Cowboys projected to have 52% chance of making the playoffs

ARLINGTON, TEXAS - AUGUST 28: Tyler Guyton #60 and George Pickens #3 of the Dallas Cowboys react to a successful two-point conversion during the second half of the 2026 NFL preseason game against the New Orleans Saints at AT&T Stadium on August 28, 2026 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty

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What is the story about?

We have spent a lot of time over the last few months thinking about what the Dallas Cowboys are building for the 2026 NFL season. Really, we started back in March when free agency opened up, and haven’t stopped through the draft, OTAs, training camp, preseason, and now we sit on the very precipice of the 2026 season.

So how have the Cowboys done? We turn to some statistical models and expert input from ESPN to consider some answers.

Of course we need context for this, and a team’s recent accomplishments

or failings lean into a lot of what is predicted. For instance, the Cowboys are coming off two straight years of missing the playoffs. That will cool down any hot predictions for playoff success. They are also revamping a historically bad defense. It requires a leap of faith to believe they’ll settle that in one offseason.

So enough preamble, let’s see some of what ESPN has to say about the Cowboys upcoming season.

The headline gave away some of the game. The Cowboys have a 51.9% chance of making the playoffs. Does that sound right to you? Probably not based on the optimism that has invaded the fanbase’s thinkingthis offseason.

Question 1: What percentage chance would you give the Cowboys to make the playoffs this year?

ESPN gives Dallas a 33.9% chance of winning the division, behind the Eagles who are at 46.3% chance. (Good luck Washington and New York).

They have the Cowboys with a projected win total of 9.2 wins. We’ll round that off to 9-8 record. The Cowboys went 7-9-1 last year in a poor season. Only two more wins on the year feels somewhat low. Does it to you?

Question 2: What record would you give the Cowboys for the end of the year?

ESPN projects a top-end/low-end spread of a 12-5 record down to 7-10. One item playing into that is the Cowboys schedule which is ranked as fourth-hardest in the NFL.

Finally, they asked respected Cowboys observer Todd Archer to weigh in with what should be considered a success for the season. Archer said a return to the playoffs.

Is that your benchmark? Do you feel like they need to do more to be a success? Or is it more about success being a fixed defense and a balanced team for the future?