Don’t let any other fan base tell you the Chicago Bears didn’t earn their strong 2025 season. They were talented, clutch, and had a nose for the football.
However, it is possible (likely?) that the Bears show regression in one or more areas that they were exceptional at in 2025. The other side of the coin (which we will get to another day) is that the Bears may also improve in a number of categories compared to last season. There is no such thing as linear projection! Only chaos!
What category will the Bears regress in during the 2026 season?
Before we answer the
question, let’s look at some of the categories the Bears excelled at for the 2025 season:
- Takeaways: 33 (1st)
- Turnovers: 11 (1st)
- 4th Down Conversion % Against: 47.8% (8th)
- Offensive Rushing Yards: 2456 (3rd)
- Sacks Allowed: 24 (3rd)
- 4th Quarter Comebacks: 6 (1st)
- 3rd Down %: 42.7% (7th)
There are others, but this is a pretty good snapshot of who the Bears were last season. Good on money downs. Ran the ball consistently. Took the ball away. Protected the ball. Played clutch at the end of games. The 2025 Bears.
Now, I think there are a couple that I view as being unlikely for regression — 3rd down % and offensive rushing yards.
The 3rd down percentage shows me an offensive coaching staff that has a good handle on the game and has coached to the details. Given that Ben and his staff will only be heading into year 2, I would expect that number to improve.
The second is offensive rushing yards. When you look at the best rushing attacks in the league, there are a couple of things that jump out. The first is that each of the top 6 rushing attacks (Bills, Ravens, Bears, Commanders, Giants, Patriots) have mobile QBs that help their rushing attack out. The second is that the other top four attacks all had their longest rushes of the year at >64 yards, whereas the Bears sits at 39 yards. This tells me that the Bears lacked home run explosion, but were consistent breaking off chunk runs. This is exemplified by their league leading 3.1 yards before contact per attempt.
So what’s left? I think the most obvious answer is regression in the turnover differential, as the Bears were exceptional on both sides of the ball. However, while there is very likely to be some regression, I would be shocked if they aren’t still at the top of the league. The combination of ball security drilled into Caleb and the takeaway mentality from Al Harris and Dennis Allen makes me think they will still be elite on both sides.
Which brings me to a tough pill: sacks allowed.
Don’t get me wrong — I don’t expect the Bears to be at the bottom of the league in sacks allowed like they were two seasons ago, but given Caleb’s play style and the turnover on the OL, I would be surprised if they only allow a sack total within the 20’s again. I also think that a Ben Johnson offense that loses a safety blanket in DJ Moore and continues to build around Odunze, Burden, Walker, etc. will be more aggressive downfield, leading to more sacks (and more downfield completions).
But who knows? The Bears may improve in several of these categories in 2026. That’s what makes it fun — we have no idea at this point in the offseason.
