Expectations for the 2026-27 Pittsburgh Penguins are not quite as low as they were going into the 2025-26 season, when it was generally expected that they would not only be one of the worst teams in the NHL, but that they were the only team in the NHL that was not actually trying to win.
The expectations, however, are also not particularly high, even coming off a 98-point season with strong underlying numbers and a playoff berth.
This was, by almost every objective measure that we have to evaluate
hockey teams, a very good hockey team.
The belief in that happening again is not really carrying over. Especially with the odds makers.
BetMGM has their Stanley Cup odds right now at +10000, which is 22nd in the entire NHL.
Their odds to win the Eastern Conference are +4000, which is 13th in the conference and below the Columbus Blue Jackets, Ottawa Senators, Toronto Maple Leafs and New Jersey Devils … all teams that missed the playoffs entirely a year ago, and outside of Toronto, all teams that have done very little to their rosters this offseason.
They are +210 to make the playoffs, -275 to miss the playoffs.
Their point total is between 88.5 and 91.5 depending on the sportsbook you are looking at right now.
That is an expectation for a step back.
From a more subjective standpoint, the general feel around just seems to be that a step back is likely, and that not everything will go as well as it did a year ago. Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, Bryan Rust and Erik Karlsson are all a year older. Some of them showed some signs of slowing down and running out of steam in the playoffs. At some point the decline for some of these guys will get a little steeper than it has been. I would argue it has already started for Letang. Will this be the year for some more of them? It is certainly possible.
Going into the 2025-26 season I thought there was at least a chance the Penguins were going to be better than everybody expected, especially given the makeup of the forward unit. And that was before we knew that Ben Kindel was going to be an NHL player — and a very good one! — right away.
So let’s take that same mindset into this season and if there is a pathway for them to better than most people expect.
The first factor here is the reality the Penguins still have $16.9 million in salary cap space at their disposal and a couple of months to still add to the roster. I don’t know if that is Jason Robertson or somebody else, but there is definitely still the path for a big move of some kind should they find the right match. I feel like the Robertson hope is dwindling more and more each day, but there is a definite opportunity to do something.
But even if there isn’t another big move, the most obvious pathway for another “better than expected” season rests with the forwards. Again.
Even with Anthony Mantha and Noel Accairi leaving, this should still be a very deep group that will be capable of rolling four lines every night and scoring a lot of goals. Going down to Wilkes-Barre/Scranton I feel like there are legitimately 17 or 18 forwards that can play meaningful NHL minutes this season, and play them well enough to compete.
That includes, obviously, Sidney Crosby who is still a top-line player whose presence alone is going to give the Penguins a chance on most nights over an 82-game season.
But there are also the wild-card factors with the forwards and the potential improvement that could come from the younger-ish players in the lineup.
- How much better is a 19-year-old Ben Kindel with a full year of NHL experience under his belt? Is there a potential for a big breakout here? That changes the math for a lot of things.
- What does Egor Chinakhov look like in Pittsburgh in a full season? With a three-year, $18 million contract there is at least some belief from the front office. The talent is certainly there. That would also change the math.
- Does somebody like a Nicholas Robertson or Elmer Soderblom breakout the way Chinakhov did? The underlying numbers suggest at least some chance for it.
- I would even expand that a little to the defense and Kaedan Korczak, who spent the past few years excelling in a smaller role with the Vegas Golden Knights and could have a chance for a bigger role here.
There are some potentially high ceilings there.
As it relates to the latter point and Korczak, half of the defense has been turned over with Korczak, Declan Carlile and Trevor van Riemsdyk all joining the roster, along with a full season of Sam Girard. I am still a little bullish on Girard and want to see what a fresh start to the season does for him (especially if they can get him away from Letang), and I at least like the profile of the new additions. van Riemsdyk is rock solid defender, and has been for some time. The fact he was the first guy they signed in free agency, right after the signing period opened, is a good indication they had their eyes on him as a primary target.
The biggest weakness for the 2025-26 Penguins was their defensive play, and they did spend a lot of resources in overhauling that unit.
They finished the regular season 20th in expected goals per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play, 23rd in scoring chances against and 22nd in high-danger scoring chances against.
There are a lot of new faces on that unit now, and it does not include the possibility of somebody like a Harrison Brunicke (who seemed to get better across the board as the season progressed) or Owen Pickering getting a chance.
The bigger X-factor, however, is going to be with the goalies, and there is arguably nothing that will impact the floor and ceiling of this team more than that. And it is something that was not particularly good over the full season a year ago.
They finished 24th in the league in all-situations save percentage, but were a little better in goals saved above expected (plus 10 saved above expected).
They seem fully on board with the Sergei Murashov and Arturs Silovs duo, and it is without question the biggest mystery and unknown on the roster. The upside is significant. The floor is low. You just never know how young goalies are going to play, and you just never know what that is going to look like over a full season and behind a questionable defense. I could see these guys being the reason they make the playoffs again and potentially go further. I could see them being the reason they unintentionally end up high on the lottery odds.
It is clearly not a team that thinks it is a Stanley Cup winner right now. But it is also a team with a real chance to exceed expectations again, even if there are a lot of unknown variables behind that.
