Buffalo Bills Week 16 AFC playoff race rooting interests

Week 15 was very kind to the Buffalo Bills. Not only did they have the big come-from-behind win over the division-leading New England Patriots to keep their quest for a sixth-consecutive division title

rolling, several key opponents were officially eliminated from the playoffs.

While the Bills didn’t change their six-seed position in the AFC, the path to the finish line got a lot less crowded. Here’s a look at how things stand as we head into Week 16.

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AFC East Week 16 standings

New England Patriots (11-3)
Buffalo Bills (10-4)
Miami Dolphins (6-8)
New York Jets (3-11)

AFC Playoff Picture heading into Week 16

Denver Broncos (12-2) – y
New England Patriots (11-3)
Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4)
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6)
Los Angeles Chargers (10-4)
Buffalo Bills (10-4)
Houston Texans (9-5)
Indianapolis Colts (8-6)
Baltimore Ravens (7-7)
Kansas City Chiefs (6-8) – x
Miami Dolphins (6-8) – x
Cincinnati Bengals (4-10) – x
New York Jets (3-11) – x
Cleveland Browns (3-11) – x
Las Vegas Raiders (2-12) – x
Tennessee Titans (2-12) – x

No one changed positions in the AFC after the close of Week 15, however the fate of several teams was signed. Every team above with an (x) has been eliminated. That’s everyone from the 10 seed down. That’s Kansas City. That’s Miami. That’s Cincinnati.

While Buffalo’s road to a Super Bowl won’t have Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow or even Tua Tagovailoa in it, there are still plenty of quality (and by that I do mean really good) teams in the way. Denver, as marked by a (y) above has clinched a playoff spot and can take the AFC West with a win and they can lock in the conference’s one seed if the Patriots lose at the same time. Of course, Houston is a problem for Josh Allen and Sean McDermott so staying ahead of them and forcing C.J. Stroud to play at Highmark (if it came to that), is going to be key. And, you can never rule out Aaron Rodgers who, like Allen, pulls out wins at the most opportune times, or Justin Herbert.

But first things first, Buffalo can lock in a playoff appearance with a win this weekend plus a loss by either Houston or Indianapolis. And, with their win over New England last week, the division title is still on the table, but keeping it out there will require another win while snatching the crown from the Patriots will require some help from some unlikely allies.

So, here’s a look at who Bills Mafia needs to root for in Week 16.

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AFC East Week 16 Bills rooting interests

Buffalo Bills (10-4) over Cleveland Browns (3-11), Sunday 1 p.m. EST (CBS)

Obviously, right? The Bills can guarantee themselves at least one postseason game this week. They need (a little) help, but it doesn’t matter what else happens around the league if they don’t take care of their own business. On paper, this doesn’t look like too hard a task, but half of Buffalo’s losses this year have come to teams that aren’t making the postseason while another is to a team very much on the bubble.

What once looked lost is still out there to be claimed. The Patriots have not wrapped up a division crown and as long as the Bills keep winning, it will come down to the last day of the season. So, a sixth AFC East title is still a possibility. Oddly enough, the one seed is still in play for at least one more week as well. If the Broncos lose (and yes, we are rooting against them below), that top spot is still up for grabs. Of course, there are a lot of twists and turns to get to that spot, but as of right now, everything is in play.

Go Bills!

New York Jets (3-11) over New Orleans Saints (4-10), Sunday 1 p.m. EST (CBS)

Both of these teams have been eliminated. Not much is happening good for anyone this week based on the results of this game. But a Jets win moves them down the ladder just a little bit in terms of NFL Draft position. And if you believe in momentum and playing for bragging rights and all that stuff, a New York win could give them a little boost going into Week 17 when they play the Patriots. New England needs another division loss in case of a tie with Buffalo at the end. If winning this week energizes the Jets, so be it.

Cincinnati Bengals (4-10) over Miami Dolphins (6-8), Sunday 1 p.m. EST (CBS)

Again, neither of these teams are making the playoffs. As far as draft position, sure Miami is in the East with Buffalo so keeping them away from the top few picks is ideal. But Cincinnati with a healthy Joe Burrow is dangerous, so giving them more draft weapons is also not a great idea.

