It’s kind of hard to believe that the final West Coast swing of the season has finally arrived and the season hasn’t even hit the All-Star break yet. Whether you consider that to be a blessing (that this won’t come in August or September) or a curse (that it’s usually rough going out there no matter what time of year it is), there’s no denying that it’s coming at a bit of a weird moment for the Braves.
It sure looked like things were hitting a bit of a nadir for the Braves after they dropped consecutive
series to the White Sox (understandable), the Mets (annoying) and the Giants (concerning) with the Brewers looming in the near horizon. As it turned out, the Braves proved that they’re a resilient bunch and ended up taking a dramatic series win in order to salvage the homestand and also stop the bleeding in what had been a rough stretch of games.
Now, we’re going to see that resilience get put to the test. Will the Braves keep the good times rolling out West? Or will the state of California trip up the Braves yet again? It’s time to look at what lies ahead this week for the Braves.
June 22-24: San Diego Padres
Current Record: 39-37 Projected Record (via FanGraphs): 80-82
I mean, it goes without saying that obviously we’d all like to see the Braves have the lead in the ninth inning for all three games this series. If they don’t or the game goes into extras, they’re more-than-likely going to see Mason Miller and opposing hitters have not enjoyed seeing Mason Miller so far this season. He’s currently sitting on an ERA of 0.87 (22 ERA-) and a FIP of 0.33 (8 FIP-. Yes, EIGHT. League average is 100, by the way) where he’s given up 13 hits and 12 walks opposed to 61 strikeouts across 31 innings of work. That is absolutely horrifying to deal with.
However, the Padres are in the unenviable position of a relief pitcher being their best player. Heading into Sunday’s action, Mason Miller (who is not an every day player) had produced 2.0 fWAR on the season in 30 games. Fernando Tatis Jr. (who is an everyday player) has produced 1.7 fWAR. That discrepancy basically sums up how things have gone for the Padres. They’ve got some solid pitching — Adrian Morejon is also incredibly tough coming out of the bullpen, Walker Buehler has been trying to get things back on track with the Padres and Michael King has a track record of success against the Braves. Combine that with the pitcher-friendly park factor at Petco Park and we could be in for some low-scoring games during this series.
That’s also assuming that the Padres continue to scuffle at the plate, themselves. It is a little concerning that this crew has started to heat up a bit — they’ve scored at least five runs in six of their last 10 games and they’ll be facing a Braves pitching staff that (while they did stabilize a bit in the series win against the Brewers) hasn’t exactly been in shutdown mode in recent times.
Of course, it’d be lovely if Atlanta’s pitching staff did round back into form but it’s still hard to dismiss a lineup that’ll include Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Gavin Sheets and Ty France in it. Samad Taylor has provided some exciting moments as well and then you have the ever-looming threat of Manny Machado as well. Machado has been mostly scuffling so far this season but he’s got 13 homers so he could very well just pop one over the fence at any given moment. Grant Holmes, JR Ritchie and Martín Pérez will have to be on top of things in their starts this week.
Monday, June 22 at 10:10 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Tuesday, June 23 at 9:40 p.m. ET (BravesVision, Gray TV)
Wednesday, June 23 at 8:40 p.m ET (BravesVision)
June 25-27: San Francisco Giants
Current Record: 31-46 Projected Record: 74-88
The last time the Braves saw the Giants, they were busy hitting balls all around Truist Park and over the fences as well — which was surprising considering how difficult it had been for this team to hit for power on a regular basis. Whatever magic they had in Atlanta was completely lost by the time they made it to Miami to complete their East Coast swing, as the Marlins ended up sweeping them.
San Francisco hit two homers (Rafael Devers in the opener and Casey Schmitt in the middle game) over the course of those three losses — now mind you, they hit back-to-back dingers against the Braves twice across two games in one day, so you tell me what’s happening there (other than baseball being a weird sport). It’s not like the Marlins were rolling, themselves, since they had just got done dropping a series against the Phillies. I guess that’s why you play the game on the field and not on a spreadsheet!
In Cobb County, the Giants got contributions from their usual suspects like Luis Arraez, Casey Schmitt, Jung Hoo Lee and Matt Chapman but Rafael Devers also did a lot of damage as well. Obviously, keeping those guys quiet instead of letting each and every one of them run rampant at the plate will be key to Atlanta’s chances of getting some revenge in San Francisco. Bryce Eldridge might just be difficult to keep quiet at the plate no matter what, so there’s that. Either way, it’s already evident that when these guys get rolling, they can be dangerous.
The good news as far as pitching matchups go is that the Braves are going to avoid Landen Roupp and apparently everybody in Atlanta’s clubhouse should be thrilled about (probably) not seeing Robbie Ray again. The bad news is that the Braves will likely have to face Logan Webb, who has given the Braves serious trouble nearly every time he’s faced Atlanta. The lone two exceptions happened in 2023 but that was the season where the Braves were taking nearly everybody out back behind the woodshed so that appears to clearly be an exceptional case for the Braves. The rest of San Francisco’s pitching staff is vulnerable so assuming the Giants haven’t just completely figured out the Braves, Atlanta could do some damage in this series. We’ll see what happens!
Friday, June 26 at 10:15 p.m. ET (BravesVision)
Saturday, June 27 at 9:05 p.m. ET (BravesVision)
Sunday, June 28 at 4:05 p.m. ET (BravesVision)
