The Pittsburgh Penguins snapped a couple of losing streaks on Sunday night with their 4-3 win over the Montreal Canadiens. The most important streak it snapped is the eight-game losing streak they were on. Arguably the more satisfying streak that it snapped was their nine-game shootout losing streak that went all the way back to the early stages of the 2024-25 season.
Ending both streaks is important.
They needed something positive to happen on the ice to just change some of the vibe around the team.
They needed to win a shootout just to stop giving away extra points.
Arturs Silovs needed to win a shootout just to change one of the narratives around him. He has now stopped three of the past four shootout attempts he has faced. So there is that. That is something.
But now that all of this happened and the Penguins are back in the win column, what does it mean for the team as they get ready to head into the holiday break later this week? After Sunday’s win the Penguins own a .557 points percentage, which would be a 91-point pace over an 82-game season. That is 11th place in the Eastern Conference, and two points off the pace of the current playoff cut-line, which is at 93 points entering the week.
When the losing streak began, the Penguins had the third-highest points percentage in the Eastern Conference, the sixth-highest in the NHL, and were comfortably in a playoff position. Given that it was already two months into the season, it was not unreasonable to start thinking about the playoffs. The expectations for the season changed based on the early results.
Now that the losing streak has happened and they find themselves in their current position, it is not unreasonable to think that the expectations have changed again and reverted back to their preseason level. Their current place in the standings is probably about where most people expected them to be. They are not as bad as the results during their losing streak. They are probably not as good as their 8-2-2 start. They are most likely somewhere in the middle. Which is what their overall record for the season is.
Call it regression to the mean. Call it water finding its level. Call it back luck. Whatever it is, the Penguins are currently where we thought they would be in late December. Clearly not the worst team in the league. Clearly not a definite playoff team.
Injuries have certainly played a role in the streak. Evgeni Malkin’s absence has been significant and not only taken away a key leader and point-producer, but also limited the effectiveness of Anthony Mantha and Justin Brazeau on the second line.
Blake Lizotte’s absence has completely ruined the penalty kill (or at least contributed to it).
But it would it be unwise to just chalk everything up to that.
The defensive problems we all know are present on the roster are starting to get exposed more and more. They basically have one defensive pairing that can be truly relied on (Erik Karlsson and Parker Wotherspoon), and even that has slumped recently.
The goaltending, which was always going to be a wild-card with this team, has significantly regressed.
You can put together a compelling argument that the return of Malkin and Lizotte will improve the scoring and the forward depth. I am not sure there is anything that improves the defense or makes the goaltending more consistent. That is where the lowered expectations come in. Because we saw all of those things on display over the past two weeks.
The Penguins have two games this week sandwiched around the holiday break, and in what feels like a broken record to say at this point, they are both winnable.
On Tuesday afternoon they play a Toronto Maple Leafs team that looks like it is just waiting for a coaching change. They are near the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings, they have some of the worst underlying and possession numbers in the league and even Auston Matthews looks like a player that does not have anything going on for him right now.
After the Christmas break they play a Chicago Blackhawks team that is not only still one of the worst in the NHL, but is currently without its best player — Connor Bedard — and looks even more uncompetitive without him.
Maybe they get four points out of this week. Maybe that puts them back into a playoff position for now. Either way, this team largely seems to be what we thought it would be and where we thought it would be. It just has taken a very strange and unexpected path in getting there.
