The Texas Longhorns suffered their first loss by 20+ points since Steve Sarkisian’s first season as the head coach in Austin. Is there a coaching issue in Austin? A talent problem? Physicality? Or are the Georgia Bulldogs just that good?
Daniel Seahorn (@DanielSeahorn) – Sark and his staff have flat-out been outcoached by Kirby Smart and Georgia in all three matchups. I’m not saying that Sark and his staff are bad coaches, despite coming off a bye week, Georgia looked much more prepared for the game,
and once again caught Texas flat-footed in the special teams department. For me, that was the biggest gap between the programs in the matchup, and if Texas wants to win a national title, then they have to bridge that gap in some way, shape, or form.
Gerald Goodridge (@ghgoodridge) – I think it’s a combination of factors. Georgia adjusted better on both sides of the ball, pressed its clear advantages, and took a well-timed gamble that turned a close game into a blowout. That’s coaching. Many of the problems that face Texas are discipline and mental problems, which I suppose also come back to coaching. Unforced errors and drops ending drives, miscommunications leading to big plays, all come back to coaching. You also have to highlight that this is very clearly a talented roster with some glaring holes that Georgia did well to exploit, which is also coaching. I’m not saying this is a bad staff, but when compared to Kirby Smart, Ryan Day, and even Dabo Swinney a year ago, you can see the gap between this coaching staff and National Championship coaches.
Cameron Parker (@camerondparker) – I believe there’s a physicality and mental edge that the Bulldogs have over Texas. After the win over Texas, Kirby Smart said, “I don’t know that a lot of these kids nowadays, they want the check. They don’t want physicality. When you have the check and no physicality, you end up with nothing. So you’re not just getting checks at our place, we’re hitting people.” Could he have been posturing after a big-time win to appeal to recruits? Sure. But I think his comments have truth to them.
Jacob Neidig (@jneidig_2) – All of the above. The Texas roster was poorly constructed in the offseason, has been outcoached during the year, particularly last week, and Georgia is a respectable team. All three of these factors contributed to the loss in Athens. Sark is on the hook as the man in charge and should be held accountable. He’s the person responsible for the final product. With that being said, people suggesting he is incapable of summiting the peak or piecing it all together have forgotten the previous two years.
Quentin Bell (@uncleqbell) – If anything, it’s coaching. Georgia is good, but have shown moments of weakness through the season. Talent and physicality aren’t an issue in my opinion. These men are breaking their hands out here for Christ’s sake, but what stands out the most is the coaching. Coming off a bye week, you’d think Sark and his staff would be more prepared with special teams since that has been one of the X-factors for the Longhorns, but the amount of drops, errors, and lack of awareness showed not just through the team, but shone from the coaching staff.
Wescott Eberts (@SBN_Wescott) – Coaching certainly has to be a factor here. Texas has averaged less than 15 points per game over the three games against Georgia in the last 13 months, an indictment of Steve Sarkisian’s ability to put points on the board against Kirby Smart’s defense. The fake punt in the SEC Championship game and the onside kick last week loomed large in the last two outcomes.
In terms of blue-chip ratio, the Dawgs have six percent more talent than the Horns, but there seems to be a wider gap than that in how the talent translates to the field, including the difference in functional physicality.
So it’s hard to pinpoint one thing behind Steve Sarkisian having an overall Kirby Smart problem.
Is Saturday the biggest game of Sark’s coaching career in Austin?
Daniel – No. They need to win the game if they still want an outside shot of backing into the playoffs, but I don’t consider it to be anything close to the biggest game of his coaching career.
Gerald – I don’t think so, but on that same token, a loss here would be the worst loss since the 2021 loss to Kansas.
Cameron – It’s not the biggest game of his career, but this has to be the most pressure he’s felt in a while in Austin. I’m very interested in seeing how he gets his team to respond after a deflating loss to Georgia.
