78 Years of Solitude (Part 5)
– by Mario Crescibene
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Part 4
Part 5
In a dimly lit corner of a Colombian casino is a roulette wheel that refuses to stop spinning. The tireless dealer keeps up an endless dance of turning the wheel and collecting my chips. But I don’t care. I’m here to catch lightning, not slowly accrue interest.
There’s a long backstory to how I got here: this scene in the casino takes place just after the climax in a gonzo chronicle I call “Love in the Time of Covid”. It tells the story of my first
trip to Medellín — a fleeting convergence of wandering souls and collective creation. It’s Fear and Loathing wrapped in a love letter to Colombia. But I won’t bore you with the non-baseball details.
The important thing to know is that at this point in the story, I’d become friends with a fellow Clevelander named Maz who I met on my first day at our hostel, and together, we had embarked on a marauding campaign of Medellín that had most recently seen us chased out of our Airbnb by a drug dealer I had accidentally ratted out to the owners.
After our narrow escape, it only seemed natural to double down on our luck and head straight to the nearest casino. With the winnings we could cover the cost of the hotel room.
Skipping past the extracurriculars that took place before leaving the hotel…
And skipping the sweat-inducing police pat-down with a pocket full of blunts on the way to the casino…
And skipping the absurdity at the Blackjack table where both the highest and lowest value chips were red — which devolved multiple hands into moments of pure chaos, and a near fight with the pit boss…
…brings us to the point where Maz was cashing out the stack he’d won (which was indeed enough to pay for the room), while I clung to my last few chips, trying to win big at the roulette wheel.
It was certainly past 2 AM — just me and some old cook who refused to change the numbers he’d chosen, placing his chips on the same felt squares each time. I, on the other hand, was frantically moving my chips around the board trying to catch that bolt of lightning. Just once. Just one strike.
The old man and I lost at the same rate, but I felt like somehow my few remaining chips disappeared faster: the old man methodically placing his chips on the same numbers each round, me peppering the table with chips — almost like tossing food into a koi pond — the dealer all too happy to gobble up my losses.
And just as I was getting to my last chips, the old man’s number hit. He slowly turned to me with a wry smile, and said, “Sometimes you’ve got to make a decision and let it ride.”
That’s a lesson Stephen Vogt needs to learn. For five months, his lineup cards have looked like my roulette strategy: frantically scattering chips across the board and praying to catch lightning. In the second game against the Rockies, the broadcast noted that the Guardians have used 119 different lineups this season. Early in the year, that level of experimentation serves a purpose. But the time for data collection has passed. It’s time for Vogt to pick his best lineup and stick with it.
Running out the exact same lineup two days in a row against Colorado felt like a rare glimpse of enlightenment — a sign that Vogt might be getting the message. But repeating a lineup is only half the battle; you have to run out the right one.
If we are going to lock in a core lineup for 80% of the stretch run, it starts with putting José Ramírez at third and building a defensive firewall around him:
- Shortstop: Hand the job to Angel Genao. His talent is real, and his instincts belong at short.
- Second Base: Shift Brayan Rocchio back to second base to lock down our defense up the middle.
- Designated Hitter / Second Base: Let Travis Bazzana focus on DH with occasional second-base duties to simplify the game and limit his defensive liability.
- First Base: Nathaniel Lowe gets the everyday nod.
- Outfield: Jo Adell in left, Steven Kwan in center, and Chase DeLauter in right.
- Catcher: Rotate Patrick Bailey and Austin Hedges behind the dish.
For the remaining 20% of games, rotate Angel Martínez into the outfield with Petey Halpin and David Fry providing depth off the bench.
The time for tinkering is over — Vogt has to pick his best nine, trust the group, and stop reinventing the wheel every game.
He has to stop scattering the chips across the board and hoping to get lucky on the next spin. A playoff run requires consistency, and consistency starts with knowing who your best players are, and letting them play.
And Vogt has to stop letting every matchup dictate the next move. The more he becomes a slave to matchups, the more predictable he becomes, and the easier it is for opposing managers to manipulate him.
It’s time for Stephen Vogt to choose his best lineup and stick with it.
It’s time to let it ride.
