This weekend (Sat., Aug. 23, 2025), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) ventures forth to Shanghai Indoor Stadium in Shanghai, China for UFC Shanghai. Set those alarm clocks fight fans! We actually have some banger fights waiting for those willing to tune in at unusual hours. It’s a mildly funny case of the co-main event (Aljamain Sterling vs. Brian Ortega) being way better than the main event bout (Zhang Minyang vs. Johnny Walker), but I can respect giving the home country athlete top billing.
As one would expect, there’s a lot of Asian talent throughout the card, and perhaps we’ll see the debut of the next Zhang Weili or Song Yadong.
Let’s dig into the analysis and predictions of the three main card fights leading up to the co-main event:
Heavyweight: Sergei Pavlovich (-245) vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (+200)
Best Win for Pavlovich? Curtis Blaydes For Cortes-Acosta? Serghei Spivac
Current Streak: Pavlovich rebounded in his last bout, whereas Cortes-Acosta has won five straight
X-Factor: Pavlovich hits like a truck
How these two match up: This could be a great fight/quick finish or an absolute stinker. Let’s all join hands and pray for the latter …
It was less than two years ago that Pavlovich was fighting for interim gold and just cracked Tom Aspinall upside the head with a heavy right hand. A minute later, he was out cold! Such is the nature of being a gigantic hitter at Heavyweight. The Russian pugilist allegedly has a background in Greco-Roman wrestling as well, but you would never know it from his actual UFC fights.
Cortes-Acosta is the kind of Heavyweight UFC actively tries not to promote. He’s a solid boxer who can actually crack with decent power, but he’s also more than content to jab his way to a decision. He has decent cardio for the division and can wrestle reasonably well for a big man.
In these modern, barren days of Heavyweight competition, that’s enough for a No. 6 ranking!
This feels like a stylistic layup for Pavlovich. To win, Cortes-Acosta has to somehow jab up Pavlovich and avoid his clubbing power despite a six-inch reach disadvantage. It’s one thing for tall-ass Alexander Volkov to stick-and-move Pavlovich — Volkov also had the advantage of prior training experience with Pavlovich! — but Cortes-Acosta is going to have a miserable time trying to land shots without getting obliterated.
Even if Pavlovich remains in the new measured state he debuted vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik, he should be able to the control the exchanges without major issue.
Prediction: Pavlovich via knockout
Flyweight: Sumudaerji (-162) vs. Kevin Borjas (+136)
Best Win for Sumudaerji? Mitch Raposo For Borjas? Ronaldo Rodriguez
Current Streak: Both men won their last bout
X-Factor: Sumudaerji has a significant edge in height and reach
How these two match up: This should be quite a fun contest of Flyweight up-and-comers.
Sumudaerji won three straight early in his UFC career, scoring a ranking quickly on the strength of his powerful stand up striking. As it turned out, his ground game wasn’t quite ready for the likes of Tim Elliott or Matt Schnell, but the better part of a year off allowed him to improve his defense significantly. Borjas, age 27, should bring the fight to Sumudaerji. He’s a boxer more than anything else, an aggressive slugger who likes to whip hooks and rip the body. How own takedown defense and grappling are still a work in progress, so it generally feels like these two will be content to stand and bang.
In that case, I favor the accurate and rangy work of Sumudaerji. In this open stance match up, Sumudaerji should find good success in lining up his left hand to land hard counter shots. In addition, he has a better jab than the average Southpaw, which should help interrupt Borjas’ combinations and raise his head for the cross to land. Borjas will likely try to overwhelm “The Tibetan Eagle” with volume, but that’s not an easy game to play when Sumudaerji is firing heat in return.
Prediction: Sumudaerji via decision
Welterweight: Taiyilake Nueraji (-360) vs. Kiefer Crosbie (+285)
Best Win for Nueraji? Han Seul Kim For Crosbie? Alex Oliveira
Current Streak: Nueraji debuts having won five straight, whereas Crosbie is 0-2 inside the Octagon
X-Factor: There’s a lot of pressure on Neuraji making his UFC debut in front of his home country as a big favorite
How these two match up: Yeah, it’s real clear what the UFC wants to happen here.
Nueraji enters the Octagon with an 11-1 professional record and one victory on the Road To UFC competition. “The Super Saiyan” is an all-action finisher who’s stopped 10 foes via knockout, and many of those victories came in the first frame. He’s huge for the division and very aggressive, as one would expect of an up-and-coming young finisher.
Crosbie, conversely, hasn’t looked great since joining the UFC roster. The Irish slugger is a decent-enough striker, but he’s really struggled with the grappling of his Octagon opponents. Perhaps against a fellow stand up fighter, Crosbie will be able to show off more of his skills?
Probably not. Nueraji’s extreme aggression could backfire, but he’s been steamrolling opposition of a similar level to Crosbie on the regional scene. Crosbie’s only shot in any UFC fight is a firefight, but he’s going to win a slugfest against a bigger, younger, better finisher?
Not likely.
Prediction: Nueraji via knockout
‘X-Factor’ Picks for 2025: 39-23
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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Shanghai fight card, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 3 a.m. ET, before the main card start time at 6 a.m. ET (also on ESPN+).
To checkout the latest and greatest UFC Shanghai: “Walker vs. Mingyang” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.
