The first trade rumor of the Guardians’ offseason is a bit unexpected, as rumors are percolating about Stephen Vogt potentially interviewing for the job of managing the Seattle Mariners.
To be abundantly clear, as I am NOT trying to clickbait anyone, we have no confirmation from Vogt or from any team sources that he is even interested in the Mariners’ job. What we do have is speculation from Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com and Zack Meisel of the Selby is Godcast and the Athletic that Vogt to Seattle
MIGHT be a possibility, without any indication that it is anything but a slim one. With that said, Stephen Vogt is openly a very committed husband and father (to three young kids) whose family lives in Olympia, Washington during the school year and then comes and stays with him in Northeast Ohio during the summer, meaning he is with them only approximately eight months of the year. “Why don’t they just move here?” Well, folks… I love Cleveland, but, if I had to move anywhere else, I’d probably move to the Pacific Northwest, too. And, if that’s where my wife’s family was located, and I had the financial means to make it work, it would probably push the Pacific Northwest to the top of the list. Vogt and his family are human beings and the opportunity to manage in Seattle is not guaranteed to come open again any time soon. Teams WANT to find mangers to retain and Seattle is not going into some kind of rebuild (they’ll be aiming for 85 wins annually, as P.O.B.O. Jerry Dipoto once famously let slip).
So, let me establish a few things, here:
1. I love Stephen Vogt and want him to manage the Guardians FOREVER
2. I don’t have any inside knowledge of his feelings about the opportunity to manage the Mariners
3. If Vogt would ask the team to let him interview with Seattle, find the job a good fit, and proceed to request a trade there, I wouldn’t hold the slight bit of resentment for a husband/dad trying to find a way to do an impossibly time-consuming job in a manner easier for him to fulfill the dual role all of us husbands and dads have to worry about.
Vogt signed a contract extension (terms not disclosed) following the 2024 season, so he is still under contract in Cleveland for 2027 and would need to be traded. What would the compensation for trading for a manager who has won three division titles in three years, reached two ALCS’s and won two manager-of-the-year awards look like? In 2012, the Blue Jays traded John Farrell and a middling relief pitcher (David Carpenter) for utility infielder Mike Aviles. The Blue Jays then traded Aviles to, you guessed it, the Cleveland Indians for reliever Esmil Rogers. Oh, the Blue Jays also threw in a minor league catcher… named Yan Gomes. So… needless to say, a good manager was not necessarily seen as much of value in onfield talent fourteen years ago, given the return Toronto netted, here.
Has the value of a manager changed since then? I don’t think we have any way to know the answer to that, for certain. We do know that Vogt is considered by players and, likely, executives as among the best managers in the game. So, whatever the top amount for a trade return would be, that’s what the Guardians would have to consider for trading him. We also know that the Guardians have been among the leading teams in MLB for compensating their managers in the past, so I would say it is safe to assume that Vogt is well-compensated for his work here in Cleveland. So… if Seattle wants Vogt, they will need to offer a notable trade return and be willing to pay Vogt in a manner commensurate with what he is currently receiving in Cleveland.
What is a notable trade return? I have trouble assuming it would be more than, AT MOST, a reliever with potential to be high leverage or maybe a platoon bat of some kind with defensive flexibility. As great as a manager can be, it’s hard to prove they have significant impact over a replacement level manager (i.e. if Seattle wants Stephen Vogt, can’t they hire one of his assistants or Kai Correa and get something similar in managerial production without giving up on-field talent?). The Guardians aren’t getting Julio Rodriguez, Bryce Miller or George Kirby for Stephen Vogt.
And, ultimately, the reason I think Vogt stays in Cleveland is because I doubt Seattle would meet Cleveland’s asking price to trade for Vogt. On the slight possibility that Vogt indicates he wants to be in Seattle at all costs, maybe the Guardians’ hand would be forced. But, I suspect it is far more likely the team indicates that they value Vogt higher than the Mariners do and that this is a factor that encourages Vogt and his family to know this is the place to stay.
Stephen, we love you here in Cleveland. Any possibility we can convince the family to move out here for longer periods of the year so you can be a dad/husband on a more regular basis? Let us know, because we’ve got a good thing going and we don’t want to lose it.
