On Monday night, the Kansas City Chiefs face the Washingtgon Commanders . We welcome Andre York of Hogs Haven — our sister SB Nation site covering the Commanders— for Five Questions with the Enemy.
1. At 3-4, the Commanders are within striking distance of the NFC East lead. How good is their chance to win the division?
If I had
to put odds to it, I’d say it’s a 10% chance to win the division. This is a very flawed team at the moment, with a somewhat weak roster to begin with due to four years of terrible drafts under Ron Rivera. Now that roster is now getting hollowed out with injuries. Last year, Jayden Daniels hid a lot of those flaws, but this year even he’s been injured and unable to work the same magic. In addition, the defense has looked out of sorts and poorly coached.
In addition to the problems the Commanders are working through, the rest of the division looks fiesty. The Eagles are diminished from last year’s Super Bowl team, having lost important players (and their offensive coordinator) in the offseason and suffering injuries across their offensive line — but they are still the most talented team in the division. The Cowboys have the best offense in the NFL right now and could be contenders if they could just fix their defense. (This may not be as difficult as it seems, since a lot of their problems are caused by Eberflus trying to force a scheme that doesn’t match his personnel). Even the last-place Giants look frisky with the emergence of Jaxson Dart.
2. Coming into 2025, many viewed Washington as a potential postseason team. With the injuries they’ve faced, do you think they have a legitimate shot to make the playoffs?
I’d say the Commanders have a 20% or so chance to get a wild card berth, so maybe a 30% overall chance to make the playoffs. Again, the biggest problem right now is that general manager Adam Peters has only had two offseasons to fix many years of poor personnel decisions. Remember: this team is only 2 years away from being the second-worst team in the NFL.
One of the underappreciated secrets to the Commanders making the playoffs last year was that they had very good injury luck. They basically lost one important starter to IR (Jonathan Allen) over the course of the season. The opposite has been true this season. The team doesn’t have enough talent to stay competitive with this many injuries — though at least WRs Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel should be returning this week. Also, the Commanders’ defense has looked worse than the sum of its parts, but that could get turned around with some combination of better coaching and personnel moves.
3. With Jayden Daniels ruled out for Monday night, how much will the offense need to adjust for Marcus Mariota? And is this a must-win game for the Commanders?
The offense won’t need to adjust at all. The Commanders have made Mariota one of the highest-paid backup quarterbacks at $8 million per year because they consider him to be one of the best backups available — and so far, he has looked good whenever coming in to replace Daniels. He also has a very similar playing style to Daniels, with good ability to progress through reads, good accuracy at various levels of the field and athleticism to threaten as a runner — all of which makes him an excellent fit for Kliff Kingsbury’s offense.
In his two starts earlier this season, he led the Commanders to a 41-24 win over the Raiders and managed to score 27 points on a stingy Falcons defense (the most scored by an opposing offense on the Falcons this season). The main difference between Mariota and Daniels is that Mariota can execute the full offense and get whatever plays are created by the offensive scheme/playcall, whereas Daniels has the additional ability to extend plays and operate outside of structure to get first downs even when the scheme/playcall didn’t get anyone open.
In a certain sense, every game is “must win” for a team like the Commanders that has playoff aspirations and a losing record. However, I wouldn’t really consider it “must win” given that the Chiefs play in a different conference (so a loss has less playoff weight), are probably the toughest opponent the Commanders will face this season and the Commanders should be getting Daniels back soon.
4. Outside of Mariota, which player needs to have a breakout performance for Washington to come away with a win?
If I could dilute a single “breakout” performance into multiple “competent” performances, I’d do that to get the Commanders’ entire defense to have a competent performance. However, if I had to choose one player to break out, I suppose I’d choose safety Quan Martin. He’s played well in the past, but his play this year has been marred with missed tackles and coverage busts. Also, he’s often the last line of defense against explosive plays and the Chiefs have been big on explosive plays this season. I’d love to have some sense of security that Quan could defend against explosives and maybe convert a few into turnovers.
5. If you could add any player from the Chiefs (not named Patrick Mahomes) to the Commanders, who would it be — and why?
The Commanders greatest need is at EDGE, having lost four of their DEs to season-ending injury (including breakout player Dorance Armstrong, who was averaging a sack per game). Therefore, I’d be tempted by George Karlaftis who could immediately turn a weakness into a strength — and is still young enough to spend many years here. However, I think I’d go with Trent McDuffie as a bit of a better talent who would add both speed and youth to our cornerback group — and potentially replace the aging Marshon Lattimore, allowing our corners to play more man coverage. That’s obviously what the coaching staff would prefer.
Be sure to check out the answers I gave to their questions by clicking here.
