive at their own 24-yard line. The Commanders defense must get a stop here!
Two plays later, the Falcons faced 3rd & 4; Penix scrambled and reached the line to gain for a crucial first down.
Two more plays and it was 3rd & 6 at the 37-yard line. Penix hit Kyle Pitts for a first down with a DPI penalty declined. Atlanta had the ball at the Washington 40, approaching field goal range with 4 1/2 minutes.
Tyler Allgeier was stuffed to bring up 3rd & 7; Drake London made a wonderful catch on an out route for 9 yards and it began to feel like the score and clock were unbeatable.
Allgeier added another 19 yards on the ground. The Commanders will need to force a turnover if they hope to find a way to win this game.
Instead, after a 3rd down stop as the 2-minute warning arrived, the Falcons kicked a field goal to open up a 10-point lead with just 01:57 left in the game. The scoring drive to ice the game covered 69 yards in 14 plays and burned nearly 7 minutes of game clock. Score: 34-24.
Things looked grim for the good guys.
A DPI penalty against the DB covering Deebo Samuel gave the Commanders a huge gain to the ATL 40-yard line.
When they got to the 25-yard line, Dan Quinn sent Gay out for a 42-yard field goal attempt to cut the lead to 7 points.
The Commanders will need to recover the onside kick in a last-gasp attempt to steal victory from the jaws of defeat. Atlanta recovered the kick, and the game was over except for Penix kneeling out the final 86 seconds.
Full Game Stats
Statistics via ESPN
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