Last year, we crunched the numbers on the Kansas City Chiefs’ offense at Arrowhead Pride, attempting to predict the overs/under lines for statistical totals. While we were closer than we were with the defense, we by no means hit the nail on the head in our predictions.
We were bullish on nearly every single metric in 2025, except for rushing touchdowns, which we were correctly skeptical of: we took the under on a total of 17.75 rushing touchdowns.
However, we were quite a bit off from our prediction
that quarterback Patrick Mahomes would throw over 29 touchdowns. While injuries definitely played a role in that missed prediction, it wasn’t the only one we were off on. We were also off on our prediction that Kansas City would score more than 26.43 points per game.
Last season, we did our best to ground our predictions in historical data, but this year I’m going to simplify things and go with a metric I have far more faith in: my gut and the team’s vibe.
So let’s dive in and see where we land on how the offense will do in 2026:
Passing touchdowns
Last season: 23
This section should just read “Patrick Mahomes touchdowns.”
I don’t think there are many in Chiefs Kingdom who expect Justin Fields to add meaningfully to this total (even if he does start the first couple of weeks of the season). In 2025, Fields threw just seven touchdowns in nine games played.
Most seasons, I would say that Mahomes is the wildcard in all of this, having the ability to reach into his bag of tricks and drop five touchdowns on an opponent at the drop of a hat. He still does.
He is also recovering from a torn ACL.
There are also other considerations on this team, like actually having a legitimately explosive running game. The addition of free agent backs Kenneth Walker and rookie Emmett Johnson could cut into the number of passing touchdowns the Chiefs have in the red zone.
The third unknown in all of this is the Chiefs’ receiving corps, which underperformed in 2025 and does not look meaningfully better in 2026. This year’s offense has one wide receiver who spent the offseason rehabbing a knee injury in jail, and an undersized Xavier Worthy who struggled to stay healthy in 2025. These are these “proven” playmakers.
Projected passing touchdowns: 24
The Chiefs would have undoubtedly surpassed this mark if Mahomes started all 17 games in 2025. But he didn’t, and we don’t know if he will in 2026. This, mixed with the poaching the running backs are sure to do in the red zone, has me feeling skiddish about this stat line this year.
Rushing touchdowns
Last season: 15
The Chiefs were 20th in the NFL in rushing touchdowns in 2025, and this was mostly because scrapping for dirty yards in short-yardage situations was the one thing running back Kareem Hunt still excelled at in 2025. Without his gritty, “old man” strength effort in the trenches, this number could have been worse.
It has been a Freaky Friday level switch-a-roo ahead of this season. Walker was the best free agent on the market, and then the front office drafted a guy in Johnson who I had tied for second in my pre-draft running back rankings. On top of this, the team signed an electric depth piece in Emari Demarcado.
All of this should translate into the Chiefs taking a decent jump in rushing touchdowns this season.
The unknown variable in this equation is whether Mahomes will still be willing (and allowed) to scramble and sacrifice his body for a handful of rushing touchdowns on his surgically repaired knee.
Projected rushing touchdowns: Over 20
I don’t think head coach Andy Reid is going to let Mahomes scramble as much as he has in years past. That being said, it’s impossible to know if Mahomes can help himself. Even if Mahomes is out of the equation, I’m so bullish on this backfield and the return of offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy that this feels like an easy “over.”
Passes over 20 yards
Last season: 52
The Chiefs actually hit the over in this category in 2025, against our prediction of 49.
Ironically, if this number jumps in 2026, I don’t think it will be largely due to our wide receivers. Sure, receiver Tyquan Thornton has a handful of big plays in him, but I think the difference this season is that Kansas City has some very talented receiving backs on this roster, and it’s not hard to imagine an additional dozen or so screen passes breaking for 20 yards.
Projected passes over 20 yards: No significant change
I think the Chiefs will be better in nearly every way in 2025, except for explosive plays. I think this offense is going to methodically move the ball and lean into Reid’s West Coast roots.
Red-zone touchdown efficiency
Last season: 57.6% (14th in NFL)
See everything I’ve written about the running backs.
Projected red-zone touchdown efficiency: At least 65%
The Chiefs are going to dominate in the red zone.
Points per game
Last season: 21.3 points (21st in the NFL)
This number was tanked a bit by the way the Chiefs finished the season, with just 56 points over their last five games. If Mahomes can stay healthy and the running game is as good as we think it’s going to be, 2025 will be the exception and not the new norm.
Projected scoring this year: Over 24.5 points per game
If the Chiefs had scored 24 points in every game in 2025, the final record would have been 12-5. I think it’s a goal that is within reach.
Would you say “over” or “under” to any of these projected statistical totals? Let us know in the comments.
