Coming off a loss at BYU where the Cyclones looked constantly one step behind, TJ Otzelburger’s squad will play their second of a two leg trip to Utah as they take on a woeful Utah Utes team that has clinched just two conference wins so far this season. While road games in the Big 12 should always present a baseline level of challenge, Iowa State is currently opening at a 90% chance to win per ESPN analytics, and a -13.5 favorite per DraftKings is one of the largest margins to cover on the road you
will see in the conference.
The sky is not falling
I acknowledge that I am going to be one of the last people to push the destruct button, but if you told me that Iowa State would go 2-1 over their matchups against Kansas, Houston, and BYU, I would take it without asking additional questions. I think a lot of the fanbase would agree with this, and while their loss to BYU did expose how the Cyclones could get into trouble in March on the wrong day, this is still a team that can match up against anyone in the country and has the ability to make a deep run.
What went wrong for Iowa State against BYU? 4 fouls for Momcilovic certainly did not help. Even in his 25 minutes of action, Momcilovic was hounded while on offense, which resulted in just five points and 1-5 shooting from the field. In the final portion of the second half, BYU went on a 13-0 run that ultimately became the difference maker as the Cougars won by ten. For those who follow Ryan Hammer, you would classify that run as a “Kill Shot”, aptly named for Saturday’s result.
While it is easy to focus on the bad from Saturday, and there is plenty to look at, it is also important to acknowledge the good. Tamin Lipsey had one of his best individual performances of his senior season, and shooting 3-4 from three reestablishes his ability to be a threat from beyond the arc and as attacking the rim. Jamarion Batemon notched his second highest scoring total in conference play so far, and has been playing some great basketball when the team needs him most.
Free throws were fine on Saturday
Everyone rejoice! For the first time since their 34 point blowout of Kansas State, Iowa State shot above 70% from the free throw line. Games in March can come down to the finest of margins, but free throws can be the difference maker for if a game is competitive in the final moments. The Iowa State fanbase wants to avoid a free throw battle at all costs, but maybe this game is the start of a new team from the free throw line? Probably not, but I can continue to grasp at straws.
Utah isn’t just on the struggle bus, they’re the driver.
Currently ranked 117th in the NET and 107th on KenPom, the Utes have the second worst average scoring margin in the conference as they currently sit at the bottom of the conference with an abysmal 2-12 record. The Utes have not been known for their basketball in the past decade, sporting just three NIT appearances on their resume. This will be just the fifth game between the two schools all-time and only the second in the 21st century.
Terrance Brown leads the way for the Utes in both points and assists, averaging 20.2 points and 3.8 assists. For reference, Tamin Lipsey and Joshua Jefferson both average over five assists per game. Keanu Dawes is fourth in the conference in rebounds, averaging a staggering 9.2 per game. Don McHenry rounds out the offense with an impressive 17.4 points per game.
While Iowa State has demonstrated an obvious struggle when playing on the road, they can also enforce their strength against the bottom of the conference, blowing out Oklahoma State and Kansas State who are having similarly tough seasons. It’s still a road game in the Big 12, but this would be the biggest blemish on Iowa State’s record so far if they were to drop this game.
What are the keys to victory for Iowa State? Here are my thoughts.
- Tamin Lipsey and Kilian Toure defensive masterclasses. Averaging 37.6 points per game, Terrance Brown and Don McHenry are the two biggest threats for the Utes. The defensive prowess of Lipsey and Toure has been talked about extensively, so if those two can demonstrate their defensive prowess, it will be a long night for the Utes
- Get everyone involved on offense. I will always take an offense that can call upon anyone to provide real threats on the offensive side over an offense that is reliant on two or three established stars. In the 17-4 run in the final minutes of the Houston game, five different players scored, with just four points coming from starters. When everyone is involved on the offense, it gets incredibly difficult to defend.
- Win the free throws. This is more of a side quest and not an absolute must in order to win, but a good night from the free throw line could establish the confidence needed when the margin of error inevitably thins as the regular season comes to a close. It’s an easy thing to fix, and nobody wants free throws to be the reason a team falls short in March .
Prediction: ISU 82 – Utah 65
