A recent report from The New York Post’s Jon Heyman suggested that the San Diego Padres might return to their former Seidler-spending ways this offseason, even getting into the bidding war for the services of Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal.
Skubal has long been sought after by other clubs, and teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers and the New York Mets will factor in as well in the bidding. He’s likely to receive the largest free agent contract ever for a pitcher, with most analysts estimating his value
to be somewhere around $50 million annually.
That number blows the previous record of $43.33 million (Max Scherzer, Mets), though that was only for three years. Skubal would likely be locked up for much longer than that, and under a no-trade clause.
The war for Skubal
Skubal will, without a doubt, break that record. The only question is by how much.
The sole way that number could be dampened is by injury. He’s never not dominating on the mound, it seems like a certainty in life: death, taxes, and Tarik Skubal going six quality innings. But if he were to require surgery, there would be a major question mark entering free agency. He would likely still garner a large salary, but it could cause the AAV to dip.
Here’s the thing, though. Of the three teams mentioned thus far in the bidding (Dodgers, Mets, Padres), San Diego has the best reason to sign Skubal.
The Dodgers are hardly short on starting pitching, with a rotation headlined by Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Even with their injuries they still manage to piece it together every year.
They don’t need the southpaw’s services nearly as much as others, but they’ll be bidders simply because they like to spend. They’ve now picked up a top free agent in three consecutive offseasons, and four of the last five (Freddie Freeman, 2022; Shohei Ohtani, 2023; Roki Sasaki, 2025; Kyle Tucker, 2026).
On the other hand, the Mets desperately need consistent starters. They have a rotation with huge upside, but they’ve largely missed the mark. The only one producing right now is Nolan McLean (who could win NL Rookie of the Year this season).
But — if GM David Stearns manages to keep his job amidst New York’s torrid start to the year — he’s shown a hesitancy to extend pitchers contracts longer than a couple years. Skubal will be looking to attain a bit more length than that.
San Diego has the most compelling case for a true ace like Skubal. Both Michael King and Nick Pivetta have opt-outs in their contracts after this season, and they each seem likely to test free agency. Bob Nightengale of USA Today even wrote that “As long as he’s breathing at the end of the season, [Pivetta will] opt out.”
The Friars, like they do every year, need certainty on the pitching front. They’ve got Vásquez for 2027, but that’s about it. It’s possible they retain Pivetta given the flexor strain that’s kept him off the mound for the foreseeable future. But King will likely walk given he’s pitched like an ace again after an injury-plagued 2025.
A return to the Seidler way
If San Diego is actually in on Skubal this upcoming offseason, it would mark a return to the spending ways of former owner Peter Seidler. He shelled out just about everything he had in order to field a winning team for the Padres. And, although Seidler accomplished his vision, he never got to see the club win a World Series before he passed away in 2023.
José E. Feliciano and Kwanza Jones would like to see it happen. The two purchased the club for a $3.9 billion valuation with their stake in the club being up to 40%, according to Dennis Lin and Mike Vorkunov of the Athletic.
Other investors will join as minority owners. It seems likely that the Seidler family will retain some level of ownership. Drew Brees and Vuori’s Joe Kudla had been reported to desire joining ownership so they could be in on the club as well. Alfredo Harp Hélu also stated that he will retain his 15% stake in the organization.
But regardless of that, there’s a question of the Feliciano-Jones ownership’s commitment to spending. Feliciano, through his private equity firm Clearlake Capital, has owned Chelsea F.C. of the Premier League. Chelsea has had problems with their ownership in recent years, but they have been the biggest-spending club in the league.
Is Feliciano’s move to the Padres a desire to step out and create something of his own away from the ownership drama with Chelsea? Or was he the cause of Chelsea’s problems and ousted by the other owners to pursue something else?
It’s difficult to say until more is revealed about the two. San Diego has yet to formally announce the sale of the club, as the minority ownership still has to be sorted out. Once it is, the owners of MLB will convene and vote in Feliciano and Jones, though that process is mostly a formality.
But for the Friar Faithful the team being sold is great news. Each offseason, the Padres have felt like they were simply treading water instead of actually competing with other teams. They’ve managed to hold up until now, coming off of consecutive postseason appearances and 90-win seasons, but the Seidler family has pulled back the reins on Peter Seidler’s bodacious spending of the past.
If Feliciano and Jones return to that spending, the Friars might be unstoppable. With rockstar GM A.J. Preller in the manager’s chair for the club (with a bigger wallet to boot), San Diego could be even more of a championship-caliber team than they already are. That makes it easy to dream of Skubal in brown and gold.
