College football is back in full force with week zero already in the books and our first top-25 matchup already logged from across the pond. Beyond that, we’ve gotten an early look at one of Iowa’s opponents and now we’re diving in with both feet as week one is here and we have a home matchup in Kinnick to look forward to in just a few days.
But before we get to week one, there’s a short blip of time remaining to think about the broader picture for this 2025 season for the Iowa Hawkeyes. As you’ll
recall, last week we asked the fanbase to go game-by-game and make their predictions for the Hawkeyes this season. Now we’re back with the results.
Vegas has slightly tempered expectations for Iowa this year. FanDuel Sportsbook set the season long win total over/under at 7.5 wins for the Hawkeyes. The Hawkeye fanbase is a bit more optimistic. That’s not always been a good thing – higher expectations lead to more disappointment when things don’t go well.
Iowa has a very difficult schedule in 2025 with four matchups against preseason top-25 teams. Week two brings a road trip to #22 Iowa State, who just took down #18 Kansas State in Dublin in week 0. Then, of course, there are a pair of home matchups with top-10 teams with #2 Penn State and #7 Oregon coming to town. The other ranked matchup comes at the end of September when Iowa hosts #20 Indiana, fresh off a College Football Playoff berth.
And yet, the consensus among the BHGP community is a 9-3 record for the Hawkeyes. Perhaps even more interestingly, the fanbase is calling for Iowa to go 2-2 in those ranked matchups and pick up a top-25 road win early in the season.
On the whole, fans have a pretty consistent in belief Iowa loses to Penn State, Oregon and USC. Recall, that matchup with the Trojans is on the road out in LA and comes the week after Iowa hosts #7 Oregon. The Hawkeyes are notoriously shaky heading west of the Rockies (they lost at UCLA a season ago) and then add in that trip to Hollywood just a week after a massive home game against the Ducks and it sure feels like a good bet they take a schedule loss there.
In total, 85% of fans think Iowa will lose to the Nittany Lions. Given the #2 ranking and expectations for a national title run, it might be better to question what the other 15% of fans are expecting in that matchup.
A full 70% of you think Iowa will lose at home to Oregon. Again, put differently, 30% of the fanbase is expecting a win over a top-10 team. Getting one when you aren’t expecting it sure feels a lot different than not getting one when you are expecting it.
As for that last predicted loss, 64% of respondents are calling for the Hawkeyes to fall in their latest trip out west. That feels like a decent mix given USC is not exactly expected to be a juggernaut this year and the last time these two teams faced off, we saw maybe the best offensive output of the Brian Ferentz era.
As confident as they are in those losses, the fanbase seems even more confident in the wins. The lowest percentage of responders calling for an Iowa win (in the 9 games where the prediction overall is for a win) is against Iowa State at a staggering 72%.
Little respect for our rivals to the west, despite their week 0 win overseas and their top-25 ranking. I suppose that’s par for the course when the Cyclones haven’t beaten Iowa in Ames since 2014.
Some other notable games to call out with rivals: 95% of respondents expect Iowa to beat Minnesota. That’s a massive number and perhaps a bit scary considering the potential for a schedule loss there coming the week after Iowa hosts #2 Penn State. That would be quite the gut punch.
On the road at Wisconsin, 82% of fans think the Hawkeyes take care of business against the Badgers as they continue to try and find their new identity. And to end the year, 81% of fans think Iowa wins in Lincoln. I would venture to guess an even higher number of Husker fans expect to win that game. I would also guess that if we ran the poll and specified Iowa would either win on a last second field goal or not at all, we would have roughly the same number of votes for the walk-off winner.
Below is the full schedule for this season with the percent of respondents expecting an Iowa win.
8/30 – Iowa vs Albany – 99%
9/6 – Iowa at #22 Iowa State – 72%
9/13 – Iowa vs UMass – 99%
9/19 – Iowa at Rutgers – 96%
9/27 – Iowa vs #20 Indiana – 77%
10/11 – Iowa at Wisconsin – 82%
10/18 – Iowa vs #2 Penn State – 15%
10/25 – Iowa vs Minnesota – 95%
11/8 – Iowa vs #7 Oregon – 29%
11/15 – Iowa at USC – 36%
11/22 – Iowa vs Michigan State – 95%
11/28 – Iowa at Nebraska – 81%
The 9-3 expected finish is well above the Vegas win total and would mark the first time since 2019 the Hawkeyes have gone 9-3 in the regular season. Iowa, of course, went 10-2 in both 2021 and 2023.
There is certainly a lot of potential pitfalls to that prediction given the difficulty of the schedule. However, there is also the potential for some upside. Iowa went 1-3 in one-score games a year ago. That’s a bit of an anomaly for a program that has been built on winning in the margins. The Hawkeyes had gone 15-7 in one-score games over the five years heading into last season.
Iowa kicks off the season with a home opener in Kinnick on Saturday night. They play host to Albany at 5pm CT. The game will be broadcast on FS1.
