It is crazy how one game can boost morale, but that appears to be the case as the Atlanta Braves took down the mighty Los Angeles Dodgers in dramatic fashion where Ozzie Albies hit a go ahead single in the eighth and Raisel Iglesias secured a save after a leadoff triple to Shohei Ohtani.
The Braves now how a 4.5 game lead in the division which seems drastically better than the 2.5 game lead they had just two days ago when the Braves were having a rough patch while the Phillies had just won nine straight
games.
As the regular season is drawing close to the final month, today could be a good indicator on whether AJ Smith-Shawver, today’s starter, will be good to go for the playoffs. He has not lasted longer than 4.1 innings in his two starts. He gave up two ERs to the Mets and four to the Twins while struggling with his command. If he has a strong showing against the Dodgers, it could show that he is shaking off some rust and may possibly be a viable option come October.
With only 8.2 innings under his belt this season, it is wise to take expectancy stats with a grain of salt, but he xERA does not paint a much prettier picture thus far with a 5.75, which is largely due to a 17.5 percent strikeout rate and 12.5 percent walk rate. One area that has been good thus far is he is limiting hard contact to only 35.7 percent of the time. So far, he is pitching his fastball 5.0 percent less this year than last and has replaced that with curves. This may be due to easing him back in, but with his fastball velocity being in the top 24.0 percent of MLB pitchers, his lower usage may be part of the reason his effectiveness is down so far this season. Again, extremely small sample size, so more innings will give us a better picture as to the true story.
Smith-Shawver has only faced two players on the Dodgers’ roster in his young career. In that time, he has faced Alex Call in five at-bats. Call has gotten the better of him with a .400 average and 1.500 OPS. Backup catcher Ben Rortvedt has faced Smith-Shawver twice and is hitless.
The Dodgers are scheduled to bring Roki Sasaki to the mound. Sasaki has likely disappointed some Dodgers fans this season. He has started twenty-two games and pitched 116.0 innings, so he is eating innings, but his ERA of 4.42 is not much better than his 4.46 last season. His walk and strikeout rates have gotten much better since last season, but both are still underwhelming. His strikeout rate of 23.1 percent places Sasaki just two percent better than average. His walk rate of 9.3 percent is in the bottom 39.0 percent of qualified pitchers. It is a weird combo because his chase rate and whiff rate are both elite, but they are not resulting in many strikeouts comparatively.
Sasaki has only faced five players on the Braves’ roster before and none of them in more than three at-bats. Ozzie Albies has done well in his three ABs with a .667 average to include a HR. Austin Riley, who happens to be hot right now, is 1-2 against him. Harris, Murphy, and Olson have all been hitless thus far.
On paper, this game seems to hinge on how well AJ Smith-Shawver performs. Of the three SPs the Braves face in this series, tonight is the weakest. The bullpen has been used quite a bit lately and Smith-Shawver does not typically go deep into games, so the Braves need to catch a spark on offense to give the bullpen a cushion.
First pitch is at 7:15 EDT
Game Info
Game Time: Wednesday, August 26th, 7:15 pm EDT
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
Watch: BravesVision, MLB Network
Radio/Audio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan
