Over the weekend, I wrote about how Myles Garrett publicly announced he has his sights set on Bruce Smith’s all-time sack record of 200.
That got me thinking… can Josh Allen eventually hold the NFL’s all-time total touchdown record?
Tom Brady is NFL’s all-time leader in passing touchdowns at 649. That is a whopping 78 ahead of Drew Brees, who sits at No. 2.
Because quarterbacks weren’t traditionally major running threats, the all-time touchdown leader (passing + throwing)” record at the position isn’t
currently as revered as the passing touchdown record.
But given the massive wave of mobile quarterbacks that has hit the league over the past decade, I’m going to venture a guess the total touchdown record will eventually (see: soon) gain traction as one of the NFL’s most hallowed records.
As you can probably imagine, Brady is also the NFL’s leader in all-time total touchdowns. He retired with 677 of them (649 passing + 28 rushing) during the regular season.
Before the 2026 season, Josh Allen has scored 301 total touchdowns in the regular season (220 passing + 79 rushing + 2 receiving).
Let’s break down what Allen will have to do in the touchdown department to break Brady’s record of 677.
Allen will need 377 more touchdowns (in the regular season) to own the all-time total touchdowns record.
- He currently averages a seismic 2.35 touchdowns per game (which by the way, is the highest average in NFL history… Brady’s career average was 2.02)
Let’s assume Allen can stay very close to that figure over the next five seasons and continues his ironman streak of starting games. At that stage — so through the 2030 season — Allen would be at 501 total touchdowns.
17 games x 5 years = 85 games
85 games x 2.35 TDs per game = 199.75 TDs
301 + 200 = 501 total TDs
Entering the 2031 season, Allen will be 35 years old.
From Brady’s Age 35 season until he retired at 45 years old, he threw — ready for this? — 349 touchdowns in the regular season. He also ran for 18 scores. Insane.
(yes, Allen breaking this record will be more about longevity than anything else.)
In this hypothetical, Allen is 35 years old and 176 touchdowns away from breaking Brady’s record.
Here are the per-season touchdown averages Allen would need from his Age 35 season onward to get to 678 total touchdowns:
Through Age 38 season (four seasons after his Age 35 season): 44
Age 39 (2035 season): 35.2
Age 40: 29.3
Age 41: 25.1
Right now, Allen averages 39 touchdowns (29 passing + 10 rushing) across a 17-game schedule. He may be afforded the benefit of an extra regular season game if the NFL owners and NFLPA agree to an 18-game season in the not-too-distant future. And that would change some of the averages Allen would need to break the record, of course.
But right now, factoring in some regression into his late 30s, it seems most reasonable to assume Allen would have to play until his Age 40 or Age 41 season — 2036 or 2037 — to finish his NFL career as the game’s total touchdown leader.
Do you think Allen will eventually own this record?