Here are my thoughts on this game. Miami has benched quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. This doesn’t give off winning vibes and it may lose Mike McDaniel the locker room (if he still has it at all). But if the Dolphins can’t pull off a win over the 4-10 Bengals, McDaniel may be forced to go back to the 2020 NFL Draft’s fifth overall pick. If the team loves their QB, they could rally around him and take down the Patriots in the season finale, giving Buffalo back the AFC East crown. It all depends on who they love more.

So yes, this was a momentum one. But, on the practical side, keeping draft picks away from division rivals is always good.

Baltimore Ravens (7-7) over New England Patriots (11-2), Sunday 8:20 p.m. EST (NBC)

Buffalo needs New England to lose to either the Jets or the Dolphins. But that’s if their records end up tied at the end of the season. A loss to Baltimore (plus Buffalo beating Cleveland) ties the Bills and the Patriots. That means New York or Miami wouldn’t have to beat New England in Weeks 17 and/or 18 — they would simply need a tie.

Week 16 games that impact Bills’ playoff hopes

Dallas Cowboys (6-7-1) over Los Angeles Chargers (10-4), Sunday 1 p.m. EST (FOX)

This is about seeding. Los Angeles is the five seed, Buffalo is the six. A Chargers loss could bump Buffalo up to a five and set up a rematch with the Steelers rather than the Jaguars. Anyone who suffered through Buffalo’s four Super Bowl appearances is going to struggle to root for the Cowboys. I get it, but take one for the team here and vote silver on Sunday.

Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4) over Denver Broncos (12-2), Sunday 4:05 p.m. EST (FOX)

Again, this is seeding. With the one seed still in play, the one seed must lose. It’s that simple. Jacksonville is in the three spot. A win, combined with a New England loss moves them up to two, so they have plenty to play for right here.

Pittsburgh Steelers (8-4) over Detroit Lions (8-6), Sunday 4:25 p.m. EST (CBS)

Believe it or not, we’re rooting for the AFC here. Buffalo’s win over Pittsburgh two weeks ago means that, unless the Bills lose out, the Steelers can’t beat them in the standings should the Bills win the AFC East. But, should Buffalo tie with another team, having a boosted Strength of Victory score helps. Of course, there’s always the added bonus that a Steelers win keeps the Ravens on the outside looking in for another week.

Las Vegas Raiders (2-10) over Houston Texans (9-5), Sunday 4:25 p.m. EST (CBS)

A Houston loss with a Buffalo win is all it takes to guarantee the Bills a spot in the playoffs. But there’s more at stake here. It’s fair to say that Houston is a serious problem for Sean McDermott. So, making sure they stay behind the Bills in the AFC standings would mean that the Texans then have to travel to Buffalo should the two meet in the playoffs. Josh Allen has never won a game in Houston, so having the Texans come to his house is a better scenario.

San Francisco 49ers (10-4) over Indianapolis Colts (8-6), Monday 8:15 p.m. (ESPN)

If Houston loses on Sunday, we don’t have to worry about this game. But if they win, the Bills can still clinch their spot with a Colts loss. Indianapolis is hoping that an aged Phillip Rivers can keep their playoff hopes alive. Once the AFC’s top spot, they are on the verge of elimination now.

Remainder of Bills’ NFL Week 16 rooting interests

Here, it’s all about a few things: Rooting for outcomes that improve Buffalo’s overall SOS or SOV, NFC vs. AFC, or taking the team that will better-position the Bills in the playoff race.

Philadelphia Eagles (9-5) over Washington Commanders (4-10) – SOS
Kansas City Chiefs (6-8) over Tennessee Titans (2-12) – SOV
Atlanta Falcons (5-9) over Arizona Cardinals (3-11) – SOS

Games that do not impact the Bills in Week 16

Los Angeles Rams (11-3) at Seattle Seahawks (11-3)
Green Bay Packers (9-4-1) at Chicago Bears (10-4)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7) at Carolina Panters (7-7)
Minnesota Vikings (6-8) at New York Giants (2-12)

Teams on Bye
None

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