I’m writing this from Kiawah Island, SC, where the heat index is an absurd triple-digit number like 113 or something. The Braves finished up a heat dome-esque homestand at 3-3 on Sunday, and now they’ll head to the relatively tolerable temperatures of the North Star state to kick off a wild four-city road trip that involves a makeup game on Chicago’s South Side, and a Sunday visit to Williamsport, PA.
But, before all that, it’s three with the Twins. As the Phillies played the Minnesota crew over the weekend,
I found myself thinking, “Hey, have the Braves played the Twins yet?” Turns out the answer is, “No, they’re playing them next.” How are the Twins doing? It’s been another uneven season so far, with continuing tension amid the preferred paths forward of the Front Office and ownership. The Twins last made the playoffs in 2023; they won 82 games in 2024 and 70 last year. This year, they’re 60-65, but that means they’re just 1.5 games out of a Wild Card spot because the AL vis-a-vis the current playoff system is a farce. The Twins went on a heater with a 15-9 July, actually crawling above .500 on the month’s final day… before smashing right back to earth with a 4-10 August that was already problematic before the Phillies swept ‘em over the weekend.
Still, the Twins are in it. They’re actually a top-ten team by wRC+, though that’s the result of a top-ten xwOBA overperformance (they’re bottom ten by xwOBA). Where they’ve had issues is run prevention, as both their defense and pitching rank pretty poorly. Some guys (Joe Ryan, Andrew Morris) are having nice pitching seasons, but there’s not too much to talk about otherwise, so this will be a bit of a test on whether the Braves can actually outshoot the Twins.
For the opener, the Braves will throw out Martin Perez, who spent a season in the Twin Cities back in 2019. Also, insert my lamentation about how I cover nearly every Perez start and little else here. I’m shaking my fist at the universe, you just can’t see it. On the season, Perez’ line is 71/102/100 (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-). The Braves have gotten what they paid for and much more, even if the end result is more generic than exciting. Perhaps emblematic of his season, Perez is riding a three-start scoreless streak, even though his line during the streak is 0/69/94 with an 11/6 K/BB ratio in 16 innings. His most recent start against the Mets was one of his most Houdini-esque, with a 2/3 K/BB ratio but zero runs charged. Once aspect of his scoreless streak that deviates from his earlier performance is a sky-high grounder rate. Two of his top four starts by grounder rate have come in these most recent three outings.
The Twins will counter with Bailey Ober, who has a very consistent, below league average-y line through 18 starts and 99 innings so far: 111/115/118, with an xERA right in that range as well. Like most of his teammates, Ober pitched considerably better in July, but has hit the skids in August. He was blasted by the Orioles in his most recent outing, and had a bizarre six-inning outing with zero walks or strikeouts the turn before that. He has a 137/125/133 line over his last four outings. Ober was an above-average starter until his velocity seriously dipped in 2025, and it’s collapsed further this year. If the Braves are going to stay frosty offensively, he’s a good guy to start the road trip against.
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Monday, August 17, 7:40 p.m. EDT
Location: Target Field, Minneapolis, MN
TV/Streaming: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos
