It’s been a disaster in Queens. The Mets are no longer the second-worst team in baseball, now merely tied with the Royals for the fourth-worst record. There’s some kind of a reset coming, with the team itself leaking that outside of Juan Soto and a couple young building blocks, anyone who can be moved is subject to being moved. Enter Bo Bichette.
Still just 28, Bichette inked a three-year, $126 million contract in the offseason, one that came with a pair of opt-outs after this year and next. It has
not yet worked out for the Mets, with their shortstop/third baseman managing just a 90 wRC+ and a break-even defensive performance. Opt-outs or no, his contract stands out as one of the deals that the club would love to get off the books, and that makes him available at somewhat of a discount.
The question that needs to be answered, given the Yankees have a need for more thump at third base, is whether or not we can expect Bichette to hit better than he has to this point.
Off the top, FanGraphs’ Depth Charts projections thinks so, pegging him for a 110 wRC+ the rest of the season. If that bears out, that’s 26 points better than Ryan McMahon is managing on the season, and 28 points better than the Yankees have seen from the proverbial hot corner in 2026. Bichette’s underperforming all of his major expected stats — xBA by 27 points, xSLG by 39 points, and xwOBA by 32. All else equal, Bo should start hitting better.
And truth be told, he has been hitting better than his absolutely putrid first two months. There’s something to be encouraged about with Bo.
The problem is, baseball can stay irrational longer than you can stay in playoff contention. Bichette should hit better the rest of the way. I don’t know if the transition to a new team was part of the problem he had in the season’s first eight weeks, but if it is, you run the risk of that happening again. Bichette’s injury troubles over the last three seasons also introduce some significant downside risk on the contract.
There’s a lot of incentive for Bo to overperform in the stretch run of the year, so he can opt out and net himself another $100 millionish guaranteed. However, that injury concern plus the uncertainty of the CBA negotiations could force his hand and have him decide on a little more stability, in which case the Yankees need to work out a significant amount of salary relief in any deal.
A significant amount of salary relief increases the prospect cost going back to Queens, and this is where it just gets too complicated with Bichette. Maybe he comes to the Bronx, hits to a .360 wOBA like he did a year ago, and gives the Yankees real production at third. There’s just not enough certainty in that happening, weighed against the downsides of injury and the contract structure. Prospect capital is best spent elsewhere than bailing out Steve Cohen’s backup backup signing.
