At this point, it is nigh guaranteed that Serge Gnabry extends his contract at Bayern Munich past 2026. Multiple reliable sources have reported the deal is practically done, with the Germany international set to earn up to a potential €15million per year until 2028.
The question now is this: Is this the right decision? Bayern fans have been rather critical of Gnabry, who inherited the #7 shirt from Franck Ribéry but has not managed to hit the same heights as the Frenchman at Bayern. You have seen
the title of the article, so you know this writer’s opinion. But let us tally the positives and negatives together to see why extending Gnabry’s contract may not be the best decision for the club:
Positives
1. Still capable of being world class
Bayern fans were skeptical of the vital role Serge Gnabry would play in the 2025/26 season, given how little depth existed in the attacking positions. The Gnabry of last season would not do. But the former Arsenal FC player started the season like a house on fire, grabbing 6 goal contributions in the first 6 Bundesliga matches. Among thse matches he demonstrated his ability to produce genuinely out of this world moments, such as his blasted shot that opened the scoring against Hamburger SV or the finish from a seemingly impossible angle for the final goal against Hoffenheim. Gnabry has proved the same in previous seasons, too. He is capable of performing to a world class level.
2. More squad planning security
At the time of writing, a total of 7 senior Bayern players’ contracts are set to run out in 2026 (if one includes Nicholas Jackson’s loan deal). Given it takes a lot of money to replace a player and it disrupts the squad’s chemistry, it is far from ideal to risk changing 7 players in any given off-season (just look at Liverpool right now). But who can Bayern scratch off that list? The likes of Leon Goretzka and Raphaël Guerreiro likely do not warrant earning a new contract, Manuel Neuer and Sven Ulreich deserve more time to make their decisions and Jackson may fall into both categories. Bayern would love to extend Dayot Upamecano’s contract, of course, but it seems uncertain. Outside of Upamecano, Gnabry is likely the player who has most warranted a new contract and will still be able to continue for a few years. Ergo, it makes sense to reduce squad planning uncertainty.
3. Two footed scoring lethality
It is not too long ago that Gnabry was consistently one of Bayern’s top scorers. In 2022, he ended second on Bayern’s top scorer list behind Robert Lewandowski. In 2023, he was Bayern’s top scorer in the league. In recent years, those numbers have tailed off following injuries and loss of form, but he is still capable of the goal threat that saw him hit those numbers (as mentioned above). Moreover, he is arguably the most versatile goal scorer in the squad behind Harry Kane, with his powerful shots and ability to shoot with both feet bringing an inevitable goal scoring threat.
Negatives
1. Inconsistent form
While Gnabry is still capable of the highest of highs, he is also capable of the lowest of lows. Too often in recent years, he has racked up most of his goal contributions in a few extraordinary performances before losing his form and offering little for multiple games in a row. How about the 2022-2023 season, when he started quite well, went a month and half without a goal contribution, picked his form up again to end the year before waiting until the end of April in 2023 to score his second goal of the year? How about when he got his final goal contribution of 2024 in September and went months without any noteworthy contribution?
Goal contributions are not the end all be all, but these droughts are extraordinary for a forward at the highest level. How about now? After starting the campaign so brightly, Gnabry’s form has again seriously petered out in recent weeks. The Germany international’s form fluctuates wildly, which is not a quality any top team appreciates. Particularly one with the kind of small squad Bayern does. Speaking of which…
2. Does not meet important squad criteria
Bayern’s rather small squad size has been well documented. Though Bayern’s executives argue against calling it small, they acknowledge it has shrunk over time. They have also, however, explained that they have kept this smaller squad in mind while identifying transfer targets and have built the squad to suit its’ size. Some of the key characteristics they looked for is a strong injury record and consistent performers, so that the key members would be reliable week in, week out and consistently available for selection. Luis Díaz, Michael Olise and Jonathan Tah (key members of the first team yet all are yet to miss a single match for Bayern due to injury) are good examples of this transfer strategy at work.
Gnabry, on the other hand, does not. He is, as mentioned, inconsistent. Nor is his injury record very good. He lost most of the 2023/24 season to injury and regularly suffers knocks and unfortunate injuries. Can he be a key player in this squad with that inconsistency and injury record? This writer says no. And if he is not a key player, what is up with his salary?
3. Salary structure
One has to keep in mind that every report states that Gnabry can earn A MAXIMUM of €15 million a year. Clearly, there are plenty of bonuses he would have to reach to earn that amount. It could be that his new contract will earn him 10 million guaranteed per year plus a potential 5 million in bonuses, like Leroy Sané was offered last year.
Having said all of that, however, one could argue the aforementioned salary would still be too handsome a sum for Gnabry. Sané was a regular starter when he was offered that contract by Bayern, while Gnabry has lost his starting spot in the team to Lennart Karl and is currently relegated to making an impact on the bench. And this all before Jamal Musiala returns from his injury. Gnabry will likely not be in Bayern’s best XI moving forward, so is paying all this money to a bench player the correct move?
This could also harm the salary structure the Bavarians have been so carefully reconstructing. If Gnabry is paid this amount, all the other squad players in the attack could point to his contract and demand similar fees. Karl has already overtaken Gnabry in the pecking order and, despite his recent contract extension, his current deal ends in 2029. New negotiations will start in a year or two. What is stopping him from demanding to be paid the same amount as Gnabry is now? Is that something Bayern would be willing to pay someone so young? This and more are the risks Bayern take with offering Gnabry this new contract.
4. Is Gnabry really needed anymore?
It is a rather blunt question, but one has to wonder if there is not some merit to the question. The problem is not that Gnabry cannot be good enough to play for Bayern anymore (he can). But the squad may already be on the way to naturally phasing him out. Gnabry’s recent explosion in form came in a central position, where his declining pace is less needed and he can work in his preferred central positions. Karl has burst on to the scene in an even more grandiose manner, however, and has become a regular starter in a central role recently ahead of Gnabry. Though Karl is Olise’s first backup in the squad, he is arguably at his best in the center, having played in that position more than any other in his life.
Again, this is all before Musiala has been able to make his return from injury. People have debated which of Musiala or Karl to leave out when both are fully fit, which is a wonderful problem for head coach Vincent Kompany to have but a terrible one for Gnabry. Musiala and Karl are vying for the central position in attack behind the striker, which would make Gnabry the 3rd option. That makes him rather redundant. If he is redundant in his favored central position and struggles to make an impact out wide or as a striker, how much does Bayern still need Gnabry at all?
Conclusion
There are numerous upsides and downsides to keeping Serge Gnabry, but this writer would argue that there are more of the latter than the former. But what do you think? Are there upsides or downsides that this article missed? Is keeping Gnabry the right decision? Sure, nothing we fans can do now will change Bayern’s decision to extend the 30-year-old’s contract. But feel free to, erm, exercise your free will and make up your own mind on the matter.
If you are looking for more Bayern Munich and German national team coverage, check out the latest episodes of Bavarian Podcast Works, which you can get on Acast, Spotify, Apple, or any leading podcast distributor…