Jacob – Not even remotely close. I’d say either of the 2 conference championship games or the 4 playoff games. A loss would be season-defining, hardly career-defining.
Quentin – No, but a loss would hold weight and sway others. The next two games are rivalry games, and Arkansas is known for a surprise every once in a while, while A&M looks like one of the best teams in the nation.
Wescott – No, and I’m not sure it’s even that close. A loss would certainly sting, but it seems like the season goals are now effectively off the table, so I’m not sure how devastating a defeat would be other than the poor optics given the Arkansas losing streak and with the early signing period approaching.
Is it a pipe dream to believe that Texas can reach the College Football Playoff after last week’s loss? What needs to happen?
Daniel – Maybe not a pipe dream, but it’s on life support. They need to win the next two games and see what happens. Having wins over a few top 10 opponents won’t look too shabby on the resume at 9-3.
Gerald – The dream is still alive, but they need a lot of help. Most importantly, win the next two. If they do that, Texas will have two wins over teams that will likely also make the CFP field. We know the committee both suffers from recency bias and heavily weighs quality wins, so that would be a big boon for Texas.
Cameron – First, Texas needs to hammer Arkansas and beat Texas A&M. You also likely need either Notre Dame to stumble (not happening) or Alabama and Oklahoma to stumble down the stretch.
Jacob – Yes. That ship has sailed. The math works against the Longhorns, and they hardly deserve a spot based on the good old eye test. The Longhorns should focus on finishing the season with two quality performances. Hanging on to playoff hopes is ignoring what this team has shown on the field the last three months.
Quentin – Ehh, kinda, sorta, maybe. Texas needs to win these last two games, and the right teams need to lose, but it looks like a small window for that to happen. I’ve seen crazier things happen in college football, so you never know.
Wescott – Any hope rests on the Longhorns winning the next two games. Beyond that, they would need a lot of help from teams in front of them, losing once or perhaps even twice to give Texas a shot at sneaking in. So, yeah, dreaming that way requires being deep in a pipe that probably has something more intoxicating than marijuana in it.
Will Texas get back on the right track against Arkansas? (-8.5 at FanDuel) or the Razorbacks?
Daniel (7-3/1-9 ATS) – Arkansas isn’t very good this year, but Bobby Petrino has gotten them to play hard and compete as the interim. Texas can and should win this game on Saturday, but they are in no position to sleepwalk through this one. Texas 35, Arkansas 24
Gerald (7-3/2-8 ATS) – I hate this game more than I have hated any all season. With the close losses and a win over Texas, Bobby Petrino could very well get the right boosters in his corner and get himself a full-time job. Crazier things have happened. I think this is going to be a shootout, and Texas plays better at home than on the road. I’ve got Texas 35, Arkansas 28
Cameron (6-4/6-4 ATS) – This has upset written all over it. Six of the Razorbacks’ losses have been by only one score. It’s not a team that has quit despite having its head coach fired halfway through the season. Meanwhile, you know the Austin crowd will be lethargic after last week’s deflating loss to Georgia, and you wonder how the players will respond. Saturday will be Sark’s biggest challenge yet… Texas 34, Arkansas 27
Jacob (7-3/4-6 ATS) – This Arkansas game is sneaky. A quick perusal of the Hog schedule shows how close they are to a completely different season. Five losses by 3 points or less are brutal. So, this won’t be a cakewalk, but I think Texas does enough on offense to win a high-scoring affair. Texas 38, Arkansas 30
Quentin (6-3/3-6 ATS) – This rivalry game might be tougher than others may expect. Arkansas is known to show up especially when momentum isn’t swinging towards the Longhorns’ way. I think it’ll be close, but with Texas edging out a win. Texas 34, Arkansas 28.
Wescott (6-5/3-7 ATS) – I’m going to stick with my SP+ approach even though the fourth-quarter surge by Georgia ensured that it didn’t work. The Longhorns win this game, but narrowly fail to cover the spread. Texas 33, Arkansas 23
