After two straight weeks of early window kickoffs in which the Dallas Cowboys had to fight, claw, scratch, and get knocked down to go 1-1 against the Arizona Cardinals and Indianapolis Colts, they play in the Sunday late afternoon window against the San Francisco 49ers.
Both teams are off a win, which puts the Cowboys right back in a position they’ve been time and time again and failed in nearly every time, trying to win consecutive games under Brian Schottenheimer. The Cowboys can’t afford to spin
their wheels much longer if they want to make this season mean something though.
This 49ers matchup is exactly that opportunity for the Cowboys, so let’s get to how they can pull off the upset.
The Dallas Cowboys will beat the San Francisco 49ers if…
…they win on 1st down on both offense and defense.
Think for a second about how many NFL offenses are truly earning the label of “elite”, “scary”, or “explosive” right now, then without looking at any other metrics or analytics consider the top four tiers in the first downs per play category. They are the Bills, 49ers, Lions, and Bengals tied for first, the Cowboys in second, and the Jaguars and Rams in third just ahead of the Patriots and Chiefs.
Also among these teams, the 49ers, Lions, and Bills are in the top five for fewest third downs faced per game. The Patriots, Chiefs, Jags, and Bengals are all virtually tied with the Bills to round out the top nine. Then there are the 14th ranked Cowboys, much closer to teams like the Steelers, Texans, and Browns – none of which have the QB situation Dallas does that should be keeping them out of this not-so-great company. This is a main culprit why they feel like outliers on the elite, scary, or explosive list while the other offenses are much more deserving.
For even more evidence that the Cowboys offense is all about Dak right now, and that Prescott should be getting way more help than he is from all directions, there’s the fact two of the three touchdown drives last week at the Colts came in two minute situations before halftime and at the end of the game. The Cowboys need much more than just Prescott to be at their absolute best against the 49ers, but fairly or not will also need #4 to be among the players that elevates their game this week as well.
The best path towards doing so is much more early down aggressiveness and the Cowboys embracing what they do best by throwing the ball to CeeDee Lamb, and hopefully George Pickens, not just on third down, but all the time.
Without Jake Ferguson for this game, one of the things the Cowboys are going to have an incredibly difficult time doing is persuading the 49ers defense out of loading the box. They don’t have the middle of the field threat to get behind these stacked looks, especially considering the freakish coverage ability to all parts of the field from Fred Warner. Dallas will still need to find it’s times to run the ball and doing so well on early downs would also be huge, but staying in spread looks and letting Prescott make the right decision should be their bread and butter.
This could also allow them to use some tempo to their advantage, getting to the line quickly to give them time to use motions, something the 49ers offense is going to do a ton of to the Cowboys defense, and Cowboys offense would be wise to try to give it back.
On defense, the Cowboys need to do everything they can to limit the vast amount of plays 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan can get to at all times. If Christian McCaffrey is breaking tackles and getting considerable gains on first downs all game, the 49ers are simply too talented and well-coached to be stopped. They will toy with Christian Parker’s defense when ahead of the chains with short, intermediate, and deep layered passes.
There’s also the element of Brock Purdy’s effectiveness scrambling outside of the pocket, another area Quinnen Williams and Kenny Clark will have to step up in pushing the pocket and keeping contain. A complete game in both run and pass defense from the Cowboys front will give them a chance to replicate what the Atlanta Falcons did to the 49ers as the only team to beat them this season.
The Dallas Cowboys will lose to the San Francisco 49ers if…
…they are horribly outcoached.
Even though the disparity in records is obvious in this game between the 7-1 49ers and 4-5 Cowboys, if the game was going to solely be decided by the players on the field, I think many fans on both sides would be expecting a much closer game than they currently are. The biggest gripe from Cowboys fans when it comes to things they’re not looking forward to the most about this toughest game of the season to date is how likely it feels the 49ers coaching staff will run laps around the Cowboys staff, and separate even more on the scoreboard as a result of it.
This chart shows that Schottenheimer is lacking creativity in his offensive formations/plays, while Shanahan is uplifting the 49ers with his usual masterclass at taking a roster hammered by injuries and still finding a way to win.
The Cowboys have already lost to four of the coaches that presently rank above Schottenheimer on this chart, play the 49ers this Sunday, then still have to play the Jaguars and Seahawks in December. The only win for Schotty against a coach above him on this list is the one directly above him by the smallest of margins, Nick Caley with the Texans. The Cowboys are finding themselves outcoached all too often right now.
The Cowboys have the talent to compete with this 49ers team, and they have everything left to play for in the NFC East. If they come out and continue to have communication issues on both sides of the ball, call plays like they’re playing to not lose instead of playing to win, and shoot themselves in the foot with egregious penalties, it will be all most fans need to see that this season is doomed to look like year one under Schottenheimer and fall short of the playoffs again.
A Cowboys head coach that’s had the chance to work with a healthy Dak Prescott has never had as little success as Schottenheimer is now, and Prescott has not beaten the 49ers since being with the coach that drafted him Jason Garrett in 2017. The chance for this QB-HC duo to have a real signature moment is right there for the taking in week ten if the Cowboys play their best game of the season, a challenge the Dallas coaching staff needs to rise to instead of wilting under the pressure of.
