Before the Kansas City Chiefs’ Week 4 matchup against the Baltimore Ravens, every member of Arrowhead Pride’s panel correctly picked the Chiefs to win. Our composite prediction was for a 27-23 Kansas City victory,
which carried 26 points of error from the 37-20 final. A relatively small group of our readers (14%) correctly predicted the Chiefs would collect a blowout — but apart from about one in four who thought the Ravens would win, a majority also thought it would be a close Kansas City victory.
In Week 5, the Chiefs are on the road to play the Jacksonville Jaguars on “Monday Night Football.” According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Kansas City is favored by three points.
Let’s see what the staff — and our readers — think about the matchup.
Nate Christensen (@natech32)
It’s easy to overlook Jacksonville, but they’re a pretty good team. If wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. doesn’t drop a fourth-down pass against the Cincinnati Bengals, the team would be 4-0. The defense has played above expectations — and right now, head coach Liam Coen is one of the NFL’s best playcallers. But while the team has a decent base of talent, they haven’t yet faced a team of Kansas City’s caliber. The Chiefs turned a corner against the Ravens. I expect them to keep that positive momentum going.
Chiefs 24, Jaguars 16
John Dixon (@Arrowheadphones)
Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has always admired Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence — and now he’s impressed with the new scheme in which Lawrence is thriving. “It looks like a quarterback that is really comfortable in a system that is new,” he said on Friday. “You usually don’t see that right off the bat. They sure have put it together pretty good, pretty quick.” But this is still a team that has been depending on its running game and an opportunistic defense. As long as Kansas City’s defense can prevent big plays on the ground — and the offense avoids coughing up the ball — the Chiefs’ third win should be there for the taking.
Chiefs 30, Jaguars 20
Maurice Elston (@MrMauriceElston)
The Chiefs enter Monday night at 2-2 after a convincing win over Baltimore, while Jacksonville sits at 3-1 behind a defense that has thrived on turnovers. The Jaguars boast a plus-nine turnover margin, but they’ve yet to be tested by an elite quarterback. Facing Patrick Mahomes — who rarely gives defenses extra chances — will be a different challenge altogether. Offensively, Jacksonville has shown a solid ground attack, but Lawrence has just five touchdown passes against four interceptions through four games. That lack of production could prove costly if Kansas City’s attack keeps its rhythm. The Jaguars’ defensive ends are capable of creating problems, but if the Chiefs’ tackles hold up, Mahomes should have time to exploit mismatches. Kansas City may not light up the scoreboard with another 37-point performance, but its efficiency on both sides of the ball should be enough to take control.
Chiefs 28, Jaguars 17
Mark Gunnels (@MarkAGunnels)
After starting the season 0-2, things are starting to feel normal again for the Chiefs, who have won their last two games. At 2-2, the team seems to have hit a healthy reset — especially with Xavier Worthy back in the lineup. Now they have a chance to move above 0.500 with a win over Jacksonville, and I believe they’ll get the job done. Yes, the Jaguars are 3-1, but I’m not fully buying what they’re selling. Their defense is averaging three takeaways per game — a pace I don’t believe is sustainable. Meanwhile, Lawrence has already thrown four interceptions this season. If Kansas City takes care of the ball, the result should be another win.
Chiefs 31, Jaguars 20
Caleb James (@CJScoobs)
Jacksonville has used its running game to control the ball — and possesses an opportunistic defense that leads the NFL in takeaways. Ball security will be at a premium for Kansas City, but it will be interesting to see how aggressively the team pushes the ball downfield. Mahomes was dialed in last week, and the return of Worthy opened up aspects of the Chiefs’ offense that we haven’t seen in some time. Defensively, if the Chiefs can stop Travis Etienne, they can slow down Jacksonville’s offense. Taking away the run game — and Lawrence’s quick reads — should prove successful.
Chiefs 24, Jaguars 16
Rocky Magaña (@RockyMagana)
I picked the Jaguars to win their division earlier this season, and I stand by that — but I also think the Chiefs are out of their league. Jacksonville has a solid run defense, but it’s also one of the most passed-on teams in the NFL. I expect Kansas City to stretch the field with its speedy wide receivers. On defense, Etienne is the Jaguars’ most dangerous offensive weapon right now. Still, I believe in Brian Thomas Jr. — and I’m excited to get a good look at Travis Hunter. This should be a fun game, but I expect the Chiefs to win by double digits.
Chiefs 34, Jaguars 20
Jared Sapp (@TrumanChief)
The narrative has been that the Jaguars are a relatively untested 3-1 team, though their Week 4 victory over the San Francisco 49ers suddenly looks better after San Francisco’s “Thursday Night Football” win this week. I think Jacksonville is a legitimate playoff contender — especially given the mediocrity of the AFC South — but a confident Kansas City team will be a bigger test. Lawrence has been sacked 11 times in three career matchups against Spagnuolo’s defense, and I expect Kansas City’s defensive coordinator to craft another top-notch game plan. Jacksonville’s defense has played very well through the first month, but I think Reid and Mahomes will have enough answers to come out on top.
Chiefs 24, Jaguars 20
Matt Stagner (@stagdsp)
After last week’s full-squad victory, this team’s confidence should be high heading into Monday night. The Jaguars have been very good. They not only have offensive playmakers, but a defense that gets after the quarterback. But nothing has really changed. This is still a Chiefs team that is led by the best quarterback in the game and a Hall of Fame head coach. Mahomes found his rhythm last week. While he’s always confident, but now he looks confident in his offensive line, too. Worthy proved he was exactly what this offense needed, and I expect he’ll find the end zone against Jacksonville. Isiah Pacheco has faced his share of criticism, but I’m waiting for his 2025 breakout game — and it could come this week. Chris Jones and the rest of #SackNation should feast against Jacksonville’s subpar offensive line, perhaps forcing a couple of turnovers that keep this one from being close.
Chiefs 38, Jaguars 24
With their predictions aggregated, our panelists expect the Chiefs to win 29-19.
What do you think?
2025 Standings
| TW | LW | Staffer | W | L | Pct | Err |
| 1 | 1 | Jared Sapp | 3 | 1 | 0.7500 | 22.0 |
| 2 | 2 | Maurice Elston | 3 | 1 | 0.7500 | 22.5 |
| 3 | 3 | Nate Christensen | 2 | 2 | 0.5000 | 19.5 |
| 4 | 4 | Rocky Magaña | 2 | 2 | 0.5000 | 21.5 |
| 4 | 5 | Caleb James | 2 | 2 | 0.5000 | 21.5 |
| 6 | 7 | Matt Stagner | 2 | 2 | 0.5000 | 22.5 |
| 7 | 6 | John Dixon | 2 | 2 | 0.5000 | 24.0 |
| 8 | 8 | Mark Gunnels | 2 | 2 | 0.5000 | 26.0 |
In Week 4, Matt Stagner and Caleb James turned in substantially different predictions — 27-19 and 35-28 — but both carried 20 points of error to lead the panel. Rocky Magaña’s call for a 24-20 Kansas City win was the next closest, missing by 26 total points. Four panelists had 28 points of error in their predictions.
To calculate a prediction’s points of error, the differences between the prediction and the actual score in point spread, home team score and away team score are added together. For example, a prediction calls for a 17-10 Chiefs win. They end up winning 16-10, so there were two points of error: the point spread was off by one point, the Kansas City score missed by one point and the opponent’s score was predicted correctly. But if the Chiefs lose the game 17-10, there were 28 points of error in the prediction: the point spread was off by 14 (the difference between +7 and -7) and both scores missed by 7.
