“Anything less than a conference championship would be a disappointment”
On Monday I had the chance to sit down with Boise State beat writer Nathan Carroll of Bronco Nation News to discuss Boise State’s first season in the new-look Pac-12. Nathan is from the Spokane area and grew up attending WSU games before attending Boise State in the early 2010s, so he provided a unique and balanced perspective on the Broncos joining the Pac-12.
Boise State sought a bid to the old Pac-12 for many, many years, and
frankly, their ambition and remarkable trajectory this century command a ton of respect. From a Washington State perspective, what Boise State and Gonzaga have been able to accomplish in the Inland Northwest, respectively, should be a cause for optimism. Of course, there are unique circumstances that separate WSU from the success those programs have seen, but they provide a roadmap. Now, with Boise State and Gonzaga in the same conference, they will be viewed as the standard bearers.
Boise State has been the preseason favorite to win its conference title or division for 17 consecutive seasons, an unbelievable statistic. This year is no different, with Boise State receiving 14 of the first-place votes in the media’s preseason Pac-12 poll. To be fair, only three of the participating writers came from the former Pac-12, including WSU representatives Jamey Vinnick and Greg Woods, so the voters naturally skew toward the Mountain West. However, the perception nationally is that Boise State is the team to beat not only this year, but in the years to follow.
Whether WSU likes it or not, Boise State is the flagship program in this new conference. The Cougs should aspire to be the conference’s top program, and they have every reason to believe they can compete with Boise State this season. But dethroning the Broncos will be a tall order.
How Good Were the Broncos Last Season?
Boise State is coming off a “disappointing” 9-5 campaign in its final season in the Mountain West, despite winning the conference title game. Long-time starting quarterback Maddux Madsen got hurt early in a game against rival Fresno State, leading to a 30-7 demolition on the Blue, and then a 17-7 smothering by San Diego State the following week, burying Boise State’s chances at the Group of Five College Football Playoff bid.
Fresno State and SDSU are two of the Pac-12’s favorites this season, just behind the Broncos, so it is no guarantee that BSU would have won either or both of those games with Madsen at the helm. However, Madsen’s record against non-Power Four opponents speaks for itself. He is 19-1 since becoming the full-time starter in 2024 against those opponents, and yes, that includes going 7-1 without Ashton Jeanty last season.
Why Boise State Believes
Why wouldn’t they?
Boise State simply has been the best program outside the traditional powerhouses at identifying talent, playing smart, and developing players year after year. Athletic Director Jeramiah Dickey and head coach Spencer Danielson are committed to making BSU a powerhouse on and off the field (though we’ll see how long they can hold off the Power Four from poaching them). But on the field, this team is going to be stout.
While they lose all four of their top receivers, they believe it could actually be addition by subtraction. Their receiving corps ranked second in the nation in drops last year. They bring back sure-handed Matt Wagner, who has played in 27 games for the Broncos and is an NFL-level athlete. Boise State will also boast one of the better running back rooms in the Group of Five, returning junior Dylan Riley and sophomore Sire Gaines, who combined for 1,977 yards last season.
On the defensive side, Boise State will be led by its defensive line, the hallmark of any strong defense. The unit will be headlined by Jayden Virgin-Morgan, who was picked to win Defensive Player of the Year in the aforementioned preseason poll after leading the team with 13 tackles for loss and six sacks in 2025. While BSU is replacing a lot of talent on the backend, it brings in Notre Dame transfer Jaden Mickey to bolster the secondary. If the linebacking corps can produce, this could be one of the conference’s best defenses.
The Biggest Question Mark
“What about Maddux Madsen?”
That is the question in Boise and around the Pac-12, and it’s the question keeping Boise State from being a Top 25 team in my mind. Madsen is 1-4 against Power Four opponents (I’m counting his win over WSU in 2024).
As Nathan put it, there is no bigger gap in college football than Madsen’s performances against non-Power teams compared to Power Four teams.
In a conference that poses a lot of questions at quarterback, it is fitting that the conference’s prohibitive favorite has a major question mark at the premier position. And while they bring in a lot of talent at receiver, those players ultimately remain unproven.
There is no question that their defense will be very strong, but will they be strong enough? Strong enough to carry a mediocre offense? Or will the offense relieve enough pressure from the defense to allow them to be elite on both sides of the ball? That will be the difference between a “disappointing” eight- or nine-win season and a berth in the College Football Playoff.
Can Washington State Dethrone the Favorites?
In short, yes.
WSU is firmly in the second group of favorites behind BSU. Fresno State and SDSU return strong defenses and will play run-heavy offenses, not unlike Boise, but with less talent and far more uncertainty at quarterback. In fact, from what we saw from SDSU’s quarterback play in Pullman last season, the known might be just as bad as the unknown.
Texas State poses the ultimate wild card, with the conference’s only sure-thing star quarterback, but without the defense to back him up… a concept with which I’m sure we are all familiar.
Out of the four teams in the second grouping, WSU has by far the highest upside in my opinion. WSU should be better than Fresno State and SDSU on offense, and could get close to them on defense if everything comes together. Compared to Texas State, WSU should be the more complete team, while maybe not being quite as explosive on offense.
What WSU doesn’t have compared to the other contenders is continuity.
Could Pinnick be the conference’s second-best quarterback behind Texas State’s Brad Jackson? Absolutely. But he could also struggle to adjust to the speed of the game and the increase in competition.
Could Trent Bray’s defense be the second-best defense, ahead of Fresno State and San Diego State? Yes. But there are just too many unknowns and too many things that need to be seen.
It is a lot of ifs, buts, and maybes, but WSU could profile as the clear second-place team because, if they hit on their transfers and player development, they will be more well-balanced than the other top contenders. Ultimately, the voters didn’t take that bet, but it isn’t an illogical one.
But the question remains: Will they be able to beat Boise State?
Luckily, they get the conference favorites at home in Pullman, which is a big arrow in their quiver. Boise State is probably the better team, but not by a large margin. The Cougs won’t be favored, but they have every right to believe they can knock off the Broncos.
Looking Ahead
As a Legacy member, and with significant upside this season, WSU must carry the flag for the old Pac-12 and compete for a conference title.
For my money, the key matchup of the conference season will be Boise State traveling to Pullman on October 24. If the rest of the conference takes shape the way we think it will, that game could prove pivotal in the conference title race.
Regardless, having this kind of regional rivalry and, in Boise State, a contemporary measuring stick, is exactly why this new Pac-12 is where WSU wants to be.
