This was all set in motion two years ago.
In a matter of weeks, the Detroit Lions handed record-breaking extensions to quarterback Jared Goff, receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, and offensive tackle Penei Sewell. Months later, Alim McNeill would join the group. Less than a year later, Jameson Williams would join the group of padded pockets, and Kerby Joseph did the same last offseason.
At the time, most of us celebrated Detroit’s ability to draft, develop, and reward their young players. It’s a great way
of building a core of blue chip players and raising the floor of the team. National analysts praised the Lions for being a model franchise, and Lions general manager Brad Holmes was winning Executive of the Year awards.
But all of that success comes at a price. The NFL is in the business of parity, and they have several mechanisms to ensure that sustained success is not easy. The more a team wins, the lower their draft picks. If a team loses a bunch of talent in free agency, the NFL tries to reward them with compensatory picks. And, most importantly, a strict salary cap prevents teams from adding an unlimited amount of talent and money.
Holmes built this team from the ground up, no easy task. But he’s now in the midst of an even more difficult endeavor: maintaining success. From the beginning his goal in doing so was clear: continue to draft, develop, and extend.
We’re seeing the consequences of that strategy this year. The Lions parted ways with heavy contributors this offseason already. Gone are Taylor Decker, Graham Glasgow, David Montgomery, Amik Robertson, Alex Anzalone, and Roy Lopez. The one common thread amongst all six of those players? They were not drafted by Holmes. They were never part of this team’s long-term vision.
And for the most part, Holmes is year ahead of preparing for those players’ departure. They drafted Jahmyr Gibbs the same year they initially signed David Montgomery. They drafted both Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw the same offseason they signed Robertson. The defense was transferred from Anzalone to Jack Campbell last year. And Tyleik Williams is set to assume plenty of Roy Lopez’s snaps from last year. Kalif Raymond could very well be replaced by last year’s seventh-round pick Dominic Lovett.
Not only are the Lions able to offset those mega-extensions with cheap rookie deals, but they’re getting a lot younger in the process, too. Here’s a look at what age each of the players the Lions let go will be at the start of the 2026 season:
- Taylor Decker: 33
- Graham Glasgow: 34
- David Montgomery: 29
- Alex Anzalone: 31
- Roy Lopez: 29
- Kalif Raymond: 32
- Amik Robertson: 38
The players set to replace those losses are:
- Larry Borom: 27 — or draft pick
- Cade Mays: 27
- Isiah Pacheco: 27
- Jack Campbell: 26 or Derrick Barnes: 27
- Tyleik Williams: 23
- Dominic Lovett: 23
- Ennis Rakestraw: 24
Per Spotrac, on the first day of legal tampering this year, the Lions suddenly sported the fourth-youngest roster in the NFL (Teddy Bridgewater has likely tipped the scales since).
Of course, this strategy comes with plenty of risks and downsides. Just because a roster is getting younger does not mean it’s getting better. It’s a huge jump in faith to believe that Lovett can fully replace Raymond. Rakestraw is a complete unknown while Robertson provided a strong level of trust. There’s no guarantee that Cade Mays fits in Detroit’s scheme or that Tyleik Williams takes a Year 2 jump.
Additionally, every draft mistake Holmes makes is going to be magnified because of Detroit’s small margin for error. Detroit would be in a great spot right now if Giovanni Manu was ready to take over at left tackle. Clearly, he’s not, and Holmes has been dragged for that pick. Detroit has now gone through an odd divorce with Decker, had to sign a stop-gap option in free agency, and they’ll likely have to spend high draft capital just to try and match Decker’s performance from last year.
In fact, that entire 2024 draft class could be the mistake that sets this team back a year or two. If Arnold and Rakestraw can’t replace the productivity of Rakestraw and company, the Lions will find themselves with a huge downgrade in a secondary that already struggled in 2025. Sione Vaki doesn’t even seem under consideration to replace Montgomery, and the lost draft capital in the several trade ups in that draft has left the Lions full of holes with no clear young replacements.
The other risk is the nature of those big contracts they’re handing out. Just like any big free agency splashes, there’s a chance things go massively wrong after extensions. Unfortunately, the Lions have been on the bad end of luck recently when it comes to those extensions. A month after signing a four-year, $97 million extension, Alim McNeill tore his ACL. Just months after the ink on his four-year, $86 million deal dried, Kerby Joseph developed a knee condition that cost him most of the season and has raised questions about the long-term viability of his career.
Add up all those little mistakes and misfortunes, and it’s enough to disrupt Holmes’ high-wire act of balancing the budget and equipping the roster with talent.
But the alternative isn’t any easier. Detroit could let some of their young talent walk, spend wild in free agency, and try to take advantage of small windows. But there is a laundry list of teams that went on a spending spree in free agency just to see those plans come crashing down. It’s easy to point to the Rams and the Eagles as prime examples of “going all in” with offseason additions. But let’s not overlook the top-10 teams in offseason spending from 2020-25. Those teams are:
- Texans
- Panthers
- Jaguars
- Dolphins
- Patriots
- Jets
- Commanders
- Raiders
- Giants
- Seahawks
Meanwhile, the bottom-10 spenders:
32. Packers
31. Ravens
30. Buccaneers
29. Chiefs
28. Rams
27. Eagles
26. Colts
25. Cowboys
24. Saints
23. 49ers
That isn’t to say that it can’t work. The first list includes both Super Bowl teams from this past year. But just like Holmes’ approach, there are huge risks and the odds are stacked against this strategy.
