Well, it’s time to get to the brass tacks of what the Hokies can expect for the ACC Season. There are 8 more games in the schedule, and all are ACC contests. There are lots of caveats for this one, but the biggest is the near-term future condition of the program as the 30-day transfer portal window closes. Just to be clear, a Head Coach is a major part of the recruiting and retention of both staff and players. The NCAA provides for a 30-day period for players who are dissatisfied with the situation
or doubt their future in any new situation to apply to transfer to other programs.
The issue with the portal is pretty obvious. If a player puts his name on the 30-day transfer list, he’s not going to want to play football and risk injury, minor or major. Now, what is not clear is the NIL impact of the transfer, and that’s something to research later. It also probably needs to have smarter rules applied to those contracts, as well. What is obvious, though is that the longer the period between the start of the season and the dismissal of the coach the longer the players that would consider bolting are playing instead of sitting the semester out.
That didn’t happen in the case of the Hokies. Brent Pry was dismissed just after the 3rd game of the season, leaving the remnant staff to manage a football team for three-quarters of a season. That’s a tall order for anyone, and many knowledgeable pro-Hokie analysts are still wincing at the prospect of the end of the thirty-day period. To date, only one player has placed his name in the portal and claimed a redshirt so that he doesn’t play the remainder of the season. True Junior Dante Lovett has decided to end his tenure at Tech. He has reportedly been fished by several programs of note and has two years of eligibility left because he took a redshirt for the season. So far, no one else has hit the portal. Brent Pry was fired on September 14th, presumably the door slams 30 days after the announcement which makes Columbus Day weekend a real nail biter for the coaching staff.
Well, all of that drama and potential future drama is going to have an impact, and none of it is particularly good. Except for something that several folks have noticed. After the Wofford game, it was obvious that the team was looser and a bit more upbeat.
The Tuesday afternoon presser sounded realistic and positive with Interim Head Coach Philip Montgomery handling things relative ease and candor.
The player interviews were interesting but the observation that Benji Gosnell, a team captain, seemed to give some hope to those who think that all is completely lost. It was almost as if some hatch had opened on the stuffy submarine that the program had become. All of the assistant coaches are still in place, and Philip Montgomery is a qualified head coach to lead the team for the next 8 games. If the team signs on, there are some miracles that could occur. It remains to be seen, because “team” people are going to put the best face on things, but the Hokies still have a modest chance to salvage a few wins, and maybe a couple of surprises out of this one.
Tech’s relative risk to other teams does drop from Moderate-Low to Low for now, but if they can get something going and play for pride and self-respect (along with helping their assistants find work in the future) the team isn’t any different physically than it was on August 31st.
Dealing with the Risks in the Schedule
Let’s Look at Games 4-8 for This One
Nobody is fooling anybody at this juncture. Like we said above, the Hokies’ Risk to their opponents has dropped down a level. It wasn’t particularly high to begin with, but this team needs to prove to itself that it can get up off the floor and play to its full capabilities. That would, at least, put the Risk to Opponent evaluation back up a bit. Right now, as an average, the Hokies present a Low risk to their opponents until they prove otherwise.
NC State Wolfpack – 7:00 PM Kickoff in Raleigh on Saturday September 27th.
The Hokies keep running into “the most important” labels for these games, but this game was always one of the top matchups in the Hokies’ peer program group. NC State has completely flip-flopped Tech’s record. They do have an ACC loss to Duke, but their ACC season started off early, and they defeated UVA and Wake Forest. Both of those contests were high scoring fist fights with little space between the teams in the end. Their loss to Duke also looked like a Big XII “no defense here” game. How the Hokies attack that situation, with the Wolfpack struggling on defense, but howling on offense is going to be a determiner of the remainder of the season against peer programs in the conference.
The Hokies have an actual chance to win this one but given the almost blank slate for them going in, it could be a blowout that the offense just doesn’t generate enough momentum to keep pace with the NC State offense. That would leave the Tech defense (already struggling) on the field for way too long and leaving the Wolfpack to blow out the Hokies. Tech is currently a 10.5 point underdog as the Wednesday odds come out and the O/U is a hefty 56.5.
Wake Forest – 1:00 PM Kickoff in Lane Stadium on Saturday October 4th
Wake has played only 3 games so far, and their two wins were against FCS teams. Their loss came courtesy of the above-mentioned Wolfpack. Their program is struggling along the bottom of the ACC barrel along with Tech, so this one is the first and only legitimate game where, if Tech plays well on the 27th, might net them a skosh of a home field advantage and a chance for the Hokies to pick up a 2nd win. We won’t speculate too far, but a healthy Tech team taking the field on the first weekend of October might actually do some magic for a change. This team could use some.
Georgia Tech – TBD at Bobby Dodd in Atlanta on Saturday October 11th
Don’t ring any bells for this one. Survival might be the biggest part of the game. If Georgia Tech still has Haynes King at quarterback, the team looks nearly unbeatable. At this writing, the Yellow Jackets are 4-0 with an ACC win in over Clemson the books. They are legitimate contenders for the ACC Championship, and a premium bowl bid if not an outside shot at playoff bid. There are some real possible “Ifs” for the future of this one. The Jackets need King to stay healthy or they become average. Virginia Tech needs to have some sort of pride revival and the defensive line needs to turn King’s time in the backfield into a nightmare. But for now, there just isn’t anyway anyone but the most Pollyanna of Hokie fans can claim a legitimate shot at a win for this one.
California – TBD at Lane Stadium on Saturday October 24th
The Golden Bears are more the Brass Bears at this point. If they do anything particularly positive, they might be a threat, but they remain an underdog coming into Lane. IF! There’s always that IF the Hokies pull up enough pride and umph to get some momentum going in both offensive and defensive units. There is an argument to be made that the Hokies could finish this 4-game period at 3-1. This is probably in the range of 40 to 35% but still NC State isn’t all that good, and both Wake and Cal are very beatable peer programs. Even a 2-2 split would be a measure of good will for future contracts and a better baseline for the next coaching staff. The Hokies will still probably win this game and might be the last game they win for the season at home.
The Final Third We’ll Leave Up to the Chart
The last four games look like a blank roadmap though a minefield, and that includes the UVA final on Thanksgiving weekend in Hooville. That game will come down to whether or not the wheels have come off the Wahoos’ wagon, and what shape the remnant Hokies are in. A 4-7 Hokie team might salvage a 5-7 record out of an 0-3 disaster. The operative is that the first three opponents in this last four games are legitimate contenders for the ACC Championship share, and a chance at a premium bowl or FBS playoff bid. Florida State wasn’t going to stink for long, and Miami is currently mining gold from the transfer portal with big NIL payouts and has gotten to AP#2 as the 5th game starts.
Currently the Hokies have a floor of 3-9 and a realistic ceiling of 5-7.
For now, the reality is that unless some sort of blind miracle occurs, the Hokies will be home for Christmas and New Years.
